Summary: 1. Over the past two decades, Ixodes scapularis, the primary tick vector of the Lyme disease pathogen Borrelia burgdorferi in North America has expanded its range northward from the USA to colonize new regions in southern Canada. We have previously projected range increases for I. scapularis based on temperature suitability, but to what extent this is matched by actual tick range expansion is unknown.2. Since 1990, I. scapularis ticks have been collected across Canada offering a unique opportunity to track the range expansion of an arthropod vector. We used these data to model time‐to‐establishment for tick populations across Canada to identify factors influencing the rate of spread.3. Our results point to both long‐distance dispersal of ticks by migratory birds and local dispersal by resident hosts as important potential mechanisms underlying patterns of tick range expansion.4. Temperature (accumulated degree days > 0 °C) was the most important determinant of environmental suitability for tick population establishment, suggesting that climate warming may facilitate range expansion.5. Model projections suggest that I. scapularis range will expand c. 46 km year⁻¹ in the coming decade, with climate warming expected to increase the rate of spread. This expansion is likely to result in a substantial increase in human Lyme disease risk, with the proportion of the human population of eastern Canada inhabiting areas with established tick populations increasing from 18% in 2010 to over 80% by 2020.6. This first empirical model of I. scapularis invasion supports theoretical range projections based on climate suitability and provides a unique data‐driven estimate of the speed of northward range expansion for I. scapularis at the continental scale.7. Synthesis and applications. By tracking I. scapularis invasion in Canada over the past two decades, we show that I. scapularis is rapidly expanding its range and is likely to colonize the most densely populated areas of southern Canada in the coming decade. These projections suggest that prompt action is necessary to prepare the Canadian public for a likely epidemic of Lyme disease, with emphasis on focusing surveillance activities to confirm the locations of emerging Lyme disease risk.

Lyme disease is emerging in Canada due to expansion of the range of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis from the United States. National surveillance for human Lyme disease cases began in Canada in 2009. Reported numbers of cases increased from 144 cases in 2009 to 2025 in 2017. It has been claimed that few (< 10%) Lyme disease cases are reported associated with i) supposed under-diagnosis resulting from perceived inadequacies of serological testing for Lyme disease, ii) expectation that incidence in Canadian provinces and neighbouring US states should be similar, and iii) analysis of serological responses of dogs to the agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi. We argue that performance of serological testing for Lyme disease is well studied, and variations in test performance at different disease stages are accounted for in clinical diagnosis of Lyme disease, and in surveillance case definitions. Extensive surveillance for tick vectors has taken place in Canada providing a clear picture of the emergence of risk in the Canadian environment. This surveillance shows that the geographic scope of I. scapularis populations and Lyme disease risk is limited but increasing in Canada. The reported incidence of Lyme disease in Canada is consistent with this pattern of environmental risk, and the differences in Lyme disease incidence between US states and neighbouring Canadian provinces are consistent with geographic differences in environmental risk. Data on serological responses in dogs from Canada and the US are consistent with known differences in environmental risk, and in numbers of reported Lyme disease cases, between the US and Canada. The high level of consistency in data from human case and tick surveillance, and data on serological responses in dogs, suggests that a high degree of under-reporting in Canada is unlikely. We speculate that approximately one third of cases are reported in regions of emergence of Lyme disease, although prospective studies are needed to fully quantify under-reporting. In the meantime, surveillance continues to identify and track the ongoing emergence of Lyme disease, and the risk to the public, in Canada.

Background: It has been suggested that increasing biodiversity, specifically host diversity, reduces pathogen and parasite transmission amongst wildlife (causing a “dilution effect”), whereby transmission amongst efficient reservoir hosts, (e.g. Peromyscus spp. mice for the agent of Lyme disease Borrelia burgdorferi) is reduced by the presence of other less efficient host species. If so, then increasing biodiversity should inhibit pathogen and parasite invasion. Methods: We investigated this hypothesis by studying invasion of B. burgdorferi and its tick vector Ixodes scapularis in 71 field sites in southeastern Canada. Indices of trapped rodent host diversity, and of biodiversity of the wider community, were investigated as variables explaining the numbers of I. scapularis collected and B. burgdorferi infection in these ticks. A wide range of alternative environmental explanatory variables were also considered. Results: The observation of low I. scapularis abundance and low B. burgdorferi infection prevalence in sites where I. scapularis were detected was consistent with early-stage invasion of the vector. There were significant associations between the abundance of ticks and season, year of study and ambient temperature. Abundance of host-seeking larvae was significantly associated with deer density, and abundance of host-seeking larvae and nymphs were positively associated with litter layer depth. Larval host infestations were lower where the relative proportion of non-Peromyscus spp. was high. Infestations of hosts with nymphs were lower when host species richness was higher, but overall nymphal abundance increased with species richness because Peromyscus spp. mouse abundance and host species richness were positively correlated. Nymphal infestations of hosts were lower where tree species richness was higher. B. burgdorferi infection prevalence in ticks varied significantly with an index of rates of migratory bird-borne vector and pathogen invasion. Conclusions: I. scapularis abundance and B. burgdorferi prevalence varied with explanatory variables in patterns consistent with the known biology of these species in general, and in the study region in particular. The evidence for a negative effect of host biodiversity on I. scapularis invasion was mixed. However, some evidence suggests that community biodiversity beyond just host diversity may have direct or indirect inhibitory effects on parasite invasion that warrant further study.

Toxoplasma gondii, a zoonotic protozoan parasite, infects mammals and birds worldwide. Infection in humans is often asymptomatic, though illnesses can occur in immunocompromised hosts and the fetuses of susceptible women infected during pregnancy. In Nunavik, Canada, 60% of the Inuit population has measurable antibodies against T. gondii. Handling and consumption of wildlife have been identified as risk factors for exposure. Serological evidence of exposure has been reported for wildlife in Nunavik; however, T. gondii has not been detected in wildlife tissues commonly consumed by Inuit. We used a magnetic capture DNA extraction and real-time PCR protocol to extract and amplify T. gondii DNA from large quantities of tissues (up to 100 g) of 441 individual animals in Nunavik: 166 ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus), 156 geese (Branta canadensis and Chen caerulescens), 61 ringed seals (Pusa hispida), 31 caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and 27 walruses (Odobenus rosmarus). DNA from T. gondii was detected in 9% (95% CI: 3–15%) of geese from four communities in western and southern Nunavik, but DNA was not detected in other wildlife species including 20% (95% CI: 12–31%) of ringed seals and 26% (95% CI: 14–43%) of caribou positive on a commercial modified agglutination test (MAT) using thawed heart muscle juice. In geese, tissue parasite burden was highest in heart, followed by brain, breast muscle, liver and gizzard. Serological results did not correlate well with tissue infection status for any wildlife species. To our knowledge, this is the first report on the detection, quantification, and characterization of DNA of T. gondii (clonal lineage II in one goose) from wildlife harvested for food in Nunavik, which supports the hypothesis that migratory geese can carry T. gondii into Nunavik where feline definitive hosts are rare. This study suggests that direct detection methods may be useful for detection of T. gondii in wildlife harvested for human consumption and provides data needed for a quantitative exposure assessment that will determine the risk of T. gondii exposure for Inuit who harvest and consume geese in Nunavik.