Global climate change has the potential to modify the habitats of plant species, thereby exerting a direct impact on biodiversity. Betula species, belonging to the Betulaceae family and commonly known as birch trees, are widely distributed in China. They possess crucial ecological and economic value. However, few studies have examined the potentially suitable distribution of Betula species in China under the influence of climate change. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the biodiversity patterns of Betula species in China in response to future climate change. In this study, we selected five representative Betula species and collected their distribution records from China. Based on 19 climate variables, the main environmental factors for each species were identified and optimal parameter combinations were determined. The MaxEnt model was employed to construct potentially suitable distribution models for these Betula species, both currently and in the future. The results indicated that the AUC and TSS values for the five species models were greater than 0.903, suggesting a high level of accuracy. The most important climate variable impacting the distribution of Betula species is the temperature seasonality standard deviation. Among the five species, Betula utilis possesses the largest total suitable distribution area, covering 313.42 × 10⁴ km². Additionally, under future climate warming, the distribution of the studied Betula species will shift toward higher latitudes and altitudes. Species in the southwestern region may migrate toward habitats where the effects of climate change are mitigated, whereas Betula species in the low-latitude southern regions face a substantial threat due to climate change. In the northern areas, under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the region experiencing species expansion was much smaller compared to the area of species contraction predicted. Our findings reveal the responses of Betula species to future climate change and provide valuable insights for guiding the future conservation and utilization of Betula forest resources.

Climate change poses significant challenges to forest biodiversity by altering species distributions. This study employed the MaxEnt model to predict the current and potential future suitable habitats of five Alnus species in China under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Model accuracy was high, with temperature seasonality identified as the most influential variable. In addition, predicted range shifts showed species-specific patterns, with most species expanding toward higher latitudes and elevations. In contrast, Alnus ferdinandi-coburgii exhibited consistent habitat contraction. These findings enhance understanding of the climatic responses of Alnus species and provide a scientific basis for targeted conservation and management strategies under future climate change, and may offer insights into habitat responses of Alnus species in other temperate regions.