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G.B. Andresen
Department of Engineering, Aarhus University, Inge Lehmanns Gade 10, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark

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Journal article
Published: 13 May 2021 in Energy and Climate Change
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Over the last two centuries, the growth of fossil fuel combustion is the dominant cause of the increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Timely mitigation strategies are therefore important and can be achieved through energy system transformation, but time is limited. We investigate into sector coupling as a first step towards a carbon neutral energy economy by imposing additional synergy between the European electricity and heating systems. Because future climate change is unpredictable, we follow three reconstructed concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the IPCC AR5 covering the years 2000 to 2100. Three-hourly time series of the national wind and solar capacity factors, electricity and space heat consumption, and coefficient of performance of heat pumps were generated from climate change affected weather data from an ensemble of nine climate models. By using a greenfield cost-optimisation approach, we find that net zero-emission scenarios as, e.g., by the end-century of RCP26 result in extremely electrified energy systems, which almost doubles the system costs compared to historical levels. Carbon intensive pathways as, e.g., the end-century of RCP8.5 result in fossil-fuel dominated energy systems with significant cost reductions. Independent of the climate outcome, the cost of a strongly coupled system is comparable to that of a weakly coupled system. This result states the importance of transforming energy systems towards higher electrification even if strong coupling technologies such as heat pumps and combined heat and power plants are not implemented at large scale.

ACS Style

S. Kozarcanin; G.B. Andresen. The effect of increased coupling strength between electricity and heating systems in different climate scenarios for Europe. Energy and Climate Change 2021, 2, 100039 .

AMA Style

S. Kozarcanin, G.B. Andresen. The effect of increased coupling strength between electricity and heating systems in different climate scenarios for Europe. Energy and Climate Change. 2021; 2 ():100039.

Chicago/Turabian Style

S. Kozarcanin; G.B. Andresen. 2021. "The effect of increased coupling strength between electricity and heating systems in different climate scenarios for Europe." Energy and Climate Change 2, no. : 100039.

Journal article
Published: 27 October 2020 in Applied Energy
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The world is facing major challenges related to global warming and emissions of greenhouse gases is a major causing factor. In 2017, energy industries accounted for 46% of all CO2 emissions globally, which shows a large potential for reduction. This paper proposes a novel short-term CO2 emissions forecast to enable intelligent scheduling of flexible electricity consumption to minimize the resulting CO2 emissions. Two proposed time series decomposition methods are developed for short-term forecasting of the CO2 emissions of electricity. These are in turn bench-marked against a set of state-of-the-art models. The result is a new forecasting method with a 48-hour horizon targeted the day-ahead electricity market. Forecasting benchmarks for France show that the new method has a mean absolute percentage error that is 25% lower than the best performing state-of-the-art model. Further, application of the forecast for scheduling flexible electricity consumption is studied for five European countries. Scheduling a flexible block of 4 h of electricity consumption in a 24 h interval can on average reduce the resulting CO2 emissions by 25% in France, 17% in Germany, 69% in Norway, 20% in Denmark, and just 3% in Poland when compared to consuming at random intervals during the day.

ACS Style

Neeraj Dhanraj Bokde; Bo Tranberg; Gorm Bruun Andresen. Short-term CO2 emissions forecasting based on decomposition approaches and its impact on electricity market scheduling. Applied Energy 2020, 281, 116061 .

AMA Style

Neeraj Dhanraj Bokde, Bo Tranberg, Gorm Bruun Andresen. Short-term CO2 emissions forecasting based on decomposition approaches and its impact on electricity market scheduling. Applied Energy. 2020; 281 ():116061.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Neeraj Dhanraj Bokde; Bo Tranberg; Gorm Bruun Andresen. 2020. "Short-term CO2 emissions forecasting based on decomposition approaches and its impact on electricity market scheduling." Applied Energy 281, no. : 116061.

