What is the impact of geopolitics on the geometry of global trade? What is the key structural role that led to the emergence of the US–China trade bipolarity? Here, we study the geometry of international trade, taking into account not only the direct but also the indirect trade relations. We consider the self-weight of each country as an indicator of its intrinsic robustness to exogenous shocks. We assess the vulnerability of a country to potential demand or supply shocks based on the entropy (diversification) of its trade flows. By considering the indirect trade relations, we found that the key structural role that led to the emergence of the US–China trade bipolarity is that of the intermediary hub that acts as a “bridge” between different trade clusters. The US and China occupied key network positions of high betweenness centrality as early as 2010. As international trade was increasingly dependent on only these two intermediary trade hubs, this fact led to geopolitical tensions such as the US–China trade war. Therefore, betweenness centrality could serve as a structural indicator, forewarning of possible upcoming geopolitical tensions. The US–China trade bipolarity is also strongly present in self-weights, where a race in terms of their intrinsic robustness to exogenous shocks is more than evident. It is also interesting that the US and China are not only the top shock spreaders but also the most susceptible to shocks. However, China can act more as a shock spreader than a shock receiver, while for the USA, the opposite is true. Regarding the impact of geopolitics, we found that the Russia–Ukraine conflict forced Ukraine to diversify both its exports and imports, aiming to lower its vulnerability to possible shocks. Finally, we found that international trade is becoming increasingly oligopolistic, even when indirect trade relationships are taken into account, thus indicating that a “Deep Oligopoly” has formed.

We examine trade flows for Arab nations concentrating on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Pan-Arab Free Trade Area (PAFTA) areas, to identify opportunities to enhance intra-Arab trade and facilitate regional integration. We employ panel data for the years 2003–2017 and a structural gravity model together with an “aggregate” trade potential measure that treats the GCC and PAFTA areas as single countries. Results suggest that, by 2015, intra-area trade had reached maximum capacity for both blocs. Potential to trade also reached capacity with many of the largest Free Trade Areas around the world, however, opportunities for trade expansion that still exist with the MERCOSUR and ASEAN, as well as many distinct destinations, can assist in strategic planning to enhance integration efforts.

We examine the impact of the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea on global agricultural trade flows. Using a structural gravity model with a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator and intra-country sales, we differentiate the effects of the war from those of the sanctions on trade. We estimate conditional General Equilibrium PPML counterfactual scenarios and apply a “conventional two-step approach” to assess trade potential for Russia, Ukraine and European Union members. Our results suggest that while both Russia’s and Ukraine’s trade flows benefited during the post-annexation period, sanctions had a negative impact, with Russia experiencing more severe effects.

This article examines the evolution of Greek Intra-Industry Trade (IIT) in agri-food products during the period 2002-2016, concentrating on evident changes in IIT shares after the onset of the 2009 Greek debt crisis. The severity of the Greek crisis, which affected the main determinants of IIT, presents a unique opportunity to study producers’ reaction and infer on policy targets to assist trade during economic downturns. I concentrate on agricultural and food products, as they have received less attention in the IIT literature and examine IIT through the Grubel-Lloyd index and by separating IIT into Horizontal IIT (HIIT), and high and low-quality Vertical IIT (HVIIT and LVIIT). Results indicate the post-2009 growth of high-quality VIIT exports in products that require a high degree of processing. Panel VAR analysis indicates that negative shocks to GDP have a significant and persistent negative impact on VIIT and HVIIT.