Our study aims to enhance process understanding of the long‐term (decadal and longer) cyclic marsh dynamics by identifying the mechanisms that translate large‐scale physical forcing in the system into vegetation change, in particular (i) the initiation of lateral erosion on an expanding marsh, and (ii) the control of seedling establishment in front of an eroding marsh‐cliff. Short‐term sediment dynamics (i.e., seasonal and shorter changes in sediment elevation) at the mudflat causes variation in mudflat elevation over time (δz_TF). The resulting difference in elevation between the tidal flat and adjacent marsh (ΔZ) initiates lateral marsh erosion. Marsh erosion rate was found to depend on sediment type and to increase with increasing ΔZ and hydrodynamic exposure. Laboratory and field experiments revealed that seedling establishment was negatively impacted by an increasing δz_TF. As the amplitude of δz_TF increases towards the channel, expanding marshes become more prone to lateral erosion the further they extend on a tidal flat, and the chance for seedlings to establish increases with the distance that marsh has eroded back towards the land. This process‐based understanding, showing the role of sediment dynamics as explanatory factor for marsh cyclicity, is important for protecting and restoring valuable marsh ecosystems. Overall, our experiments emphasize the need for understanding the connections between neighbouring ecosystems such as mudflat and salt marsh.

Understanding the mechanisms limiting and facilitating salt marsh vegetation initial establishment is of widespread importance due to the many valuable services salt marsh ecosystems offer. Salt marsh dynamics have been investigated by many previous studies, but the mechanisms that enable or disable salt marsh initial establishment are still understudied. Recently, the “windows of opportunity” (WoO) concept has been proposed as a framework providing an explanation for the initial establishment of biogeomorphic ecosystems and the role of physical disturbance herein. A WoO is a sufficiently long disturbance‐free period following seedling dispersal, which enables successful establishment. By quantifying the occurrence of WoO, vegetation establishment pattern can be predicted. For simplicity sake and as prove of concept, the original WoO framework considers tidal inundation as the only physical disturbance to salt marsh establishment, whereas the known disturbance from tidal currents and wind waves is ignored. In this study, we incorporate hydrodynamic forcing in the WoO framework. Its spatial and temporal variability is considered explicitly in a salt marsh establishment model. We used this model to explain the observed episodic salt marsh recruitment in the Westerschelde Estuary, Netherlands. Our results reveal that this model can significantly increase the spatial prediction accuracy of salt marsh establishment compared to a model that excludes the hydrodynamic disturbance. Using the better performing model, we further illustrate how tidal flat morphology determines salt marsh establishing elevation and width via hydrodynamic force distribution. Our model thus offers a valuable tool to understand and predict bottlenecks of salt marsh restoration and consequences of changing environmental conditions due to climate change.

Coastal vegetation can reduce extreme water levels during storm events, but the controlling factors and processes in complex estuary or delta systems are still unclear. This limits an effective implementation of nature-based coastal defences in delta mega-cities in low-lying coastal areas. Here we have numerically modelled how mangroves can offer coastal protection to the large coastal cities located in the Pearl River Delta (China), such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen, during strong typhoons, like Hato (2017). Water level attenuation by mangroves is effective during extreme water level conditions and differences in mangrove forests’ properties drive their coastal protection function. The local (within-wetland) attenuation of extreme water levels is more effective with wide vegetation patches and higher vegetation drag. Narrower vegetation patches can still provide non-local (upstream) water level attenuation if located in the upper estuary channels, but their design needs to avoid amplification of water levels in other delta areas.

Salt marshes are valuable ecosystems that provide important ecosystem services. Given the global scale of marsh loss due to climate change and coastal squeeze, there is a pressing need to identify the critical extrinsic (wind exposure and foreshore morphology) and intrinsic factors (soil and vegetation properties) affecting the erosion of salt marsh edges. In this study, we quantified rates of cliff lateral retreat (i.e., the eroding edge of a salt marsh plateau) using a time series of aerial photographs taken over four salt marsh sites in the Westerschelde estuary, the Netherlands. In addition, we experimentally quantified the erodibility of sediment cores collected from the marsh edge of these four marshes using wave tanks. Our results revealed the following: (i) at the large scale, wind exposure and the presence of pioneer vegetation in front of the cliff were the key factors governing cliff retreat rates; (ii) at the intermediate scale, foreshore morphology was partially related to cliff retreat; (iii) at the local scale, the erodibility of the sediment itself at the marsh edge played a large role in determining the cliff retreat rate; and (iv) at the mesocosm scale, cliff erodibility was determined by soil properties and belowground root biomass. Thus, both extrinsic and intrinsic factors determined the fate of the salt marsh but at different scales. Our study highlights the importance of understanding the scale dependence of the factors driving the evolution of salt marsh landscapes.