The relationship between baseline serum albumin level and long-term prognosis of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) remains unknown. This is a sub-analysis of the CLIONE (Clinical Outcome Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease) study. The main outcomes were: death or orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT), liver-related death, and liver-related events (hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC], decompensated cirrhosis, and gastroesophageal varices/bleeding). 1383 Japanese patients with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD were analyzed. They were divided into 3 groups based on serum albumin: high (>4.0 g/dL), intermediate (3.5–4.0 g/dL), and low (<3.5 g/dL). Unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] of the intermediate albumin group, compared with the high albumin group, were 3.6 for death or OLT, 11.2 for liver-related death, 4.6 for HCC, 8.2 for decompensated cirrhosis, and 6.2 for gastroesophageal varices (all risks were statistically significant). After adjusting confounding factors, albumin remained significantly associated with death or OLT (intermediate vs. high albumin group: HR 3.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.59–5.91, p < 0.001; low vs. high albumin group: HR 22.9, 95% CI 8.21–63.9, p < 0.001). Among biopsy-confirmed NAFLD patients, those with intermediate or low serum albumin had a significantly higher risk of death or OLT than those with high serum albumin.

Background: Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atez/Bev) and durvalumab plus tremelimumab (Dur/Tre) are standard first-line therapies for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, predictive biomarkers to guide treatment selection remain undefined. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the prognostic utility of a modified tumor marker (mTM) score, incorporating alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP), for selecting between Atez/Bev and Dur/Tre and in stratifying treatment outcomes of unresectable HCC. Methods: We conducted a multicenter retrospective study of 1,313 patients with unresectable HCC treated with either Atez/Bev (n = 1,157) or Dur/Tre (n = 156). The mTM score was defined based on baseline AFP (≥100 ng/mL) and DCP (≥100 mAU/mL), assigning one point to each elevated marker. Patients were categorized as mTM low (score 0) or mTM high (score 1–2). Survival outcomes were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models, with inverse probability of treatment weighting applied for confounder adjustment. Results: Among the mTM low patients, Atez/Bev was associated with significantly longer progression-free survival (PFS) (11.5 vs. 4.4 months, p < 0.001) and overall survival (30.6 vs. 17.0 months, p = 0.023) than Dur/Tre. In contrast, in mTM high patients, PFS was comparable between Atez/Bev and Dur/Tre (6.6 vs. 6.5 months, p = 0.873). However, in patients with DCP >400 mAU/mL, Dur/Tre was associated with improved PFS. Conclusion: The mTM score is a clinically relevant biomarker for treatment stratification in unresectable HCC. Atez/Bev may be preferable in mTM low patients, whereas Dur/Tre may provide greater benefit in those with elevated DCP levels. Prospective validation is warranted to refine the optimal cutoff values for clinical implementation.