Previous research has primarily focused on soil erosion issues in arid and semi-arid regions, with a limited understanding of soil erosion mechanisms in tropical areas. Additionally, there is a lack of a holistic perspective to determine the spatial attribution of soil erosion. The conversion of tropical rainforests into economically driven plantations, like rubber and pulpwood, has resulted in distinct soil erosion characteristics in specific regions. To enhance our knowledge of soil erosion patterns and mechanisms in tropical regions, it is necessary to examine soil erosion in the three major watersheds of Hainan Island from 1991 to 2021, which encompass significant geographical features such as tropical island water sources and tropical rainforest national parks. The study employed the China Soil Loss Equation (CSLE) model, slope trend analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, land-use transfer matrix, and spatial attribution analysis to examine soil erosion under different scenarios. The research results indicate that scenarios driven by the combination of natural and human factors have the greatest impact on soil erosion changes in the entire study area. Co-driven increases affected 53.56% of the area, while co-driven decreases affected 21.74%. The 31-year soil erosion showed an overall increasing trend. Human factors were identified as the primary drivers of increased soil erosion in the Nandu River basin, while a combination of climate and anthropogenic factors influenced the decrease in soil erosion. In the Changhua River basin, climate and human activities contributed to the soil erosion increase, while human activities primarily caused the decrease in soil erosion. In the Wanquan River basin, climate intensified soil erosion, whereas human activities mitigated it. This study underscores the significant combined impact of human activities and natural factors on soil erosion in tropical regions. It emphasizes the importance of considering human-induced factors when implementing soil erosion control measures in tropical regions.

The damage caused by soil erosion to global ecosystems is undeniable. However, traditional research methods often do not consider the unique soil characteristics specific to China and rainfall intensity variability in different periods on vegetation, and relatively few research efforts have addressed the attribution analysis of soil erosion changes in tropical islands. Therefore, this study applied a modification of the Chinese Soil Loss Equation (CSLE) to evaluate the monthly mean soil erosion modulus in Hainan Island over the past two decades, aiming to assess the potential soil erosion risk. The model demonstrated a relatively high R², with validation results for the three basins yielding R² values of 0.77, 0.64, and 0.78, respectively. The results indicated that the annual average soil erosion modulus was 92.76 t·hm⁻²·year⁻¹, and the monthly average soil erosion modulus was 7.73 t·hm⁻²·month⁻¹. The key months for soil erosion were May to October, which coincided with the rainy season, having an average erosion modulus of 8.11, 9.41, 14.49, 17.05, 18.33, and 15.36 t·hm⁻²·month⁻¹, respectively. September marked the most critical period for soil erosion. High-erosion-risk zones are predominantly distributed in the central and eastern sections of the study area, gradually extending into the southwest. The monthly average soil erosion modulus increased with rising elevation and slope. The monthly variation trend in rainfall erosivity factor had a greater impact on soil water erosion than vegetation cover and biological practice factor. The identification of dynamic factors is crucial in areas prone to soil erosion, as it provides a scientific underpinning for monitoring soil erosion and implementing comprehensive water erosion management in these regions.

Climate variability and human activities are major influences on the hydrological cycle. However, the driving characteristics of hydrological cycle changes and the potential impact on runoff in areas where natural forests have been converted to rubber plantations on a long-term scale remain unclear. Based on this, the Mann–Kendall (MK) and Pettitt breakpoint tests and the Double Mass Curve method were employed to identify the variation characteristics and breakpoints of precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (ET₀), and runoff depth (R) in the Wanquan River Basin (WQRB) during the 1970–2016 period. The changes in runoff attributed to P, ET₀, and the catchment characteristics parameter (n) were quantified using the elastic coefficient method based on the Budyko hypothesis. The results revealed that the P and R in the WQRB exhibited statistically insignificant decreasing trends, while ET₀ displayed a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05). The breakpoint of runoff changes in the Jiabao and the Jiaji stations occurred in 1991 and 1983, respectively. The runoff changes show a negative correlation with both the n and ET₀, while exhibiting a positive correlation with P. Moreover, it is observed that P and ET₀ display higher sensitivity towards runoff changes compared to n. The decomposition analysis reveals that in the Dingan River Basin (DARB), human activities account for 53.54% of the runoff changes, while climate variability contributes to 46.46%. In the Main Wanquan River Basin (MWQRB), human activities contribute to 46.11%, whereas climate variability accounts for 53.89%. The research findings suggest that runoff is directly reduced by climate variability (due to decreased P and increased ET₀), while human activities indirectly contribute to changes in runoff through n, exacerbating its effects. Rubber forest stands as the prevailing artificial vegetation community within the WQRB. The transformation of natural forests into rubber plantations constitutes the primary catalyst for the alteration of n in the WQRB. The research findings provide important reference for quantifying the driving force of hydrological changes caused by deforestation, which is of great significance for sustainable management of forests and water resources.