Journal article
Published: 30 September 2020 in Energy Conversion and Management
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In the Paris agreement of 2015, it was decided to reduce the CO2 emissions of the energy sector to zero by 2050 and to restrict the global mean temperature increase to 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level. Such commitments are possible only with practically CO2-free power generation based on variable renewable technologies. Historically, the main point of criticism regarding renewable power is the variability driven by weather dependence. Power-to-X systems, which convert excess power to other stores of energy for later use, can play an important role in offsetting the variability of renewable power production. In order to do so, however, these systems have to be scheduled properly to ensure they are being powered by low-carbon technologies. In this paper, a graphical approach is introduced for scheduling power-to-X plants in the day-ahead market by minimizing carbon emissions and electricity costs. This graphical approach is simple to implement and intuitively explain to stakeholders. In a simulation study using historical prices and CO2 intensity for four different countries, it is observed that the price and CO2 intensity tends to decrease with increasing scheduling horizon. However, the effect diminishes when requiring an increasing amount of full load hours per year. Specifically, for 6000 full load hours per year, the trade-off method leads to reductions of 28% CO2 emissions and 8% costs for West Denmark, 50% and 4% for Norway, 7% and 1% for France, and −4% and −5% for Germany, when compared to the worst case for each of the two parameters. Additionally, investigating the trade-off between optimizing for price or CO2 intensity shows that it is indeed a trade-off: it is not possible to obtain the lowest price and CO2 intensity at the same time.

ACS Style

Neeraj Bokde; Bo Tranberg; Gorm Bruun Andresen. A graphical approach to carbon-efficient spot market scheduling for Power-to-X applications. Energy Conversion and Management 2020, 224, 113461 .

AMA Style

Neeraj Bokde, Bo Tranberg, Gorm Bruun Andresen. A graphical approach to carbon-efficient spot market scheduling for Power-to-X applications. Energy Conversion and Management. 2020; 224 ():113461.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Neeraj Bokde; Bo Tranberg; Gorm Bruun Andresen. 2020. "A graphical approach to carbon-efficient spot market scheduling for Power-to-X applications." Energy Conversion and Management 224, no. : 113461.

Journal article
Published: 19 May 2020 in Energies
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This paper introduces an R package ForecastTB that can be used to compare the accuracy of different forecasting methods as related to the characteristics of a time series dataset. The ForecastTB is a plug-and-play structured module, and several forecasting methods can be included with simple instructions. The proposed test-bench is not limited to the default forecasting and error metric functions, and users are able to append, remove, or choose the desired methods as per requirements. Besides, several plotting functions and statistical performance metrics are provided to visualize the comparative performance and accuracy of different forecasting methods. Furthermore, this paper presents real application examples with natural time series datasets (i.e., wind speed and solar radiation) to exhibit the features of the ForecastTB package to evaluate forecasting comparison analysis as affected by the characteristics of a dataset. Modeling results indicated the applicability and robustness of the proposed R package ForecastTB for time series forecasting.

ACS Style

Neeraj Dhanraj Bokde; Zaher Mundher Yaseen; Gorm Bruun Andersen. ForecastTB—An R Package as a Test-Bench for Time Series Forecasting—Application of Wind Speed and Solar Radiation Modeling. Energies 2020, 13, 2578 .

AMA Style

Neeraj Dhanraj Bokde, Zaher Mundher Yaseen, Gorm Bruun Andersen. ForecastTB—An R Package as a Test-Bench for Time Series Forecasting—Application of Wind Speed and Solar Radiation Modeling. Energies. 2020; 13 (10):2578.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Neeraj Dhanraj Bokde; Zaher Mundher Yaseen; Gorm Bruun Andersen. 2020. "ForecastTB—An R Package as a Test-Bench for Time Series Forecasting—Application of Wind Speed and Solar Radiation Modeling." Energies 13, no. 10: 2578.

Journal article
Published: 06 March 2020 in Energy Policy
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Residential demands for space heating and hot water account for 31% of the total European energy demand. Space heating is highly dependent on ambient conditions and susceptible to climate change. We adopt a techno-economic standpoint and assess the impact of climate change on decentralised heating demand and the cost-optimal mix of heat pump and gas boiler technologies. Temperature data with high spatial resolution from nine climate models implementing three Representative Concentration Pathways from IPCC are used to estimate climate induced changes in the European demand side for heating. The demand side is modelled by the proxy of heating-degree days. The supply side is modelled by using a screening curve approach to the economics of heat generation. We find that space heating demand decreases by about 16%, 24% and 42% in low, intermediate and extreme global warming scenarios. When considering historic weather data, we find a heterogeneous mix of technologies are cost-optimal, depending on the heating load factor (number of full-load hours per year). Increasing ambient temperatures toward the end-century improve the economic performance of heat pumps in all concentration pathways. Cost optimal technologies broadly correspond to heat markets and policies in Europe, with some exceptions.

