The objective of this study is to establish a framework for analyzing infrastructure dynamics affecting the long-term steady state, and hence resilience in civil infrastructure systems. To this end, a multi-agent simulation model was created to capture important phenomena affecting the dynamics of coupled human-infrastructure systems and model the long-term performance regimes of infrastructure. The proposed framework captures the following three factors that shape the dynamics of coupled human-infrastructure systems: (i) engineered physical infrastructure; (ii) human actors; and (iii) chronic and acute stressors. A complex system approach was adopted to examine the long-term resilience of infrastructure based on the understanding of performance regimes, as well as tipping points at which shifts in the performance regime of infrastructure occur under the impact of external stressors and/or change in internal dynamics. The application of the proposed framework is demonstrated in a case of urban water distribution infrastructure using the data from a numerical case study network. The developed multi-agent simulation model was then used in examining the system resilience over a 100-year horizon under stressors such as population change and funding constraints. The results identified the effects of internal dynamics and external stressors on the resilience landscape of infrastructure systems. Furthermore, the results also showed the capability of the framework in capturing and simulating the underlying mechanisms affecting human-infrastructure dynamics, as well as long-term regime shifts and tipping point behaviors. Therefore, the integrated framework proposed in this paper enables building complex system-based theories for a more advanced understanding of civil infrastructure resilience.

More than one billion people will face water scarcity within the next ten years due to climate change and unsustainable water usage, and this number is only expected to grow exponentially in the future. At current water use rates, supply-side demand management is no longer an effective way to combat water scarcity. Instead, many municipalities and water agencies are looking to demand-side solutions to prevent major water loss. While changing conservation behavior is one demand-based strategy, there is a growing movement toward the adoption of water conservation technology as a way to solve water resource depletion. Installing technology into one’s household requires additional costs and motivation, creating a gap between the overall potential households that could adopt this technology, and how many actually do. This study identified and modeled a variety of demographic and household characteristics, social network influence, and external factors such as water price and rebate policy to see their effect on residential water conservation technology adoption. Using Agent-based Modeling and data obtained from the City of Miami Beach, the coupled effects of these factors were evaluated to examine the effectiveness of different pathways towards the adoption of more water conservation technologies. The results showed that income growth and water pricing structure, more so than any of the demographic or building characteristics, impacted household adoption of water conservation technologies. The results also revealed that the effectiveness of rebate programs depends on conservation technology cost and the affluence of the community. Rebate allocation did influence expensive technology adoption, with the potential to increase the adoption rate by 50%. Additionally, social network connections were shown to have an impact on the rate of adoption independent of price strategy or rebate status. These findings will lead the way for municipalities and other water agencies to more strategically implement interventions to encourage household technology adoption based on the characteristics of their communities.

Environmental regulations can greatly affect the operation of new and existing infrastructure projects. In fact, the economic performance of infrastructure projects is closely related to environmental regulations whose landscape is extremely dynamic. To assist infrastructure project sectors in better coping with environmental regulatory changes, this study proposes guidelines for the robust adaptation to environmental regulations through information collected from an exploratory research process. As part of these guidelines, a process map model was developed that details the different stages in the environmental regulation development process, including prerulemaking, proposed rule development and publication, commenting period, final rule development and publication, and post-promulgation. Five adaptation subprocesses (i.e., regulatory horizon scanning, stakeholder engagement, risk and opportunity assessment, response strategy development, and compliance implementation) are examined to help regulated entities better adapt to regulatory changes across different regulatory stages. This information has the potential to provide companies with a structured stage-by-stage approach for dealing with uncertainties arising from environmental regulation changes.

Infrastructure projects experience different regulatory impacts during permitting, operations, and decommissioning. However, no framework is in place to provide a foundation for infrastructure operators and administrators to take advantage of the opportunities (e.g., gain competitive advantage) and cope with the risks (e.g., risk of noncompliance) related to regulatory requirements. This study aimed to identify the existing methodologies and emerging practices to proactively identify, evaluate, and respond to the impact of regulatory changes. To this end, an exploratory research approach was adopted, through which multiple field studies were conducted with interviewees from various functions and units of regulated entities as well as from regulatory agencies. Accordingly, this study established a future-proofing framework that enables companies operating in infrastructure sectors to more proactively respond to and comply with regulations during their projects. In general, the regulatory future-proofing framework encompasses two main components: (1) core subprocesses, which distinguish job sharing and specific responsibilities in dealing with regulatory changes; and (2) influencing factors, which represent overarching areas that make the subprocesses work more effectively. The framework was validated by experts and would enable companies to more effectively and proactively prepare for regulatory adaptation and response in infrastructure projects.

The objective of this study was to create an integrated simulation framework to examine the dynamics that affect the long-term resilience of infrastructure systems. The proposed framework captures three phenomena that shape the dynamics of infrastructure systems: (1) deterioration of physical networks; (2) renewal and adaptation decision-making processes of agencies; and (3) chronic and acute stressors. Accordingly, a complex systems approach was adopted to examine the long-term resilience of infrastructure based on understanding of performance regimes as well as critical points at which shifts in the performance regime of infrastructure occur under chronic and acute stressors. The application of the proposed framework is demonstrated in a case study of a water distribution network where the system resilience was examined over a 100-year horizon under stressors such as aging infrastructure, population change, and funding constraints. The results identified the effects of internal dynamics and external stressors on the resilience landscape of infrastructure systems. The proposed framework enables building complex system-based theories for a more holistic understanding of infrastructure resilience.