Numerous studies have been conducted to project temperature-related mortality under climate change scenarios. However, most of the previous evidence has been limited to the total or non-accidental mortality, resulting in insufficient knowledge on the influence of climate change on different types of disease. We aimed to project future temperature impact on mortality from 16 causes under multiple climate change models in a coastal city of China. We first estimated the baseline exposure-response relationships between daily average temperature and cause-specific mortality during 2009-2018. Then, we acquired downscaled future temperature projections from 28 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Finally, we combined these exposure-response associations with projected temperature to estimate the change in the temperature-related death burden in different future decades in comparison to the 2010 s, assuming no demographic changes and population acclimatization. We found a consistently decreasing trend in cold-related mortality but a steep rise in heat-related mortality among 16 causes under climate change scenarios. Compared with the 2010 s, the net change in the fraction of total mortality attributable to temperature are projected to -0.54% (95% eCI: -1.69% to 0.71%) and -0.38% (95% eCI: -2.73% to 2.12%) at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. However, the magnitude of future cold and heat effects varied by different causes of death. A net reduction of future temperature-related death burden was observed among 10 out of 15 causes, with estimates ranging from -5.02% (95% eCI: -17.42% to 2.50%) in mental disorders to -1.01% (95% eCI: -5.56% to 3.28%) in chronic lower respiratory disease. Conversely, the rest diseases are projected to experience a potential net increase of temperature-related death burden, with estimates ranging from 0.44% (95% eCI: -4.40% to 6.02%) in ischemic heart disease and 4.80% (95% eCI: -0.04% to 9.84%) in external causes. Our study indicates that the mortality burden of climate change varied greatly by the mortality categories. Further investigations are warranted to comprehensively understand the impacts of climate change on different types of disease across various regions.

The spatiotemporal characteristics and human health risks of 12 heavy metals (Al, As, Be, Cd, Cr, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, and Tl) in fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) in Zhejiang Province were investigated. The annual average PM_2.5 concentration was 58.83 µg/m³ in 2015 in Zhejiang. Element contents in PM_2.5 varied greatly with the season and locations. Al, Pb, and Mn were the most abundant elements among the studied metal(loid)s in PM_2.5. The non-carcinogenic risks of the 12 elements through inhalation and dermal contact exposure were lower than the safe level for children and adults. However, there were potential non-carcinogenic risks of Tl, As, and Sb for children and Tl for adults through ingestion exposure. The carcinogenic risks from As, Be, Cd, Cr, Pb, and Ni through inhalation exposure were less than the acceptable level (1 × 10⁻⁴) for children and adults. Pb may carry a potential carcinogenic risk for both children and adults through ingestion. More attention should be paid to alleviate non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks posed by particle-bound toxic elements through ingestion exposure.

Few studies have been conducted to investigate the acute health effects of visibility and haze, which may be regarded as proxy indicators of ambient air pollution. We used a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) combined with quasi-Poisson regression to estimate the relationship between visibility, haze and mortality in Ningbo, a coastal city of China. We found that the mortality risk of visibility was statistically significant only on the current day, while the risk of haze and PM₁₀ peaked on the second day and could last for three days. When the visibility was less than 10 km, each 1 km decrease of visibility at lag 0 day was associated with a 0.78% (95% CI: 0.22–1.36%) increase in total mortality and a 1.61% (95% CI: 0.39–2.85%) increase in respiratory mortality. The excess risk of haze at lag 0–2 days on total mortality, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was 7.76% (95% CI: 3.29–12.42%), 7.73% (95% CI: 0.12–15.92%) and 17.77% (95% CI: 7.64–28.86%), respectively. Greater effects of air pollution were observed during the cold season than in the warm season, and the elderly were at higher risk compared to youths. The effects of visibility and haze were attenuated by single pollutants. These findings suggest that visibility and haze could be used as surrogates of air quality where pollutant data are scarce, and strengthen the evidence to develop policy to control air pollution and protect vulnerable populations.