ACS Style

S. Kozarcanin; R. Hanna; I. Staffell; R. Gross; G.B. Andresen. Impact of climate change on the cost-optimal mix of decentralised heat pump and gas boiler technologies in Europe. Energy Policy 2020, 140, 111386 .

AMA Style

S. Kozarcanin, R. Hanna, I. Staffell, R. Gross, G.B. Andresen. Impact of climate change on the cost-optimal mix of decentralised heat pump and gas boiler technologies in Europe. Energy Policy. 2020; 140 ():111386.

Chicago/Turabian Style

S. Kozarcanin; R. Hanna; I. Staffell; R. Gross; G.B. Andresen. 2020. "Impact of climate change on the cost-optimal mix of decentralised heat pump and gas boiler technologies in Europe." Energy Policy 140, no. : 111386.

Research article
Published: 16 January 2020 in Applied Energy
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To limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C, fossil-free energy systems will be required eventually. To understand how such systems can be designed, the current state-of-the-art is to apply techno-economical optimisation modelling with high spatial and temporal resolution. This approach relies on a number of climatic, technical and economic predictions that reach multiple decades into the future. In this paper, we investigate how the design of a fossil-free energy system for Europe is affected by changes in these assumptions. In particular, the synergy among renewable generators, power-to-heat converters, storage units, synthetic gas and transmission manage to deliver an affordable net-zero emissions system. We find that levelised cost of energy decreases due to heat savings, but not for global temperature increases. In both cases, heat pumps become less favourable as surplus electricity is more abundant for heating. Demand-side management through buildings’ thermal inertia could shape the heating demand, yet has modest impact on the system configuration. Cost reductions of heat pumps impact resistive heaters substantially, but not the opposite. Cheaper power-to-gas could lower the need for thermal energy storage.

ACS Style

K. Zhu; M. Victoria; Gorm Bruun Andresen; Martin Greiner. Impact of climatic, technical and economic uncertainties on the optimal design of a coupled fossil-free electricity, heating and cooling system in Europe. Applied Energy 2020, 262, 114500 .

AMA Style

K. Zhu, M. Victoria, Gorm Bruun Andresen, Martin Greiner. Impact of climatic, technical and economic uncertainties on the optimal design of a coupled fossil-free electricity, heating and cooling system in Europe. Applied Energy. 2020; 262 ():114500.

Chicago/Turabian Style

K. Zhu; M. Victoria; Gorm Bruun Andresen; Martin Greiner. 2020. "Impact of climatic, technical and economic uncertainties on the optimal design of a coupled fossil-free electricity, heating and cooling system in Europe." Applied Energy 262, no. : 114500.

Eu pvsec paper
Published: 14 November 2019 in Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications
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PyPSA‐Eur‐Sec‐30 is an open‐source, hourly resolved, networked model of the European energy system that includes one node per country as well as electricity, heating, and transport sectors. The capacity and dispatch of generation and storage technologies in every country can be cost optimized under different CO2 emissions constraints. This paper presents an overview of the most relevant results previously obtained with the model, highlighting the influence of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation on them. For 95% CO2 emissions reduction, relative to 1990 level, PV generation supplies in average 33% of the electricity demand. Southern European countries install large PV capacities together with electric batteries, while northern countries install onshore and offshore wind capacities and use hydrogen storage and reinforced interconnections to deal with wind fluctuations. The strong daily generation profile of solar PV heavily impacts the dispatch time series of backup generation and storage technologies. The optimal PV and wind capacities are investigated for variable CO2 emissions, transmission interconnection among neighbouring countries, and cost assumptions.

