Frederico Almeida

Mr. Frederico Almeida


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

2Years (2025-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

View All Publications
11 March 2025 in Energies
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
FMFlávia Monteiro
Flávia Monteiro
SMSuzane Monteiro
Suzane Monteiro
CRCarlos Rodrigues
Carlos Rodrigues
JRJosivan Reis
Josivan Reis
UBUbiratan Bezerra
Ubiratan Bezerra
FAFrederico Almeida
Frederico Almeida
In the electricity market, the issue of contract negotiation prices between generators/traders and buyers is of particular relevance, as an accurate contract modeling leads to increased financial returns and business sustainability for the various participating agents, encouraging investments in specialized sectors for price forecasting and risk analysis. This paper presents a methodology applied in experiments on energy forward curve scenarios using a set of techniques, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous regressors (SARIMAX), and Feature Engineering to generate a 10-year projection of the Conventional Long-Term Price. The model validation proved to be effective, with errors of only 4.5% by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and slightly less than 2% by Mean Absolute Error (MAE), for a time series spanning from 7 January 2012 to 31 August 2024, in the Brazilian energy market.