Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

Shannon, Lynne ... et. al.-- Contribution to the Theme Section ‘Trophodynamics in marine ecology’.-- 26 pages, 4 figures, 8 tables, supplementary material in http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/meps10821© Inter-Research and Fisheries and Oceans Canada 2014 Trophic level (TL)-based indicators have been widely used to examine fishing impacts in aquatic ecosystems and the induced biodiversity changes. However, much debate has ensued regarding discrepancies and challenges arising from the use of landings data from commercial fisheries to calculate TL indicators. Subsequent studies have started to examine survey-based and model-based indicators. In this paper, we undertake an extensive evaluation of a variety of TL indicators across 9 well-studied marine ecosystems by making use of model- as well as surveyand catch-based TL indicators. Using detailed regional information and data on fishing history, fishing intensity, and environmental conditions, we evaluate how well TL indicators are capturing fishing effects at the community level of marine ecosystems. Our results highlight that the differences observed between TL indicator values and trends is dependent on the data source and the TL cut-off point used in the calculations and is not attributable to an intrinsic problem with TLbased indicators. All 3 data sources provide useful information about the structural changes in the ecosystem as a result of fishing, but our results indicate that only model-based indicators represent fishing impacts at the whole ecosystem levelL.J.S. was supported through the South African Research Chair Initiative, funded through the South African Department of Science and Technology (DST) and administered by the South African National Research Foundation (NRF). M.C. was supported by the European Commission through the Marie Curie CIG grant to BIOWEB and the Spanish Research Program Ramon y Cajal. Y.J.S. and M.T. were supported by the French project EMIBIOS (FRB, contract no. APP-SCEN-2010-II). L.J.S. and Y.S. were also funded by the European collaborative project MEECE – Marine Ecosystem Evolution in a Changing Environment – (FP7, contract n°212085). A.B. was supported by Fisheries and Oceans Canada SPERA project ‘Ecosystem indicators for ecosystem monitoring at different scales’ (www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/science/ecosystem/ projects/detail-eng.asp?pid=21). K.K. was supported by Conservation International and the ‘Sea Around Us’ project, a collaboration between The University of British Columbia and The Pew Charitable Trusts. C.P.L. and C.P. were supported by the EU FP7 project DEVOTES (grant agreement no. 308392), www.devotes-project.eu. C.P.L. was also supported by Defra M1228. This is a contribution to the IndiSeas Working Group, endorsed by IOC-UNESCO (www.iocunesco.org) and the European Network of Excellence Euroceans (www.eur-oceans.eu).Peer Reviewe