Knowing the spatiotemporal variability of temperature and precipitation, as well as their future projections, is essential to assess environmental risks and plan long-term mitigation and adaptation. In this study, the General Circulation Models (GCMs) HadGEM3-GC31-LL, MRI-ESM2-0 and ACCESS-ESM1-5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) have been used, under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SPP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), to project the minimum and maximum air temperature and the mean annual precipitation in Atlacomulco Rural Development District (ARDD). 30 meteorological stations were used to perform regionalized climate change projections by downscaling using LARS-WG 7. The expected changes were evaluated for three time horizons: near horizon (2021–2040), mid horizon (2041–2060) and far horizon (2061–2080); compared to the historical period (1985–2017). Based on the results, the annual minimum temperature towards the far horizon is projected to increase by 2.0 ºC with SSP2-4.5, and 3.1 ºC with SSP5-8.5; while the annual maximum temperature towards the far horizon is projected to increase between 2.5 ºC with SSP2-4.5 and 3.8 ºC using SSP5-8.5. Precipitation shows an increase for SSP2-4.5 in the near and middle horizons with 15.7 and 42.5 mm.year⁻¹, respectively, while the largest decrease is projected towards the middle horizon of SSP5-8.5 with − 26.3 mm.year⁻¹. The findings of this study provide detailed information on climate change projections in the ARDD and can serve as a useful guide for the management of different ecosystems.

Agricultural drought is a condition that threatens natural ecosystems, water security, and food security. The timely identification of an agricultural drought event is essential to mitigating its effects. However, achieving a reliable and accurate assessment is challenging due to the interannual variability of precipitation in a region. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify the months with drought during the agricultural cycle of the maize crop (Zea mays L.) in the Atlacomulco Rural Development District (ARDD) as a study area using the SPI and SPEI indices and their impact on each phenological stage. The results show that when analyzing the historical period (1985–2017), the ARDD is a region prone to agricultural droughts with a duration of one month. The stages of grain filling and ripening were the most vulnerable, since SPI and SPEI-1 quantify that 25% and 31% of the total months with drought occur during those stages, respectively. Towards the 2041–2080 horizon, the MCG ACCESS-ESM1-5 with the SSP2-4.5 scenario identified an occurrence of dry periods with 17% and 20% by SPI and SPEI, respectively, while for SSP5-8.5, 17% and 22% of the total number of periods corresponded to dry months with SPI and SPEI, respectively. Greater recurrence will be observed in the future, specifically after the year 2061, meaning an increase in the frequency of agricultural drought events in the region, causing difficult and erratic productive conditions for each agricultural cycle and threatening sustainable development. Therefore, it is necessary to take action to mitigate the effects of climate change in this sector.

Rainfed agriculture in Mexico is characterized by the threat of crop failure due to multiple stress factors, the most significant of which are adverse climatic conditions. Maize is one of the most important staple crops, used for both consumption and livelihoods. However, climate variability and change are threatening to exacerbate yield gaps and increase variability in yields from one year to the next, particularly due to changes in temperature and rainfall. Therefore, using the CMIP6 GCM ACCESS-ESM1-5 and the AquaCrop model, the impacts of climate change on maize yields were assessed for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios in the study area known as the Atlacomulco Rural Development District (ARDD), considering a projection towards three horizons, 2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2061–2080, compared to a historical period (1985–2020). Through the metrics used for the validation of the AquaCrop model, it was possible to determine that the simulated values were satisfactorily adjusted to the yields measured by the Agricultural and Livestock Information System (SIAP) from 2003 to 2020 (0.7 ton ha⁻¹ < RMSE > 1.3 ton ha⁻¹; 0.1 < d-index > 0.8; 0.2% < NRMSE > 0.7%; −0.7 < EF > 0.3 and 0.4 < r > 0.8). Future climate change estimates in the ARDD indicate that the average temperatures could increase by between 1.8 and 2.8 °C, while the effective precipitation tends to decrease by up to 7.5−11% through SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, during the agricultural cycle. The model results indicate that by the year 2080, maize production in the ARDD will increase from 3.5 ton ha⁻¹ (historical) to 4.2 ton ha⁻¹ and 4.4 ton ha⁻¹, which represents an increase of 21% and 24% for SSP2.4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively.

Temperature is the main driving factor for plant development and growth and determines, in an important way, crop yields and is projected to increase under various climate change scenarios, which is expected to affect the thermo-sensitive crop like corn. Therefore, an attempt has been made to identify the spatio-temporal behavior of temperature, through the accumulation of growing degree days (GDD) in the Atlacomulco Rural Development District (ARDD) of Mexico. The maximum and minimum temperatures for the historical period 1985-2017 and projected under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios for distant time horizon (2061-2080) were analysed. It was identified that the average GDD in the ARDD corresponds to 1,440 ºC, being the northern zone the one with the highest accumulation with up to 1800 ºC. SSP2-4.5 identifies an increase of 298 ºC with respect to historical values, while SSP5-8.5 indicates the greatest increase of up to 33% in the accumulation of GDD with an average value of 1,914 ºC. The warming that is projected in the distant horizon allows identifying warm characteristics in the ARDD, which could increase corn production in this temperate climate.

La temperatura, es una medida de la cantidad de calor, que afectan el crecimiento y desarrollo del cultivo de maíz. El concepto de unidades de calor se utiliza en varios estudios fenológicos para la predicción de los cambios fenológicos de los seres vivos. Una forma directa para calcular las unidades de calor es mediante el cálculo de los grados días de desarrollo (GDD), este concepto cuantifica la relación entre la fenología del maíz y la temperatura. Se realizó una revisión de literatura sobre el efecto de temperatura en especial los grados días de desarrollo (GDD) para evaluar los cambios fenológicos y su relación con las actividades culturales.en el cultivo de maíz. Esta investigación se realizó durante el año 2024, obteniéndose información reciente de las plataformas científicas Science Direct y Redalyc, consultando artículos de investigación centrados en los índices agroclimáticos aplicados al cultivo de maíz. En él se describe un marco teórico que concentra diferentes casos de estudio, retomando la información generada en los principales sitios maiceros a nivel mundial, lo que da como resultado un amplio conjunto de conceptos interrelacionados para una mejor comprensión del tema. A partir de la presente revisión, ha sido documentado que los GDD son un método simple y ampliamente utilizado para monitorear y estimar los estados fenológicos del cultivo de maíz, sin embargo, su aplicación depende del conocimiento de información agronómica y ambiental.