The NCCN considers “baseline staging” (whole body CT or PET scan +/- brain MRI) for all asymptomatic melanoma patients with a positive sentinel lymph node biopsy. The true yield of these workups is unknown. We created cohorts of adult malignant melanoma patients, using the National Cancer Database (2012-2020) to mimic three common scenarios: (1) clinically node negative, with positive sentinel lymph node(s) (SLNB[+]); (2) clinically node negative, with negative sentinel lymph node(s) (SLNB[-]); (3) clinically node positive with confirmed lymph node metastases (cN[+] and pN[+]). Multivariable regression, supervised decision trees, and nomograms were constructed to assess the risk of metastases based on key features. 10,371 patients were SLNB[+], 55,172 were SLNB[-], and 4,012 were cN[+] and pN[+]. The proportion of patients with any metastatic disease (brain metastases) were as follows: SLNB[+]: 1.4% (0.3%); SLNB[-] 0.3% ( 4, ulceration, and lymphovascular invasion were associated with greater risk of metastatic disease. A supervised decision tree for SLNB[+] and SLNB[-] patients found the only groups with >2% risk of metastases were T4 tumors or T2/T3 tumors with ulceration and LVI. Most groups had a negligible risk (<0.1%) of brain metastases. This is the first large analysis to guide the use of imaging for cutaneous melanoma. Among clinically node negative patients, metastatic disease is uncommon and brain metastases are exceedingly rare. Further investigation could promote a tailored approach to metastatic workups guided by individual risk factors.
28 September 2026 in Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery
Background: Circulating tumor DNA is a promising biomarker for molecular residual disease and recurrence surveillance in biliary tract cancers. We evaluated the association between postoperative tumor-informed ctDNA and recurrence-free survival (RFS) and assessed the performance of initial and longitudinal ctDNA surveillance. Methods: We performed a single-institution retrospective cohort study of 51 patients with resected non-metastatic biliary tract cancers who underwent postoperative ctDNA testing. Kaplan–Meier, log-rank, univariable Cox regression, and limited multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate associations between ctDNA status and RFS. A 3-month landmark sensitivity analysis was performed to address time-related bias. Results: Twenty-five patients (49.0%) developed recurrence. Recurrence occurred in 18 of 20 patients (90.0%) with postoperative ctDNA positivity compared with 7 of 31 patients (22.6%) without ctDNA positivity. Median RFS was 10.8 versus 47.4 months, respectively. Postoperative ctDNA positivity was associated with shorter RFS (HR, 7.85; 95% CI, 3.03–20.29; p < 0.001). In a pre-specified multivariable Cox model adjusting for stage III/IV disease and CA 19-9 > 37 U/mL, postoperative ctDNA positivity remained associated with shorter RFS (adjusted HR, 5.09; 95% CI, 1.82–14.26; p = 0.002). Longitudinal ctDNA surveillance demonstrated a sensitivity of 72.0%, specificity of 92.3%, PPV of 90.0%, and NPV of 77.4% for recurrence. Median lead time to recurrence was 69.5 days. In a 3-month landmark cohort of 37 evaluable patients, postoperative ctDNA positivity was associated with shorter subsequent RFS after exploratory adjustment for stage and CA 19-9 (adjusted HR, 6.45; 95% CI, 1.47–28.34; p = 0.014). Conclusions: Postoperative ctDNA positivity was associated with recurrence and shorter RFS. Longitudinal ctDNA surveillance improved recurrence detection and frequently preceded clinically documented recurrence.