ACS Style

Marta Victoria; Kun Zhu; Tom Brown; Gorm B. Andresen; Martin Greiner. The role of photovoltaics in a sustainable European energy system under variable CO 2 emissions targets, transmission capacities, and costs assumptions. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications 2019, 28, 483 -492.

AMA Style

Marta Victoria, Kun Zhu, Tom Brown, Gorm B. Andresen, Martin Greiner. The role of photovoltaics in a sustainable European energy system under variable CO 2 emissions targets, transmission capacities, and costs assumptions. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications. 2019; 28 (6):483-492.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marta Victoria; Kun Zhu; Tom Brown; Gorm B. Andresen; Martin Greiner. 2019. "The role of photovoltaics in a sustainable European energy system under variable CO 2 emissions targets, transmission capacities, and costs assumptions." Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications 28, no. 6: 483-492.

Journal article
Published: 24 October 2019 in Energy Conversion and Management
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We use an open, hourly-resolved, networked model of the European energy system to investigate the storage requirements under decreasing CO2 emissions targets and several sector-coupling scenarios. For the power system, significant storage capacities only emerge for CO2 reductions higher than 80% of 1990 level in that sector. For 95% CO2 reductions, the optimal system includes electric batteries and hydrogen storage energy capacities equivalent to 1.4 and 19.4 times the average hourly electricity demand. Coupling heating and transport sectors enables deeper global CO2 reductions before the required storage capacities become significant, which highlights the importance of sector coupling strategies in the transition to low carbon energy systems. A binary selection of storage technologies is consistently found, i.e., electric batteries act as short-term storage to counterbalance solar photovoltaic generation while hydrogen storage smooths wind fluctuations. Flexibility from the electric vehicle batteries provided by coupling the transport sector avoid the need for additional stationary batteries and reduce the usage of pumped hydro storage. Coupling the heating sector brings to the system large capacities of thermal energy storage to compensate for the significant seasonal variation in heating demand.

ACS Style

Marta Victoria; Kun Zhu; Tom Brown; Gorm B. Andresen; Martin Greiner. The role of storage technologies throughout the decarbonisation of the sector-coupled European energy system. Energy Conversion and Management 2019, 201, 111977 .

AMA Style

Marta Victoria, Kun Zhu, Tom Brown, Gorm B. Andresen, Martin Greiner. The role of storage technologies throughout the decarbonisation of the sector-coupled European energy system. Energy Conversion and Management. 2019; 201 ():111977.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marta Victoria; Kun Zhu; Tom Brown; Gorm B. Andresen; Martin Greiner. 2019. "The role of storage technologies throughout the decarbonisation of the sector-coupled European energy system." Energy Conversion and Management 201, no. : 111977.

Preprint
Published: 09 July 2019
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Residential demands for space heating and hot water account for 31% of the total European energy demand. Space heating is highly dependent on ambient conditions and susceptible to climate change. We adopt a techno-economic standpoint and assess the impact of climate change on decentralized heating demand and the cost-optimal mix of heating technologies. Temperature data with high spatial resolution from nine climate models implementing three Representative Concentration Pathways from IPCC are used to estimate climate induced changes in the European demand side for heating. The demand side is modelled by the proxy of heating-degree days. The supply side is modelled by using a screening curve approach to the economics of heat generation. We find that space heating demand decreases by up to 16% and 24% in low and intermediate concentration pathways. This reduction reaches 42% in the most extreme global warming scenario. When considering historic weather data, we find a heterogeneous mix of technologies are cost-optimal, depending on the heating load factor (number of full-load hours per year). Increasing ambient temperatures toward the end-century improve the economic performance of heat pumps in all concentration pathways. Cost optimal technologies broadly correspond to heat markets and policies in Europe, with some exceptions.

ACS Style

S. Kozarcanin; R. Hanna; I. Staffell; R. Gross; G. B. Andresen. Impact of climate change on the cost optimal mix of decentralized heating in Europe. 2019, 1 .

