Carlo De Michele

Prof. Carlo De Michele

Department Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy
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Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

29Years (1998-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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18 December 2004 in Water Resources Research
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Journal Article
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GSG. Salvadori
G. Salvadori
Carlo De MicheleCarlo De Michele
Carlo De Michele

27 January 2003 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
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Journal Article
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Carlo De MicheleCarlo De Michele
Carlo De Michele
GSG. Salvadori
G. Salvadori

1 July 2007 in Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
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Journal Article
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GSG. Salvadori
G. Salvadori
Carlo De MicheleCarlo De Michele
Carlo De Michele
The use of copulas in hydrology is quite recent, and many important results still are to be discovered and/or derived. In this work we present some recent advances in hydrological modeling that exploit copulas. These include: (1) the calculation of conditional probabilities and their use in bivariate simulation; (2) the calculation of the level curves of joint distributions; (3) the calculation of the return periods of bivariate events, both in the conditional and unconditional cases; (4) the definition and calculation of the secondary return period; (5) a trivariate model for the temporal structure of the sequence of storms; (6) the statistical calculation of the storm depth; and (7) the calculation of the convolution variance. Several applications to hydrological data are shown. The models presented here may have important implications in many areas of water resources and hydrologic systems.

4 November 2011 in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
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Salvadori Gianfausto Salvadori Gianfausto 
Salvadori Gianfausto 
Carlo De MicheleCarlo De Michele
Carlo De Michele
FDFabrizio Durante
Fabrizio Durante
Calculating return periods and design quantiles in a multivariate environment is a difficult problem: this paper tries to make the issue clear. First, we outline a possible way to introduce a consistent theoretical framework for the calculation of the return period in a multi-dimensional environment, based on Copulas and the Kendall's measure. Secondly, we introduce several approaches for the identification of suitable design events: these latter quantities are of utmost importance in practical applications, but their calculation is yet limited, due to the lack of an adequate theoretical environment where to embed the problem. Throughout the paper, a case study involving the behavior of a dam is used to illustrate the new concepts outlined in this work.

10 November 2021 in Earth's Future
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EBEmanuele Bevacqua
Emanuele Bevacqua
Carlo De MicheleCarlo De Michele
Carlo De Michele
CMColin Manning
Colin Manning
ACAnaïs Couasnon
Anaïs Couasnon
ARAndreia F S Ribeiro
Andreia F S Ribeiro
JZJakob Zscheischler
Jakob Zscheischler
Compound weather and climate events are combinations of climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound events often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge of the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods and climate model outputs. Recently, to aid the development of research on compound events, four compound event types were introduced, namely (a) preconditioned, (b) multivariate, (c) temporally compounding, and (d) spatially compounding events. However, guidelines on how to study these types of events are still lacking. Here, we consider four case studies, each associated with a specific event type and a research question, to illustrate how the key elements of compound events (e.g., analytical tools and relevant physical effects) can be identified. These case studies show that (a) impacts on crops from hot and dry summers can be exacerbated by preconditioning effects of dry and bright springs. (b) Assessing compound coastal flooding in Perth (Australia) requires considering the dynamics of a non‐stationary multivariate process. For instance, future mean sea‐level rise will lead to the emergence of concurrent coastal and fluvial extremes, enhancing compound flooding risk. (c) In Portugal, deep‐landslides are often caused by temporal clusters of moderate precipitation events. Finally, (d) crop yield failures in France and Germany are strongly correlated, threatening European food security through spatially compounding effects. These analyses allow for identifying general recommendations for studying compound events. Overall, our insights can serve as a blueprint for compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors.

1 January 2005 in Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
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Journal Article
Closed access
Carlo De MicheleCarlo De Michele
Carlo De Michele
GSG. Salvadori
G. Salvadori
MCM. Canossi
M. Canossi
APA. Petaccia
A. Petaccia
Renzo RossoRenzo Rosso
Renzo Rosso
The problem of selecting the appropriate design flood is a constant concern to dam engineering and, in general, in the hydrological practice. Overtopping represents more than 40% of dam failures in the world. The determination of the design flood is based in some cases on the T -year quantile of flood peak, and in other cases considering also the T -year quantile of flood volume. However, flood peak and flood volume have a positive (strong or weak) dependence. To model properly this aspect a bivariate probability distribution is considered using the concept of 2-Copulas, and a bivariate extreme value distribution with generalized extreme value marginals is proposed. The peak–volume pair can then be transformed into the correspondent flood hydrograph, representing the river basin response, through a simple linear model. The hydrological safety of dams is considered checking adequacy of dam spillway. The reservoir behavior is tested using a long synthetic series of flood hydrographs. An application to an ex...