Large-scale deployment of renewable energy sources in power systems is basically motivated by two universally recognized challenges: the need to reduce as far as possible the environmental impact of the massive increase of energy request and the dependency on fossil-fuel. Renewable energy sources are interfaced to the network by means of interfacing power converters which inherently exhibit zero inertia differently from the conventional synchronous generators. This matter jointly to the high level of time variability of the renewable resources involve dramatically frequency changes, recurrent frequency oscillations and high variability of frequency profile in general. The need of a fast estimation of time variability of the power system inertia arises at the aim of predicting critical conditions. Based on the analysis of some actual data of the Italian Transmission Network, in this paper the authors propose an autoregressive model which is able to describe the dynamic evolution of the power system inertia. More specifically, the inertia is modeled as the sum of a periodic component and a noise stochastic process distributed according a non-Gaussian model. The numerical results reported in the last part of the paper, demonstrating the efficiency and precision of estimation of inertia, allow justifying the assumptions of the above modeling.

In general, Photovoltaic (PV) plants do not include components with moving parts and, as a consequence, they are wrongly considered maintenance-free. Thus, the present work presents a maintenance, reliability and availability analysis of ten PV systems, with different inverter configurations, in the context of the intermittent RES systems, including the wind farms. The first part of the analysis consists of the evaluation of reliability using failure rates from literature. In the second part, these results are compared with data obtained from industrial maintenance reports in the years 2016 - 2018. Finally, the yearly energy losses and the availability of each PV plant are assessed.

An increasing share of renewable energy sources in power systems requires ad-hoc tools to guarantee the closeness of the system’s frequency to its rated value. At present, the use of new technologies, such as battery energy storage systems, is widely debated for its participation in the service of frequency containment. Since battery installation costs are still high, the estimation of their lifetime appears crucial in both the planning and operations of power systems’ regulation service. As the frequency response of batteries is strongly dependent on the stochastic nature of the various contingencies which can occur on power systems, the estimation of the battery lifetime is a very complex issue. In the present paper, the stochastic process which better represents the power system frequency is analyzed first; then the battery lifetime is properly estimated on the basis of realistic dynamic modeling including the state of the charge control strategy. The dynamic evolution of the state of charge is then used in combination with the celebrated rain-flow procedure with the aim of evaluating the number of charging/discharging cycles whose knowledge allows estimating the battery damage. Numerical simulations are carried out in the last part of the paper, highlighting the resulting lifetime probabilistic expectation and the impact of the state of the charge control strategy on the battery lifetime. The main findings of the present work are the proposed autoregressive model, which allows creating accurate pseudo-samples of frequency patterns and the analysis of the incidence of the control law on the battery lifetime. The numerical applications clearly show the prominent importance of this last aspect since it has an opposing impact on the economic issue by influencing the battery lifetime and technical effects by modifying the availability of the frequency regulation service.

The estimation of lithium-ion batteries degradation plays an important role for the correct operation of smart grid and electric vehicle applications. In fact, only healthy battery energy storage systems meet minimum performance in terms of supplied voltage and power. Health prognostic is mandatory to ensure safe and reliable operation of batteries, as unsuccessful operation may cause technical/economic detriments or complete failures. The battery remaining useful life (RUL) depends on several random factors and thus it should be probabilistically characterized to allow the application of decision-making processes. In this article, a hybrid methodology is developed to characterize the RUL even with small amount of data, in view of the typical scarcity of data for adequately fitting the RUL probability distributions. Several distributions are considered in the methodology and compared for such purpose: the inverse Burr (IB) distribution, and mixtures of IB with inverse Gaussian and with inverse Weibull distributions. Expectation-maximization algorithms are specifically developed for the parameter estimation of the considered mixture distributions in the proposed methodology. The IB-based distributions are applied on a RUL dataset created by Monte Carlo sampling on an electrochemical battery model fitted upon given charge/discharge cycles. Numerical experiments are reported to assess the proposal with respect to benchmark distributions.

Extreme Wind Speed modeling, i.e. the probabilistic characterization of extreme values of wind speed, is a key tool for properly understanding the destructive wind forces which may affect mechanical safety and reliability of wind power systems, but it is also extremely useful for the purpose of achieving accurate wind energy production estimations. Indeed, the need of more accurate wind estimations has been often highlighted in the literature, especially for Extreme Wind Speed, since classical adopted models, such as the Weibull distribution, behave poorly in the range of Extreme Wind Speed values. In the paper, a new model, generated by a proper mixture of the established Inverse Weibull distribution, is proposed and illustrated. The proposal is the “Inverse Log-logistic” distribution, whose adequacy in interpreting some sets of real Extreme Wind Speed data is shown after giving some hints to its identification. This study also develops a peculiar Bayesian statistical inference approach for the estimation of the above model from available data, using different prior distributions, i.e. the Lognormal, the Generalized Gamma and the Uniform distribution. Extensive numerical simulations confirm that the proposed estimation technique constitutes a very fast, efficient and robust method for the Extreme Wind Speed modeling.

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is the investigation of the main aspects of optimal reliability allocation with respect to the design of hybrid electric vehicles. In particular, with reference to the hybrid electric vehicle propulsion system, the problem of data uncertainty, due to a scarce knowledge of the components' reliabilities, is taken into account. This problem is crucial for new technology systems and it is faced with a Bayesian approach: components' reliabilities are considered as random variables, characterised in the paper by negative log‐gamma distributions.Design/methodology/approach: The main aspects of optimal reliability allocation with the design of hybrid electric vehicles are presented, pointing out the opportunity of a reliability evaluation in the planning stage.Findings: The topic of a series hybrid vehicle reliability is addressed, nevertheless results can be easily extended to the parallel configuration. In particular, the opportunity of a reliability evaluation of the propulsion system in the design stage is highlighted, mainly when new technology components are involved.Originality/value: The value of the paper consists in the methodology allowing to express the system reliability uncertainty as a function of component uncertain data. Then, as far as concern the practical implications, the optimal allocation of the components' reliabilities can be efficiently performed, in order to minimise the system total cost respecting a prefixed value of the system reliability. In the final part of the paper, a numerical application, related to a series hybrid electric vehicle propulsion system, is presented to show the feasibility of the approach.