AMA Style

S. Kozarcanin, R. Hanna, I. Staffell, R. Gross, G. B. Andresen. Impact of climate change on the cost optimal mix of decentralized heating in Europe. . 2019; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

S. Kozarcanin; R. Hanna; I. Staffell; R. Gross; G. B. Andresen. 2019. "Impact of climate change on the cost optimal mix of decentralized heating in Europe." , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 04 July 2019 in Energy and Buildings
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Space heating in buildings is becoming a key element of sector-coupled energy system research. Data availability limits efforts to model the buildings sector, because heat consumption is not directly metered in most countries. Space heating is often related to weather through the proxy of heating degree-days using a specific heating threshold temperature, but methods vary between studies. This study estimates country-specific heating threshold temperatures using widely and publicly available consumption and weather data. This allows for national climate and culture-specific human behaviour to be captured in energy systems modelling. National electricity and gas consumption data are related to degree-days through linear models, and Akaike’s Information Criteria is used to define the summer season in each country, when space heating is not required. We find that the heating threshold temperatures computed using daily, weekly and monthly aggregated consumption data are statistically indifferent. In general, threshold temperatures for gas heating centre around 15.0 ± 1.7 ∘C (daily averaged temperature), while heating by electricity averages to 13.4 ± 2.4 ∘C. We find no evidence of space heating during June, July and August, even if heating degree-days are present.

ACS Style

S. Kozarcanin; G.B. Andresen; I. Staffell. Estimating country-specific space heating threshold temperatures from national gas and electricity consumption data. Energy and Buildings 2019, 199, 368 -380.

AMA Style

S. Kozarcanin, G.B. Andresen, I. Staffell. Estimating country-specific space heating threshold temperatures from national gas and electricity consumption data. Energy and Buildings. 2019; 199 ():368-380.

Chicago/Turabian Style

S. Kozarcanin; G.B. Andresen; I. Staffell. 2019. "Estimating country-specific space heating threshold temperatures from national gas and electricity consumption data." Energy and Buildings 199, no. : 368-380.

Micro article
Published: 06 June 2019 in MethodsX
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We expand the renewable technology model palette and present a validated high resolution hydro power time series model for energy systems analysis. Among the weather-based renewables, hydroelectricity shows unique storage-like flexibility, which is particularly important given the high variability of wind and solar power. Often limited by data availability or computational performance, a high resolution, globally applicable and validated hydro power time series model has not been available. For a demonstration, we focus on 41 Chinese reservoir-based hydro stations as a demo, determine their upstream basin areas, estimate their inflow based on gridded surface runoff data and validate their daily inflow time series in terms of both flow volume and potential power generation. Furthermore, we showcase an application of these time series with hydro cascades in energy system long term investment planning. Our method's novelty lies in: •it is based on highly resolved spatial-temporal datasets;•both data and algorithms used here are globally applicable;•it includes a hydro cascade model that can be integrated into energy system simulations.

ACS Style

Hailiang Liu; Gorm Bruun Andresen; Tom Brown; Martin Greiner. A high-resolution hydro power time-series model for energy systems analysis: Validated with Chinese hydro reservoirs. MethodsX 2019, 6, 1370 -1378.

AMA Style

Hailiang Liu, Gorm Bruun Andresen, Tom Brown, Martin Greiner. A high-resolution hydro power time-series model for energy systems analysis: Validated with Chinese hydro reservoirs. MethodsX. 2019; 6 ():1370-1378.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hailiang Liu; Gorm Bruun Andresen; Tom Brown; Martin Greiner. 2019. "A high-resolution hydro power time-series model for energy systems analysis: Validated with Chinese hydro reservoirs." MethodsX 6, no. : 1370-1378.

Journal article
Published: 05 June 2019 in Energy Strategy Reviews
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Electricity accounts for 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing emissions related to electricity consumption requires accurate measurements readily available to consumers, regulators and investors. In this case study, we propose a new real-time consumption-based accounting approach based on flow tracing. This method traces power flows from producer to consumer thereby representing the underlying physics of the electricity system, in contrast to the traditional input-output models of carbon accounting. With this method we explore the hourly structure of electricity trade across Europe in 2017, and find substantial differences between production and consumption intensities. This emphasizes the importance of considering cross-border flows for increased transparency regarding carbon emission accounting of electricity.

