The Chinese water pine Glyptostrobus pensilis is the sole surviving species of the genus Glyptostrobus. It is endemic to southern China, central Vietnam, and eastern Laos, and today it is nearly extinct in the wild. Forest community characteristics and population structure of G. pensilis in China have remained unknown up to now. We investigated six swamp forest stands and analyzed their forest community characteristics (i.e. vertical stratification, species composition, and diversity) and population structure, including the frequency distribution of DBH (diameter at breast height) and age-classes as found in Fujian Province, southeastern China. The vertical stratifications of all the forest stands were rather simple. The remaining wild specimens ranged from roughly 15 to some 357 years for an average of ca. 85 years, with only a few individuals less than 20 years old. Compared with the stands and populations of G. pensilis in Vietnam, the taxonomic compositions of the stands in the two regions were different, except for the dominant species-G. pensilis. The Shannon-Wiener index showed the overstory of each stand had much lower diversity (0.26 on average) in Fujian Province than that (1.97 on average) in Vietnam, whereas the diversity indices were about the same (around 2.41) for the understories in the two regions. Furthermore, we discovered 18 G. pensilis seedlings at the study sites in Fujian Province. This discovery demonstrates that G. pensilis regeneration is extremely poor and its populations are declining, although these populations are relatively healthier than those in Vietnam.

The distribution of forest vegetation and forest carbon sequestration potential are significantly influenced by climate change. In this study, a map of the current distribution of vegetation in Yunnan Province was compiled based on data from remote sensing imagery from the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) from 2008 to 2011. A classification and regression tree (CART) model was used to predict the potential distribution of the main forest vegetation types in Yunnan Province and estimate the changes in carbon storage and carbon sequestration potential (CSP) in response to increasing temperature. The results show that the current total forest area in Yunnan Province is 1.86 × 10⁷ ha and that forest covers 48.63% of the area. As the temperature increases, the area of forest distribution first increases and then decreases, and it decreases by 11% when the temperature increases from 1.5 to 2 °C. The mean carbon density of the seven types of forest vegetation in Yunnan Province is 84.69 Mg/ha. The total carbon storage of the current forest vegetation in Yunnan Province is 871.14 TgC, and the CSP is 1100.61 TgC. The largest CSP (1114.82 TgC) occurs when the temperature increases by 0.5 °C. Incremental warming of 2 °C will sharply decrease the forest CSP, especially in those regions with mature coniferous forest vegetation. Semi-humid evergreen broad-leaved forests were highly sensitive to temperature changes, and the CSP of these forests will decrease with increasing temperature. Warm-hot coniferous forests have the greatest CSP in all simulation scenarios except the scenario of a 2 °C temperature increase. These results indicate that temperature increases can influence the CSP in Yunnan Province, and the largest impact emerged in the 2 °C increase scenario.

Ongoing climate changes reportedly affect the potential distribution and carbon sequestration potential (CSP) of forest vegetation. The combined effects of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation on these features of forest vegetation are poorly understood. In this study, classification and regression tree (CART) models were used to predict the potential distribution and estimate the CSP of forest vegetation in Yunnan Province, Southwest China, under different simulation scenarios. The minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMW) was the main factor limiting the suitable habitat of all forest vegetation types except for warm–temperate coniferous (WTC) forests. When the temperature increased by 1 °C and the precipitation decreased by 20%, the potential distribution area of the 7 forest vegetation types decreased by 12.41% overall. The potential distribution of WTC forests was the least sensitive to temperature increases and precipitation decreases. The CSP of vegetation was higher (1187.69 TgC) under the constant temperature and 10% precipitation decrease scenario than the CSP of vegetation under the 2 °C temperature increase and constant precipitation scenario (647.24 TgC). Specifically, the highest CSP (1337.88 TgC) was observed under the 1 °C temperature increase and 10% precipitation decrease scenario, and the lowest (617.91 TgC) occurred under the constant temperature and 20% precipitation decrease scenario. In summary, the forest vegetation in Yunnan Province has a high CSP under climate change, and the combined effect of increased temperature and decreased precipitation can increase the CSP of forest vegetation in Yunnan Province. This finding is important for improving scientific decision making and policy planning.