Wildfires, as a key disturbance in forest ecosystems, are shaping the world's boreal landscapes. Changes in fire regimes are closely linked to a wide array of environmental factors, such as vegetation composition, climate change, and human activity. Arctic and boreal regions and, in particular, Siberian boreal forests are experiencing rising air and ground temperatures with the subsequent degradation of permafrost soils leading to shifts in tree cover and species composition. Compared to the boreal zones of North America or Europe, little is known about how such environmental changes might influence long-term fire regimes in Russia. The larch-dominated eastern Siberian deciduous boreal forests differ markedly from the composition of other boreal forests, yet data about past fire regimes remain sparse. Here, we present a high-resolution macroscopic charcoal record from lacustrine sediments of Lake Khamra (south-west Yakutia, Siberia) spanning the last ca. 2200 years, including information about charcoal particle sizes and morphotypes. Our results reveal a phase of increased charcoal accumulation between 600 and 900 CE, indicative of relatively high amounts of burnt biomass and high fire frequencies. This is followed by an almost 900-year-long period of low charcoal accumulation without significant peaks likely corresponding to cooler climate conditions. After 1750 CE fire frequencies and the relative amount of biomass burnt start to increase again, coinciding with a warming climate and increased anthropogenic land development after Russian colonization. In the 20th century, total charcoal accumulation decreases again to very low levels despite higher fire frequency, potentially reflecting a change in fire management strategies and/or a shift of the fire regime towards more frequent but smaller fires. A similar pattern for different charcoal morphotypes and comparison to a pollen and non-pollen palynomorph (NPP) record from the same sediment core indicate that broad-scale changes in vegetation composition were probably not a major driver of recorded fire regime changes. Instead, the fire regime of the last two millennia at Lake Khamra seems to be controlled mainly by a combination of short-term climate variability and anthropogenic fire ignition and suppression.

Wildfires play an essential role in the ecology of boreal forests. In eastern Siberia, fire activity has been increasing in recent years, challenging the livelihoods of local communities. Intensifying fire regimes also increase disturbance pressure on the boreal forests, which currently protect the permafrost beneath from accelerated degradation. However, long-term relationships between changes in fire regime and forest structure remain largely unknown. We assess past fire-vegetation feedbacks using sedimentary proxy records from Lake Satagay, Central Yakutia, Siberia, covering the past c. 10,800 years. Results from macroscopic and microscopic charcoal analyses indicate high amounts of burnt biomass during the Early Holocene, and that the present-day, low-severity surface fire regime has been in place since c. 4,500 years before present. A pollen-based quantitative reconstruction of vegetation cover and a terrestrial plant record based on sedimentary ancient DNA metabarcoding suggest a pronounced shift in forest structure toward the Late Holocene. Whereas the Early Holocene was characterized by postglacial open larch-birch woodlands, forest structure changed toward the modern, mixed larch-dominated closed-canopy forest during the Mid-Holocene. We propose a potential relationship between open woodlands and high amounts of burnt biomass, as well as a mediating effect of dense larch forest on the climate-driven intensification of fire regimes. Considering the anticipated increase in forest disturbances (droughts, insect invasions, and wildfires), higher tree mortality may force the modern state of the forest to shift toward an open woodland state comparable to the Early Holocene. Such a shift in forest structure may result in a positive feedback on currently intensifying wildfires. These new long-term data improve our understanding of millennial-scale fire regime changes and their relationships to changes of vegetation in Central Yakutia, where the local population is already being confronted with intensifying wildfire seasons.