ACS Style

Bo Tranberg; Olivier Corradi; Bruno Lajoie; Thomas Gibon; Iain Staffell; Gorm Bruun Andresen. Real-time carbon accounting method for the European electricity markets. Energy Strategy Reviews 2019, 26, 100367 .

AMA Style

Bo Tranberg, Olivier Corradi, Bruno Lajoie, Thomas Gibon, Iain Staffell, Gorm Bruun Andresen. Real-time carbon accounting method for the European electricity markets. Energy Strategy Reviews. 2019; 26 ():100367.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bo Tranberg; Olivier Corradi; Bruno Lajoie; Thomas Gibon; Iain Staffell; Gorm Bruun Andresen. 2019. "Real-time carbon accounting method for the European electricity markets." Energy Strategy Reviews 26, no. : 100367.

Research article
Published: 30 April 2019 in Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications
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Long‐term hourly time series representing the photovoltaic (PV) generation in European countries have been obtained and made available under open license. For every country, four different PV configurations, ie, rooftop, optimum tilt, tracking, and delta have been investigated. These are shown to have a strong influence on the hourly difference between electricity demand and PV generation. To obtain PV time series, irradiance from CFSR reanalysis dataset is converted into electricity generation and aggregated at country level. Prior to conversion, reanalysis irradiance is bias corrected using satellite‐based SARAH dataset and a globally applicable methodology. Moreover, a novel procedure is proposed to infer the orientation and inclination angles representative for PV panels based on the historical PV output throughout the days around summer and winter solstices. A key strength of the methodology is that it does not rely on historical PV output data. Consequently, it can be applied in places with no existing knowledge of PV performance.

ACS Style

Marta Victoria; Gorm B. Andresen. Using validated reanalysis data to investigate the impact of the PV system configurations at high penetration levels in European countries. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications 2019, 1 .

AMA Style

Marta Victoria, Gorm B. Andresen. Using validated reanalysis data to investigate the impact of the PV system configurations at high penetration levels in European countries. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications. 2019; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marta Victoria; Gorm B. Andresen. 2019. "Using validated reanalysis data to investigate the impact of the PV system configurations at high penetration levels in European countries." Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 06 March 2019 in Joule
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Summary Falling prices and significant technology developments currently drive an increased weather-dependent electricity production from renewables. In light of the changing climate, it is relevant to investigate to what extent climate change directly impacts future highly weather-dependent electricity systems. Here, we use three IPCC CO2 concentration pathways for the period 2006–2100 with six high-resolution climate experiments for the European domain. Climate data are used to calculate bias-adjusted 3-hourly time series of wind and solar generation and temperature-corrected demand time series for 30 European countries using a state-of-the-art methodology. Weather-driven electricity system analysis is then applied to compare five key metrics of highly renewable electricity systems. We find that climate change changes the need for dispatchable electricity by up to 20%. The remaining key metrics, such as the benefit of transmission and storage as well as requirements for balancing capacity and reserves, change by up to 5%.

ACS Style

Smail Kozarcanin; Hailiang Liu; Gorm Bruun Andresen. 21st Century Climate Change Impacts on Key Properties of a Large-Scale Renewable-Based Electricity System. Joule 2019, 3, 992 -1005.

AMA Style

Smail Kozarcanin, Hailiang Liu, Gorm Bruun Andresen. 21st Century Climate Change Impacts on Key Properties of a Large-Scale Renewable-Based Electricity System. Joule. 2019; 3 (4):992-1005.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Smail Kozarcanin; Hailiang Liu; Gorm Bruun Andresen. 2019. "21st Century Climate Change Impacts on Key Properties of a Large-Scale Renewable-Based Electricity System." Joule 3, no. 4: 992-1005.

