To ensure a smooth transition towards peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality, one key strategy is to promote a low-carbon transition in the energy sector by facilitating the coordinated development of the electricity market, carbon market, and other markets. Currently, China’s national carbon market primarily focuses on the power generation industry. High-energy-consuming industries such as the steel industry not only participate in the electricity market but also play a significant role in China’s future carbon market. Despite existing research on market mechanisms, there remains a significant research gap in understanding how steel enterprises adjust their trading behaviors to optimize costs in multi-market coupling contexts. This study employs a system dynamics approach to model the trading interconnection between electricity trading (ET), carbon emission trading (CET), and tradable green certificates (TGC). Within this multi-market system, thermal power enterprises and renewable generators serve as suppliers of carbon allowances and green certificates, respectively, while steel companies must meet both carbon emission constraints and renewable energy consumption obligations. The results show that companies can reduce future market transaction costs by increasing the proportion of medium to long-term electricity contracts and the purchase ratio of green electricity. Additionally, a lower proportion of free quotas leads to increased costs in the carbon market transactions in later stages. Therefore, it is beneficial for steel companies to conduct cost analyses of their participation in multivariate market transactions in the long run and adapt to market changes in advance and formulate rational market trading strategies.

In the context of China’s transition from “dual control of energy consumption” to “dual control of carbon emissions,” understanding the synergistic mechanisms among carbon emission trading (CET), energy use rights trading (EURT), and electricity markets is critical for achieving the nation’s dual carbon goals. This study develops a system dynamics (SD) model to examine the coupled interactions within this “carbon–electricity–energy” ternary market system, focusing on thermal power enterprises as the primary analytical subject. The model reveals that the ternary market framework drives energy conservation and emission reduction through three key mechanisms: price signal transmission, dual regulatory constraints, and mutual quota recognition. These mechanisms propagate low-carbon incentives throughout the industrial chain by transmitting cost signals to end-users via electricity prices. Compared to binary market structures, the ternary framework achieves superior outcomes, it facilitates higher renewable energy consumption, maintains more stable price levels, enhances market liquidity for both carbon and energy rights, and improves resource allocation efficiency alongside environmental–economic performance. However, the simulation also exposes critical inefficiencies under the current “dual control of energy consumption” regime. The parallel operation of EURT and CET markets creates functional overlap and duplicated compliance burdens. This redundancy increases enterprise costs without commensurate environmental gains, validating the necessity of transitioning to carbon-focused dual control. Further analysis demonstrates that a mutual recognition mechanism between carbon and energy rights effectively alleviates dual compliance pressures and improves enterprise profitability. Optimal market performance emerges when the recognition ratio is appropriately calibrated. Additionally, gradually increasing the share of auctioned quotas while maintaining appropriate levels of free allowances can drive emission reductions without compromising enterprise profitability. This research provides both theoretical foundations and practical policy recommendations for building an efficient multi-market coordination mechanism, facilitating the policy transition, and advancing low-carbon transformation in China’s power sector.

Owing to the rich water resources, the Dadu River basin is an important hydroelectric resources development area in Sichuan Province over China. The climate change will have a great impact on the runoff change in the Dadu River Basin. The prediction of the future runoff in the Dadu River Basin can effectively improve the utilization rate of water resources, and provide a reference for hydropower dispatching. At first, to reduce the uncertainties from climate model, this paper used Stepwise Clustering Analysis to calibrate and validate the CORDEX regional climate model ensemble data from 1970 to 2005 and projected the climate change trend of Dadu River basin from 2035 to 2065. Then the Dadu River watershed scales of SWAT model was established, using the SWAT-CUP for calibration and verification. Finally, the corrected future climate data are used to drive the SWAT model to realize the future runoff forecast in the Dadu River Basin. The results show that under the scenario of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the variation range of rainfall is small, and the maximum and minimum temperatures show an overall increasing trend. The maximum (minimum) temperature will increase about 0.6℃ (1.0℃) under the scenarios of RCP4.5 and 0.9℃ (1.4℃) under the scenario of RCP8.5. Compared with the baseline period, the future (2035-2065) annual runoff under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios will increase by about 8.6% and 8.2%, respectively. Under the future climate change, the inter-annual runoff in the Dadu River Basin will change greatly, and the trend of runoff fluctuation is not consistent before and after 2050. Before 2050, runoff changes are small, however, after 2050, runoff changes under the two scenarios will increase by about 12%. On the one hand, this trend may be due to the impact of iceberg melting on runoff caused by temperature changes around 2050, on the other hand, it may be due to the combined effect of local plant evapotranspiration and ecological regulation.