Ecosystem services contribute significantly to human development, with water production being a crucial component. Climate and land use changes can impact water availability within a basin. In this context, researching water-related areas is essential for formulating policies to protect and manage hydrological services. The objective of this study was to estimate water yield in the sub-basins of the Tabacay and Aguilán rivers under climate change scenarios in 2030, 2040, and 2050, combined with scenarios of changes in land cover and land use. The InVEST model was employed to analyze water yield. The results show that crop areas were identified as the lowest water yield in future scenarios, and forested areas, particularly the region where the Cubilán Protected Forest is located, contribute the most to water yield in the subbasin. Besides, water yield has increased in the historic period (2016–2018) due to the conservation and reforestation initiatives carried out by the Municipal Public Service Company for Drinking Water, Sewerage, and Environmental Sanitation of the city of Azogues in 2018, the so-called Reciprocal Agreements for Water. Additionally, an increase in water yield is projected for future scenarios. This study can serve as a basis for decision-makers to identify areas that should prioritize protection and conservation.

Globally, ecosystem services face significant degradation due to land use and land cover change (LULC) driven by human development. Despite numerous habitat quality assessments, comprehensive studies in high-mountain equatorial region basins remain scarce. This research addresses assessing habitat quality in Ecuador’s sub-basins of the Aguilán and Tabacay Rivers, with projections extending to 2050. This study considered anthropogenic threats and examined two land use change scenarios. The “Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs” (InVEST) model was used for the evaluation. A habitat quality index (HQI) was developed and categorized into five classes. The results showed that in 2018, over 50% of the study area had medium, high, and very high habitat quality levels, partly due to implementing policies, such as Reciprocal Water Agreements, developed by local initiatives. However, future projections suggest a declining trend, particularly in urban and cropland areas, highlighting the need to reinforce proactive policies. The findings of this study contribute to addressing existing gaps in habitat quality research in high-mountain regions, providing key scientific evidence to support conservation strategies, land use planning, and watershed management.