Journal article
Published: 13 February 2019 in Applied Energy
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Deep decarbonization of the electricity sector can be provided by a high penetration of renewable sources such as wind, solar PV and hydro power. Flexibility from hydro and storage complements the high temporal variability of wind and solar, and transmission infrastructure helps the power balancing by moving electricity in the spatial dimension. We study cost-optimal highly-renewable Chinese power systems under ambitious CO2 emission reduction targets, by deploying a 31-node hourly-resolved techno-economic optimization model supported by a validated weather-converted 38-year-long renewable power generation and electricity demand dataset. With a new realistic reservoir hydro model, we find that if CO2 emission reduction goes beyond 70%, storage facilities such as hydro, battery and hydrogen become necessary for a moderate system cost. Numerical results show that these flexibility components can lower renewable curtailment by two thirds, allow higher solar PV share by a factor of two and contribute to covering summer cooling demand. We show that expanding unidirectional high-voltage DC lines on top of the regional inter-connections is technically sufficient and more economical than ultra-high-voltage-AC-connected “One-Net” grid. Finally, constraining transmission volume from the optimum by up to 25% does not push total costs much higher, while the significant need for battery storage remains even with abundant interconnectivity.

ACS Style

Hailiang Liu; Tom Brown; Gorm Bruun Andresen; David P. Schlachtberger; Martin Greiner. The role of hydro power, storage and transmission in the decarbonization of the Chinese power system. Applied Energy 2019, 239, 1308 -1321.

AMA Style

Hailiang Liu, Tom Brown, Gorm Bruun Andresen, David P. Schlachtberger, Martin Greiner. The role of hydro power, storage and transmission in the decarbonization of the Chinese power system. Applied Energy. 2019; 239 ():1308-1321.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hailiang Liu; Tom Brown; Gorm Bruun Andresen; David P. Schlachtberger; Martin Greiner. 2019. "The role of hydro power, storage and transmission in the decarbonization of the Chinese power system." Applied Energy 239, no. : 1308-1321.

Preprint
Published: 17 December 2018
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ACS Style

Bo Tranberg; Olivier Corradi; Bruno Lajoie; Thomas Gibon; Iain Staffell; Gorm Bruun Andresen. Real-Time Carbon Accounting Method for the European Electricity Markets. 2018, 1 .

AMA Style

Bo Tranberg, Olivier Corradi, Bruno Lajoie, Thomas Gibon, Iain Staffell, Gorm Bruun Andresen. Real-Time Carbon Accounting Method for the European Electricity Markets. . 2018; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bo Tranberg; Olivier Corradi; Bruno Lajoie; Thomas Gibon; Iain Staffell; Gorm Bruun Andresen. 2018. "Real-Time Carbon Accounting Method for the European Electricity Markets." , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 11 December 2018 in Applied Energy
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Ambitious targets for renewable energy and CO2 taxation both represent political instruments for decarbonisation of the energy system. We model a high number of coupled electricity and heating systems, where the primary sources of CO2 neutral energy are from variable renewable energy sources (VRES), i.e., wind and solar generators. The model includes hourly dispatch of all technologies for a full year for every country in Europe. In each model run, the amount of renewable energy and the level of CO2 tax are fixed exogenously, while the cost-optimal composition of energy generation, conversion, transmission and storage technologies and the corresponding CO2 emissions are calculated. We show that even for high penetrations of VRES, a significant CO2 tax of more than 100 €/tCO2 is required to limit the combined CO2 emissions from the sectors to less than 5% of 1990 levels, because curtailment of VRES, combustion of fossil fuels and inefficient conversion technologies are economically favoured despite the presence of abundant VRES. A sufficiently high CO2 tax results in the more efficient use of VRES by means of heat pumps and hot water storage, in particular. We conclude that a renewable energy target on its own is not sufficient; in addition, a CO2 tax is required to decarbonise the electricity and heating sectors and incentivise the least cost combination of flexible and efficient energy conversion and storage.

ACS Style

K. Zhu; M. Victoria; T. Brown; Gorm Bruun Andresen; Martin Greiner. Impact of CO2 prices on the design of a highly decarbonised coupled electricity and heating system in Europe. Applied Energy 2018, 236, 622 -634.

AMA Style

K. Zhu, M. Victoria, T. Brown, Gorm Bruun Andresen, Martin Greiner. Impact of CO2 prices on the design of a highly decarbonised coupled electricity and heating system in Europe. Applied Energy. 2018; 236 ():622-634.

Chicago/Turabian Style

K. Zhu; M. Victoria; T. Brown; Gorm Bruun Andresen; Martin Greiner. 2018. "Impact of CO2 prices on the design of a highly decarbonised coupled electricity and heating system in Europe." Applied Energy 236, no. : 622-634.

