Background: A correlate of protection (CoP) is an immunological marker associated with protection against infection. Despite an urgent need, a CoP for SARS-CoV-2 is currently undefined. Objectives: Our objective was to review the evidence for a humoral correlate of protection for SARS-CoV-2, including variants of concern. Methods: We searched OVID MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, Biosis Previews and Scopus to January 4, 2022 and pre-prints (using NIH iSearch COVID-19 portfolio) to December 31, 2021, for studies describing SARS-CoV-2 re-infection or breakthrough infection with associated antibody measures. Two reviewers independently extracted study data and performed quality assessment. Results: Twenty-five studies were included in our systematic review. Two studies examined the correlation of antibody levels to VE, and reported values from 48.5% to 94.2%. Similarly, several studies found an inverse relationship between antibody levels and infection incidence, risk, or viral load, suggesting that both humoral immunity and other immune components contribute to protection. However, individual level data suggest infection can still occur in the presence of high levels of antibodies. Two studies estimated a quantitative CoP: for Ancestral SARS-CoV-2, these included 154 (95% confidence interval (CI) 42, 559) anti-S binding antibody units/mL (BAU/mL), and 28.6% (95% CI 19.2, 29.2%) of the mean convalescent antibody level following infection. One study reported a CoP for the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant of concern of 171 (95% CI 57, 519) BAU/mL. No studies have yet reported an Omicron-specific CoP. Conclusions: Our review suggests that a SARS-CoV-2 CoP is likely relative, where higher antibody levels decrease the risk of infection, but do not eliminate it completely. More work is urgently needed in this area to establish a SARS-CoV-2 CoP and guide policy as the pandemic continues.

We conducted a systematic review to describe the frequency of mild, atypical, and asymptomatic infection among household contacts of pertussis cases and to explore the published literature for evidence of asymptomatic transmission. We included studies that obtained and tested laboratory specimens from household contacts regardless of symptom presentation and reported the proportion of cases with typical, mild/atypical, or asymptomatic infection. After screening 6789 articles, we included 26 studies. Fourteen studies reported household contacts with mild/atypical pertussis. These comprised up to 46.2% of all contacts tested. Twenty-four studies reported asymptomatic contacts with laboratory-confirmed pertussis, comprising up to 55.6% of those tested. Seven studies presented evidence consistent with asymptomatic pertussis transmission between household contacts. Our results demonstrate a high prevalence of subclinical infection in household contacts of pertussis cases, which may play a substantial role in the ongoing transmission of disease. Our review reveals a gap in our understanding of pertussis transmission.

Background: We conducted a systematic review to assess whether measles humoral immunity wanes in previously infected or vaccinated populations in measles elimination settings. Methods: After screening 16 822 citations, we identified 9 articles from populations exposed to wild-type measles and 16 articles from vaccinated populations that met our inclusion criteria. Results: Using linear regression, we found that geometric mean titers (GMTs) decreased significantly in individuals who received 2 doses of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) by 121.8 mIU/mL (95% confidence interval [CI], −212.4 to −31.1) per year since vaccination over 1 to 5 years, 53.7 mIU/mL (95% CI, −95.3 to −12.2) 5 to 10 years, 33.2 mIU/mL (95% CI, −62.6 to −3.9), 10 to 15 years, and 24.1 mIU/mL (95% CI, −51.5 to 3.3) 15 to 20 years since vaccination. Decreases in GMT over time were not significant after 1 dose of MCV or after infection. Decreases in the proportion of seropositive individuals over time were not significant after 1 or 2 doses of MCV or after infection. Conclusions: Measles antibody waning in vaccinated populations should be considered in planning for measles elimination.

We analyzed 21 676 residual specimens from Ontario, Canada collected March–August 2020 to investigate the effect of antibody decline on SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence estimates. Testing specimens orthogonally using Abbott (anti-nucleocapsid) and Ortho (anti-spike) assays, seroprevalence estimates were 0.4%–1.4%, despite ongoing disease activity. The geometric mean concentration (GMC) of antibody-positive specimens decreased over time (P = .015), and GMC of antibody-negative specimens increased over time (P = .0018). Association between the 2 tests decreased each month (P < .001), suggesting anti-nucleocapsid antibody decline. Lowering Abbott antibody index cutoff from 1.4 to 0.7 resulted in a 16% increase in positive specimens.

The number needed to vaccinate (NNV) is a measure that has been widely used in the scientific literature to draw conclusions about the usefulness and cost-effectiveness of various immunization programmes. The main objective of this review is to examine how and why the NNV has been used and reported in the published literature. Electronic databases were searched and records were screened against the eligibility criteria by two independent authors. We included papers that reported and interpreted NNV. We identified 27 studies, the designs including observational studies, economic analyses, systematic reviews, and commentaries. The NNV has been used in the literature to describe three main themes: potential benefits of vaccination programmes, cost-effectiveness, and economic analyses, and modelling studies to compare different vaccination strategies. NNV has been used in a wide variety of ways in the literature, yet there are no defined thresholds for what is a favourable NNV. Furthermore, the generalizability of the NNV is usually limited. Further work is required to determine the most appropriate use of this measure.