Agricultural production faces significant uncertainty due to climate change, complicating groundwater issues in the North China Plain. This study introduces the groundwater footprint concept to alleviate groundwater pressure through an optimized crop structure amid climate change. By forecasting groundwater recharge, crop water demand, and food demand, a multi-objective optimization model based on groundwater footprint constraints is developed. This thesis analyzes the groundwater pressure from irrigation with historical and optimized crop structures. The findings indicate that under the historical crop structure, irrigation during dry years causes severe stress on the groundwater system as a whole, and extreme stress on 40.87% of the area; during normal years, it results in severe stress overall and extreme stress on 39.02% of the area. With the optimized crop structure, irrigation during dry years only mildly stresses the groundwater system, reducing groundwater consumption by 66.04%; during normal years, it causes light stress, reducing consumption by 50.79%. Optimizing agricultural production’s crop types and spatial layout aids in addressing climate change challenges and alleviating groundwater pressure in the North China Plain.

While water conservancy projects continuously enhance flood control and resource allocation capabilities, the adverse impacts on basin systems, particularly the structural disruption of surface water–groundwater continuity, have become increasingly pronounced. Therefore, establishing quantitative assessment of water system connectivity as a critical foundation for optimizing spatial water distribution, maintaining ecohydrological equilibrium, and enhancing flood–drought regulation efficacy is important. Focusing on the regulated reaches of the Panjiakou, Daheiting, and Taolinkou reservoirs in the Luan River Basin, this study established and integrated a three-dimensional assessment framework that synthesizes hydrological processes, hydraulic structural effects, and human activities as three fundamental drivers, and employed the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to develop a quantitative connectivity evaluation system. Results indicate that water conservancy projects significantly altered basin connectivity: surface water connectivity decreased by 0.40, while groundwater connectivity experienced a minor reduction (0.25) primarily through reservoir seepage. Consequently, the integrated surface–groundwater system declined by 0.39. Critically, project scale governs surface connectivity attenuation intensity, which substantially exceeds impacts on groundwater systems. The comprehensive assessment system developed in this study provides theoretical and methodological support for diagnosing river connectivity, formulating ecological restoration strategies, and protecting basin ecosystems.