Journal article
Published: 01 December 2018 in Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
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ACS Style

Smail Kozarcanin; Gorm B. Andresen; Martin Greiner. Impact of Climate Change on the Backup Infrastructure of Highly Renewable Electricity Systems. Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems 2018, 6, 710 -724.

AMA Style

Smail Kozarcanin, Gorm B. Andresen, Martin Greiner. Impact of Climate Change on the Backup Infrastructure of Highly Renewable Electricity Systems. Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems. 2018; 6 (4):710-724.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Smail Kozarcanin; Gorm B. Andresen; Martin Greiner. 2018. "Impact of Climate Change on the Backup Infrastructure of Highly Renewable Electricity Systems." Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems 6, no. 4: 710-724.

Journal article
Published: 26 November 2018 in Energy
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Subcooled compressed air energy storage (SCAES) is a system cogenerating heat, cooling, and power at a high coefficient of performance. In this study, hybridization of a SCAES system with a large-scale solar-powered absorption chiller (SPAC) is proposed. The hybrid system sustainably provides cooling and power at high efficiency. The combined SPAC-SCAES system is appropriate for locations with large cooling demand and grid-connected renewable power plants. Employing this system, the renewable power plant may efficiently operate in the power market, maximizing the financial benefits by storing its surplus power and reclaiming the stored energy for balancing the demand and the production. In addition, a large amount of cold is produced, increasing the profitability of the system. This combined system is designed and simulated for a typical wind farm plus an absorption chiller of a hospital. Non-linear programming (NLP) is used to optimize the operation strategy of the SCAES and based on the given results; the components of the system are sized. The results show that by the combined system a massive amount of balancing power can be produced for the grid, a reliable integration between the cold and electricity sectors is made, and the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) decreases remarkably.

ACS Style

A. Arabkoohsar; Gorm Bruun Andresen. Design and optimization of a novel system for trigeneration. Energy 2018, 168, 247 -260.

AMA Style

A. Arabkoohsar, Gorm Bruun Andresen. Design and optimization of a novel system for trigeneration. Energy. 2018; 168 ():247-260.

Chicago/Turabian Style

A. Arabkoohsar; Gorm Bruun Andresen. 2018. "Design and optimization of a novel system for trigeneration." Energy 168, no. : 247-260.

Journal article
Published: 19 October 2018 in Energy
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Goals to reduce carbon emissions and changing electricity prices due to increasing penetrations of wind power generation affect the planning and operation of district heating production systems. Through extensive multivariate sensitivity analysis, this study estimates the robustness of future cost-optimal heat production systems under changing electricity prices, fuel cost and investment cost. Optimal production capacities are installed choosing from a range of well-established production and storage technologies including boilers, combined heat and power (CHP) units, power-to-heat technologies and heat storages. The optimal heat production system is characterized in three different electricity pricing scenarios: Historical, wind power dominated and demand dominated. Coal CHP, large heat pumps and heat storages dominate the optimal system if fossil fuels are allowed. Heat pumps and storages take over if fossil fuels are excluded. The capacity allocation between CHP and heat pumps is highly dependent on cost assumptions in the fossil fuel scenario, but the optimal capacities become much more robust if fossil fuels are not included. System cost becomes less robust in a fossil free scenario. If the electricity pricing is dominated by wind power generation or by the electricity demand, heat pumps become more favorable compared to cogeneration units. The need for heat storage more than doubles, if fossil fuels are not included, as the heating system becomes more closely coupled to the electricity system.

ACS Style

Magnus Dahl; Adam Brun; Gorm B. Andresen. Cost sensitivity of optimal sector-coupled district heating production systems. Energy 2018, 166, 624 -636.

AMA Style

Magnus Dahl, Adam Brun, Gorm B. Andresen. Cost sensitivity of optimal sector-coupled district heating production systems. Energy. 2018; 166 ():624-636.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Magnus Dahl; Adam Brun; Gorm B. Andresen. 2018. "Cost sensitivity of optimal sector-coupled district heating production systems." Energy 166, no. : 624-636.