Storm waves and rising sea levels pose significant threats to low-lying coastal areas, particularly sandy beaches, which are especially vulnerable. The research on the long-time-scale changes in sandy coasts, especially the identification of tipping points in the shoreline-retreat rate, is limited. Vung Tau beach, characterized by its low terrain and rapid tourism-driven economic growth, was selected as a typical study area to quantify the shoreline retreat throughout the 21st century under various sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, and to identify the existence of tipping points by investigating the projected annual change in shoreline retreat (m/yr). This study employs the Probabilistic Coastline Recession (PCR) model, a physics-based tool specifically designed for long-term coastline change assessments. The results indicate that shoreline retreat accelerates over time, particularly after a tipping point is reached around 2050 in the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the median retreat distance is projected to increase from 19 m in 2050 to 89 m by 2100, nearly a fourfold rise. In comparison, the retreat distances are smaller under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, but the same accelerating trend is observed beyond 2050. These findings highlight the growing risks associated with sea-level rise, especially the rapid increase in exceedance probabilities for retreat distances by the end of the century. By 2100, the probability of losing the entire beach at Vung Tau is projected to be 22% under SSP5-8.5. The approach of identifying tipping points based on the PCR model presented here can be applied to other sandy coastal regions, providing critical references for timely planning and the implementation of adaptation measures.

Accurate assessment of the cooling effect from urban green space (UGS) is largely hindered by insufficient field samples or consideration of the internal and surrounding three-dimensional (3D) structure. This study developed a transferable modeling-optimization framework that integrated a multi-temporal sampling strategy, multimodal 3D environmental reconstruction, and Bayesian-based optimization. First, the potential influencing factors of the cooling effect were quantified from three aspects of inner 2D/3D structure, surrounding building ventilation, and background meteorology through fusing field measurements, multi-spectral UAV images, and Sentinel-2 images. Then, a generalized additive mixed-effects model was used to explore cooling-related patterns of UGS, and a Bayesian network was further applied to identify potential optimized configurations. The results suggest the following: (1) The adopted multi-temporal sampling strategy enhances the stability of detected cooling signals and minimizes spatial interference among neighboring UGS patches and water bodies. (2) Temporal changes in the cooling effect are mainly driven by average air temperature and maximum wind speed, while the spatial variation by the UGS inner characteristics of area and shape index and surrounding ventilation. (3) The “win–win” situation of cooling intensity and range occurred in UGSs with larger areas, higher shape regularity, and medium ventilation. This approach is useful for model-based planning of climate-responsive green infrastructure and city-scale ventilation systems in heat-vulnerable environments.