This study develops a two-dimensional value–geological hazard susceptibility framework for the resilience-oriented conservation of Third Front industrial heritage. Heritage value is quantified using the AHP–TOPSIS method, while geological hazard susceptibility is predicted by coupling the Certainty Factor (CF) with Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and XGBoost models; model performance is evaluated using an independent test set. Using 24 Third Front industrial heritage sites in Lizhou District, Guangyuan City, as a case study, the research first classifies heritage value and assesses geological hazard susceptibility. The results indicate that CF–RF provides the most favorable overall performance among the three CF-coupled models, while hazard-site density generally increases with susceptibility class. Heritage value is then integrated with the CF–RF susceptibility results to construct a Value–Susceptibility Matrix. The 24 sites are classified into four groups—high value–high susceptibility, high value–low susceptibility, low value–high susceptibility, and low value–low susceptibility—comprising 4, 9, 5, and 6 sites, respectively. Differentiated pathways are proposed for these groups, including conservation under safety constraints, preventive conservation and adaptive reuse, limited intervention, and routine maintenance. By linking heritage value identification, geological hazard susceptibility assessment, and differentiated conservation strategies, the study provides a methodological reference for the sustainable conservation, adaptive reuse, and resilience management of Third Front industrial heritage in complex mountainous environments. The framework contributes to sustainability by supporting more efficient allocation of limited conservation resources, continued heritage use, and long-term adaptive management.

This study innovatively integrates the AHP-TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation method the Coefficient of Determination with model construct(CF)-Random Forest(RF) toadual dimensional "value-risk" assessment framework. This enables a systematic integrated evaluation of the value and geological hazard risks asso-ciated with industrial heritage sites from the Third Front Construction. Taking Lizhou District, Guangyuan City as a case study the research first identified through heritage value quantification and geological hazard zoning, sites “high-value” sites. Subsequently on five “high-risk” “high-value” heritage, and eight “low-risk”, four categories of conservation units were delineated based the “value-risk” matrix, proposing differentiated resilience enhancement pathways. This research not only provides a basis for the scientific conservation and adap-tive reuse of Third Front heritage in Lizhou District but also offers an operational theoretical and practical paradigm for the adaptive management of industrial her-itage in similar mountainous regions.