Prediction is one of the last frontiers in ecology. Indeed, predicting fine-scale species composition in natural systems is a complex challenge as multiple abiotic and biotic processes operate simultaneously to determine local species abundances. On the one hand, species intrinsic performance and their tolerance limits to different abiotic pressures modulate species abundances. On the other hand, there is growing recognition that species interactions play an equally important role in limiting or promoting such abundances within ecological communities. Here, we present a joint effort between ecologists and data scientists to use data-driven models to predict species abundances using reasonably easy to obtain data. We propose a sequential data-driven modeling approach that in a first step predicts the potential species abundances based on abiotic variables, and in a second step uses these predictions to model the realized abundances once accounting for species competition. Using a curated data set over five years we predict fine-scale species abundances in a highly diverse annual plant community. Our models show a remarkable spatial predictive accuracy using only easy-to-measure variables in the field, yet such predictive power is lost when temporal dynamics are taken into account. This result suggests that predicting future abundances requires longer time series analysis to capture enough variability. In addition, we show that these data-driven models can also suggest how to improve mechanistic models by adding missing variables that affect species performance such as particular soil conditions (e.g. carbonate availability in our case). Robust models for predicting fine-scale species composition informed by the mechanistic understanding of the underlying abiotic and biotic processes can be a pivotal tool for conservation, especially given the human-induced rapid environmental changes we are experiencing. This objective can be achieved by promoting the knowledge gained with classic modelling approaches in ecology and recently developed data-driven models.

Population dynamics has been modelled using differential equations almost since Malthus times, more than two centuries ago. Basic ingredients of population dynamics models are typically a growth rate, a saturation term in the form of Verhulst’s logistic brake, and a functional response accounting for interspecific interactions. However, intraspecific interactions are not usually included in the equations. The simplest models use linear terms to represent a simple picture of the nature; meanwhile, to represent more complex landscapes, it is necessary to include more terms with a higher order or that are analytically more complex. The problem to use a simpler or more complex model depends on many factors: mathematical, ecological, or computational. To address it, here we discuss a new model based on a previous logistic-mutualistic model. We have generalized the interspecific terms (for antagonistic and competitive relationships), and we have also included new polynomial terms to explain any intraspecific interaction. We show that, by adding simple intraspecific terms, new free-equilibrium solutions appear driving a much richer dynamics. These new solutions could represent more realistic ecological landscapes by including a new higher order term.

The World Trade Network (WTN) is a network of exchange flows among countries whose topological and statistical properties are a valuable source of information. Degree and strength (weighted degree) are key magnitudes to understand its structure and generative mechanisms. In this work, we describe a stochastic model that yields synthetic networks that closely mimic the properties of annual empirical data. The model combines two popular mechanisms of network generation: preferential attachment and multiplicative process. Agreement between empirical and synthetic networks is checked using the available series from 1962 to 2017.

Crop Wild Relatives (CWR) are a valuable source of genetic diversity that can be transferred to commercial crops, so their conservation will become a priority in the face of climate change. Bizarrely, in situ conserved CWR populations and the traits one might wish to preserve in them are themselves vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we used a quantitative machine learning predictive approach to project the resistance of CWR populations of lentils to a common disease, lentil rust, caused by fungus Uromyces viciae-fabae. Resistance is measured through a proxy quantitative value, DSr (Disease Severity relative), quite complex and expensive to get. Therefore, machine learning is a convenient tool to predict this magnitude using a well-curated georeferenced calibration set. Previous works have provided a binary outcome (resistant vs. non-resistant), but that approach is not fine enough to answer three practical questions: which variables are key to predict rust resistance, which CWR populations are resistant to rust under current environmental conditions, and which of them are likely to keep this trait under different climate change scenarios. We first predict rust resistance in present time for crop wild relatives that grow up inside protected areas. Then, we use the same models under future climate IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios to predict future DSr values. Populations that are rust-resistant by now and under future conditions are optimal candidates for further evaluation and in situ conservation of this valuable trait. We have found that rust-resistance variation as a result of climate change is not uniform across the geographic scope of the study (the Mediterranean basin), and that candidate populations share some interesting common environmental conditions.

International trade, the network that underpins globalization, shows an extreme inequality. Despite efforts of multilateral organizations to foster a more fair world through trade agreements, it is hard to assess the effect of these changes on such a complex system. We have measured, using numerical simulation on a recently published network model, the impact of simple policies to boost trade chances among the weakest economies. Results suggest that global inequality may be reduced improving trade among low-income economies.

Interactions between two different guilds of entities are pervasive in biology. They may happen at molecular level, like in a diseasome, or amongst individuals linked by biotic relationships, such as mutualism or parasitism. These sets of interactions are complex bipartite networks. Visualization is a powerful tool to explore and analyze them, but the most common plots, the bipartite graph and the interaction matrix, become rather confusing when working with real biological networks. We have developed two new types of visualization which exploit the structural properties of these networks to improve readability. A technique called k-core decomposition identifies groups of nodes that share connectivity properties. With the results of this analysis it is possible to build a plot based on information reduction (polar plot) and another which takes the groups as elementary blocks for spatial distribution (ziggurat plot). We describe the applications of both plots and the software to create them.