Change in extreme events in climate projections is a major concern. If the frequency of dry events is expected to increase in a warmer climate (thus, the overall number of wet days will decrease), heavy and extreme precipitation are also expected to increase because of a shift of the precipitation spectrum. However, the forecasts exhibit numerous uncertainties. This study focuses on the Asian region, separated into the following three subregions: the East Asian region, the Indian region, and western North Pacific region, where the summer monsoon can bring heavy rainfall. Particularly emphasized herein is the reliability of the projection, using data from a large ensemble of 30 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The scattering of the ensemble enables obtaining an optimal estimate of the uncertainties, and it is used to compute the correlation between projected changes of extreme events and circulation changes. The results show clear spatial and temporal variations in the confidence of changes, with results being more reliable during the wet season (i.e., the summer monsoon). The ensemble predicts changes in atmospheric circulation with favorable confidence, especially in the low-level moisture flux convergence (MFC). However, the correlation between this mean change and the modification of extreme events is nonsignificant. Also analyzed herein are the correlation and change of MFC exclusively during these events. The horizontal MFC exerts a nonnegligible influence on the change in the intensity of extremes. However, it is mostly the change in vertical circulation and moisture advection that is correlated with the change in frequency and intensity of extreme events.

The East Asian summer monsoon is unique among summer monsoon systems in its complex seasonality, exhibiting distinct intraseasonal stages. Previous studies have alluded to the downstream influence of the westerlies flowing around the Tibetan Plateau as key to its existence. We explore this hypothesis using an atmospheric general circulation model that simulates the intraseasonal stages with fidelity. Without a Tibetan Plateau, East Asia exhibits only one primary convective stage typical of other monsoons. As the plateau is introduced, the distinct rainfall stages—spring, pre-mei-yu, mei-yu, and midsummer—emerge, and rainfall becomes more intense overall. This emergence coincides with a pronounced modulation of the westerlies around the plateau and extratropical northerlies penetrating northeastern China. The northerlies meridionally constrain the moist southerly flow originating from the tropics, leading to a band of lower-tropospheric convergence and humidity front that produces the rainband. The northward migration of the westerlies away from the northern edge of the plateau leads to a weakening of the extratropical northerlies, which, coupled with stronger monsoonal southerlies, leads to the northward migration of the rainband. When the peak westerlies migrate north of the plateau during the midsummer stage, the extratropical northerlies disappear, leaving only the monsoon low-level circulation that penetrates northeastern China; the rainband disappears, leaving isolated convective rainfall over northeastern China. In short, East Asian rainfall seasonality results from the interaction of two seasonally evolving circulations—the monsoonal southerlies that strengthen and extend northward, and the midlatitude northerlies that weaken and eventually disappear—as summer progresses.

By simulations using a global climate model with and without the Arakan Mountains in the northwest of Myanmar, we demonstrated that this mesoscale meridionally elongated mountain range has a substantial effect on anchoring and enhancing precipitation in the region during the Bay of Bengal (BoB) monsoon onset in late May. In this period, the presence of the Arakan Mountains in the model significantly improves the simulation of the thermal and dynamical atmospheric structure of the monsoon, by substantially enhancing precipitation, deepening the midtropospheric trough and the southwesterly flow over the BoB and strengthening the upper tropospheric anticyclone atop the trough. These mountain-induced changes essentially improve the simulation of the late May Asian summer monsoon transition. Prior to the BoB monsoon onset, the blocking and deflecting effects of the Arakan Mountains on the low-level flow are marked, which enhance the moisture convergence and also probably influence the oceanic forcing over the BoB. As well as the mountain effect on the moisture convergence, inclusion of the Arakan Mountains apparently initiates an upstream troughing effect, which in turn enhances the synoptic and large-scale circulation during the monsoon transition. Furthermore, the presence of the Arakan Mountains induces a large-scale wavelike perturbation, which likely leads to an improvement of Meiyu/Baiu simulation. This study reveals that a narrow mountain like the Arakan Mountains likely contributes markedly to the characteristics of the Asian summer monsoon during its early seasonal march. Such effects need to be reasonably resolved in the models.

The active phase of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in Taiwan during May and June, known as Meiyu, produces substantial precipitation for water uses in all sectors of society. Following a companion study that analysed the historical increase in the Meiyu precipitation, the present study conducted model evaluation and diagnosis based on the EASM lifecycle over Taiwan. Higher and lower skill groups were identified from 17 Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, with five models in each group. Despite the difference in model performance, both groups projected a substantial increase in the Meiyu precipitation over Taiwan. In the higher skill group, weak circulation changes and reduced low‐level convergence point to a synoptically unfavourable condition for precipitation. In the lower skill group, intensified low‐level southwesterly winds associated with a deepened upper level trough enhance moisture pooling. Thus, the projected increase in Meiyu precipitation will likely occur through the combined effects of (1) the extension of a strengthened North Pacific anticyclone enhancing southwesterlies; and (2) more systematically, the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship that increases precipitation intensity in a warmer climate. The overall increase in the Meiyu precipitation projected by climate models of variable performance supports the observed tendency toward more intense rainfall in Taiwan and puts its early June 2017 extreme precipitation events into perspective.

Unrealistic topographic effects are generally incorporated in global climate simulations and may contribute significantly to model biases in the Asian monsoon region. By artificially implementing the Arakan Yoma and Annamese Cordillera—two south–north-oriented high mountain ranges on the coasts of the Indochina Peninsula—in a 1° global climate model, it is demonstrated that the proper representation of mesoscale topography over the Indochina Peninsula is crucial for realistically simulating the seasonality of the East Asian–western North Pacific (EAWNP) summer monsoon. Presence of the Arakan Yoma and Annamese Cordillera helps simulate the vertical coupling of atmospheric circulation over the mountain regions. In late May, the existence of the Arakan Yoma enhances the vertically deep southwesterly flow originating from the trough over the Bay of Bengal. The ascending southwesterly flow converges with the midlatitude jet stream downstream in the southeast of the Tibetan Plateau and transports moisture across the Indochina Peninsula to East Asia. The existence of the Annamese Cordillera helps the northward lower-tropospheric moisture transport over the South China Sea into the mei-yu–baiu system, and the leeside troughing effect of the mountains likely contributes to the enhancement of the subtropical high to the east. Moreover, the eastward propagation of wave energy from central Asia to the EAWNP suggests a dynamical connection between the midlatitude westerly perturbation and mei-yu–baiu. Including the Annamese Cordillera also strengthens a Pacific–Japan (PJ) pattern–like perturbation in late July by enhancing the cyclonic circulation (i.e., monsoon trough) in the lower-tropospheric western North Pacific. This suggests the contribution of the mountain effects to the intrinsic variability of the summer monsoon in the EAWNP.