Background: Wildfires are recognized as an important ecological component of larch-dominated boreal forests in eastern Siberia. However, long-term fire-vegetation dynamics in this unique environment are poorly understood. Recent paleoecological research suggests that intensifying fire regimes may induce millennial-scale shifts in forest structure and composition. This may, in turn, result in positive feedback on intensifying wildfires and permafrost degradation, apart from threatening human livelihoods. Most common fire-vegetation models do not explicitly include detailed individual-based tree population dynamics, but a focus on patterns of forest structure emerging from interactions among individual trees may provide a beneficial perspective on the impacts of changing fire regimes in eastern Siberia. To simulate these impacts on forest structure at millennial timescales, we apply the individual-based, spatially explicit vegetation model LAVESI-FIRE, expanded with a new fire module. Satellite-based fire observations along with fieldwork data were used to inform the implementation of wildfire occurrence and adjust model parameters. Results: Simulations of annual forest development and wildfire activity at a study site in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) since the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 20,000 years BP) highlight the variable impacts of fire regimes on forest structure throughout time. Modeled annual fire probability and subsequent burned area in the Holocene compare well with a local reconstruction of charcoal influx in lake sediments. Wildfires can be followed by different forest regeneration pathways, depending on fire frequency and intensity and the pre-fire forest conditions. We find that medium-intensity wildfires at fire return intervals of 50 years or more benefit the dominance of fire-resisting Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr.), while stand-replacing fires tend to enable the establishment of evergreen conifers. Apart from post-fire mortality, wildfires modulate forest development mainly through competition effects and a reduction of the model’s litter layer. Conclusion: With its fine-scale population dynamics, LAVESI-FIRE can serve as a highly localized, spatially explicit tool to understand the long-term impacts of boreal wildfires on forest structure and to better constrain interpretations of paleoecological reconstructions of fire activity.

In Central Yakutia (Siberia) livelihoods of local communities depend on alaas (thermokarst depression) landscapes and the lakes within. Development and dynamics of these alaas lakes are closely connected to climate change, permafrost thawing, catchment conditions, and land use. To reconstruct lake development throughout the Holocene we analyze sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) and biogeochemistry from a sediment core from Lake Satagay, spanning the last c. 10,800 calibrated years before present (cal yrs BP). SedaDNA of diatoms and macrophytes and microfossil diatom analysis reveal lake formation earlier than 10,700 cal yrs BP. The sedaDNA approach detected 42 amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) of diatom taxa, one ASV of Eustigmatophyceae (Nannochloropsis), and 12 ASVs of macrophytes. We relate diatom and macrophyte community changes to climate-driven shifts in water level and mineral and organic input, which result in variable water conductivity, in-lake productivity, and sediment deposition. We detect a higher lake level and water conductivity in the Early Holocene (c. 10,700–7000 cal yrs BP) compared to other periods, supported by the dominance of Stephanodiscus sp. and Stuckenia pectinata. Further climate warming towards the Mid-Holocene (7000–4700 cal yrs BP) led to a shallowing of Lake Satagay, an increase of the submerged macrophyte Ceratophyllum, and a decline of planktonic diatoms. In the Late Holocene (c. 4700 cal yrs BP–present) stable shallow water conditions are confirmed by small fragilarioid and staurosiroid diatoms dominating the lake. Lake Satagay has not yet reached the final stage of alaas development, but satellite imagery shows an intensification of anthropogenic land use, which in combination with future warming will likely result in a rapid desiccation of the lake.

Severe wildfire seasons in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) raise questions regarding long-term fire dynamics and their drivers. However, data on long-term fire history remains scarce across eastern Siberia. Here we present a composite of reconstructed wildfire dynamics in Yakutia throughout the Holocene, based on eight newly contributed records of macroscopic charcoal in lake sediments in combination with published data. Increased biomass burning occurred in the Early Holocene, c. 10,000 years BP, before shifting to lower levels at c. 6000 years BP. Independent simulations of climate-driven burned area in an individual-based forest model reproduce this reconstructed Holocene trend, but the correlation on multi-centennial timescales turns negative in the Late Holocene. This mismatch suggests that climate alone cannot explain Late Holocene wildfire dynamics. We propose that a human dimension needs to be considered. By example of the settlement of the pastoralist Sakha people c. 800 years BP, we show that implementing reduced fuel availability from Indigenous land management in the forest model leads to increased multi-centennial-scale correlations. This study highlights the need for a better understanding of the poorly reported human dimension of past fire dynamics in eastern Siberia.