Pulsar timing arrays aim to detect nanohertz-frequency gravitational waves (GWs). A background of GWs modulates pulsar arrival times and manifests as a stochastic process, common to all pulsars, with a signature spatial correlation. Here we describe a search for an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) using observations of 30 millisecond pulsars from the third data release of the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array (PPTA), which spans 18 yr. Using current Bayesian inference techniques we recover and characterize a common-spectrum noise process. Represented as a strain spectrum h c = A ( f / 1 yr − 1 ) α , we measure A = 3.1 − 0.9 + 1.3 × 10 − 15 and α = −0.45 ± 0.20, respectively (median and 68% credible interval). For a spectral index of α = −2/3, corresponding to an isotropic background of GWs radiated by inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries, we recover an amplitude of A = 2.04 − 0.22 + 0.25 × 10 − 15 . However, we demonstrate that the apparent signal strength is time-dependent, as the first half of our data set can be used to place an upper limit on A that is in tension with the inferred common-spectrum amplitude using the complete data set. We search for spatial correlations in the observations by hierarchically analyzing individual pulsar pairs, which also allows for significance validation through randomizing pulsar positions on the sky. For a process with α = −2/3, we measure spatial correlations consistent with a GWB, with an estimated false-alarm probability of p ≲ 0.02 (approx. 2σ). The long timing baselines of the PPTA and the access to southern pulsars will continue to play an important role in the International Pulsar Timing Array.

We present the third data release from the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array (PPTA) project. The release contains observations of 32 pulsars obtained using the 64-m Parkes ‘Murriyang’ radio telescope. The data span is up to 18 yr with a typical cadence of 3 weeks. This data release is formed by combining an updated version of our second data release with $\sim$ 3 yr of more recent data primarily obtained using an ultra-wide-bandwidth receiver system that operates between 704 and 4032 MHz. We provide calibrated pulse profiles, flux density dynamic spectra, pulse times of arrival, and initial pulsar timing models. We describe methods for processing such wide-bandwidth observations and compare this data release with our previous release.

The noise in millisecond pulsar (MSP) timing data can include contributions from observing instruments, the interstellar medium, the solar wind, solar system ephemeris errors, and the pulsars themselves. The noise environment must be accurately characterized in order to form the null hypothesis from which signal models can be compared, including the signature induced by nanohertz-frequency gravitational waves (GWs). Here we describe the noise models developed for each of the MSPs in the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array (PPTA) third data release, which have been used as the basis of a search for the isotropic stochastic GW background. We model pulsar spin noise, dispersion measure variations, scattering variations, events in the pulsar magnetospheres, solar wind variability, and instrumental effects. We also search for new timing model parameters and detected Shapiro delays in PSR J0614−3329 and PSR J1902−5105. The noise and timing models are validated by testing the normalized and whitened timing residuals for Gaussianity and residual correlations with time. We demonstrate that the choice of noise models significantly affects the inferred properties of a common-spectrum process. Using our detailed models, the recovered common-spectrum noise in the PPTA is consistent with a power law with a spectral index of γ = 13/3, the value predicted for a stochastic GW background from a population of supermassive black hole binaries driven solely by GW emission.

The Australian, Chinese, European, Indian, and North American pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations recently reported, at varying levels, evidence for the presence of a nanohertz gravitational-wave background (GWB). Given that each PTA made different choices in modeling their data, we perform a comparison of the GWB and individual pulsar noise parameters across the results reported from the PTAs that constitute the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA). We show that despite making different modeling choices, there is no significant difference in the GWB parameters that are measured by the different PTAs, agreeing within 1σ. The pulsar noise parameters are also consistent between different PTAs for the majority of the pulsars included in these analyses. We bridge the differences in modeling choices by adopting a standardized noise model for all pulsars and PTAs, finding that under this model there is a reduction in the tension in the pulsar noise parameters. As part of this reanalysis, we “extended” each PTA’s data set by adding extra pulsars that were not timed by that PTA. Under these extensions, we find better constraints on the GWB amplitude and a higher signal-to-noise ratio for the Hellings–Downs correlations. These extensions serve as a prelude to the benefits offered by a full combination of data across all pulsars in the IPTA, i.e., the IPTA’s Data Release 3, which will involve not just adding in additional pulsars but also including data from all three PTAs where any given pulsar is timed by more than a single PTA.

The recent observation of a common red-noise process in pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) suggests that the detection of nanohertz gravitational waves might be around the corner. However, in order to confidently attribute this red process to gravitational waves, one must observe the Hellings–Downs curve—the telltale angular correlation function associated with a gravitational-wave background. This effort is complicated by the complex modeling of pulsar noise. Without proper care, misspecified noise models can lead to false-positive detections. Background estimation using “quasi-resampling” methods such as sky scrambles and phase shifts, which use the data to characterize the noise, are therefore important tools for assessing significance. We investigate the ability of current PTA experiments to estimate their background with “quasi-independent” scrambles—characterized by a statistical “match” below the fiducial value: ∣M∣ < 0.1. We show that sky scrambling is affected by “saturation” after  ( 10 ) quasi-independent realizations; subsequent scrambles are no longer quasi-independent. We show that phase scrambling saturates after  ( 100 ) quasi-independent realizations. With so few independent scrambles, it is difficult to make reliable statements about the ≳5σ tail of the null distribution of the detection statistic. We sketch out various methods by which one may increase the number of independent scrambles. We also consider an alternative approach, wherein one reframes the background estimation problem so that the significance is calculated using statistically dependent scrambles. The resulting p-value is in principle well defined, but may be susceptible to failure if assumptions about the data are incorrect.

A number of pulsar timing arrays have recently reported preliminary evidence for the existence of a nanohertz frequency gravitational wave background. These analyses rely on noise analyses, which are inherently complex due to the many astrophysical and instrumental factors. We investigate whether realistic systematic errors, stemming from misspecified noise models that fail to capture salient features of the pulsar timing noise, could bias the evidence for gravitational waves. We consider two plausible forms of misspecification: small instrumental pulse arrival time offsets and radio-frequency-dependent time-correlated noise. Using simulated data, we calculate the distribution of the commonly used optimal statistic with no signal present and using plausibly misspecified noise models. By comparing the optimal statistic distribution with the distribution created using “quasi-resampling” techniques (such as sky scrambles and phase shifts), we endeavour to determine the extent to which plausible misspecification might lead to a false positive. The results are reassuring: we find that quasi-resampling techniques tend to underestimate the significance of pure-noise data sets. We conclude that recent reported evidence for a nanohertz gravitational wave background is likely robust to the most obvious sources of systematic errors; if anything, the significance of the signal is potentially underestimated.