Long distances to facilities, topographical constraints, inadequate service capacity of institutions and insufficient/ rudimentary road & transportation network culminate into unprecedented barriers to access. These barriers gets exacerbated in presence of external factors like conflict and political disruptions. Thus, this study was conducted in rural, remote and fragile region in India measuring geographical accessibility and modelling spatial coverage of public healthcare network. Vector and raster based approaches were used to discern accessibility for various packages of service delivery. Alternative scenarios derived from local experiences were modelled using health facility, population and ancillary data. Based on that, a raster surface of travel time between facilities and population was developed by incorporating terrain, physical barriers, topography and travelling modes and speeds through various land-cover classes. Concomitantly, spatial coverage was modelled to delineate catchment areas. Further, underserved population and zonal statistics were assessed in an interactive modelling approach to ascertain spatial relationship between population, travel time and zonal boundaries. Finally, raster surface of travel time was re-modelled for the conflict situation in villages vulnerable to obstruction of access due to disturbed security scenario. Euclidean buffers revealed 11% villages without ambulatory & immunization care within 2 km radius. Similarly, for 5 km radius, 11% and 12% villages were bereft of delivery and inpatient care. Travel time accessibility analysis divulged walking scenario exhibiting lowest level of accessibility. Enabling motorized travel improved accessibility measures, with highest degree of accessibility for privately owned vehicle (motorcycle and cars). Differential results were found between packages of services where ambulatory & immunization care was relatively accessible by walking; whereas, delivery and inpatient care had a staggering average of three hours walking time. Even with best scenario, around 2/3rd population remained unserved for all package of services. Moreover, 90% villages in conflict zone grapples with inaccessibility when the scenario of heightened border tensions was considered. Our study demonstrated the application of GIS technique to facilitate evidence backed planning at granular level. Regardless of the scenario, the analysis divulged inaccessibility to delivery and inpatient care to be most pronounced and majority of population to be unserved. It was suggested to have concerted efforts to bolster already existing facilities and adapt systems approach to exploit synergies of inter-sectoral development.

Background: Financing for NCDs is encumbered by out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) assuming catastrophic proportions. Therefore, it is imperative to investigate the extent of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) on NCDs, which are burgeoning in India. Thus, our paper aims to examine the extent of CHE and impoverishment in India, in conjunction with socio-economic determinants impacting the CHE. Methods: We used cross-sectional data from nationwide healthcare surveys conducted in 2014 and 2017–18. OOPE on both outpatient and inpatient treatment was coalesced to estimate CHE on NCDs. Incidence of CHE was defined as proportion of households with OOPE exceeding 10% of household expenditure. Intensity of catastrophe was ascertained by the measure of Overshoot and Mean Positive Overshoot Indices. Further, impoverishing effects of OOPE were assessed by computing Poverty Headcount Ratio and Poverty Gap Index using India’s official poverty line. Concomitantly, we estimated the inequality in incidence and intensity of catastrophic payments using Concentration Indices. Additionally, we delineated the factors associated with catastrophic expenditure using Multinomial Logistic Regression. Results: Results indicated enormous incidence of CHE with around two-third households with NCDs facing CHE. Incidence of CHE was concentrated amongst poor that further extended from 2014(CI = − 0.027) to 2017–18(CI = − 0.065). Intensity of CHE was colossal as households spent 42.8 and 34.9% beyond threshold in 2014 and 2017-18 respectively with poor enduring greater overshoot vis-à-vis rich (CI = − 0.18 in 2014 and CI = − 0.23 in 2017–18). Significant immiserating impact of NCDs was unraveled as one-twelfth in 2014 and one-eighth households in 2017–18 with NCD burden were pushed to poverty with poverty deepening effect to the magnitude of 27.7 and 30.1% among those already below poverty on account of NCDs in 2014 and 2017–18 respectively. Further, large inter-state heterogeneities in extent of CHE and impoverishment were found and multivariate analysis indicated absence of insurance cover, visiting private providers, residing in rural areas and belonging to poorest expenditure quintile were associated with increased likelihood of incurring CHE. Conclusion: Substantial proportion of households face CHE and subsequent impoverishment due to NCD related expenses. Concerted efforts are required to augment the financial risk protection to the households, especially in regions with higher burden of NCDs.

Due to uncertainties encompassing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, mathematical models informing the trajectory of disease are being proposed throughout the world. Current pandemic is also characterized by surge in hospitalizations which has overwhelmed even the most resilient health systems. Therefore, it is imperative to assess health system preparedness in tandem with need projections for comprehensive outlook. We attempted this study to forecast the need for hospital resources for one year period and correspondingly assessed capacity and tipping points of Indian health system to absorb surges in need due to COVID-19. We employed age-structured deterministic SEIR model and modified it to allow for testing and isolation capacity to forecast the need under varying scenarios. Projections for documented cases were made for varying degree of containment and mitigation strategies. Correspondingly, data on health resources was collated from various government records. Further, we computed daily turnover of each of these resources which was then adjusted for proportion of cases requiring mild, severe and critical care to arrive at maximum number of COVID-19 cases manageable by health care system of India. Our results revealed pervasive deficits in the capacity of public health system to absorb surge in need during peak of epidemic. Also, model suggests that continuing strict lockdown measures in India after mid-May 2020 would have been ineffective in suppressing total infections significantly. Augmenting testing to 1,500,000 tests per day during projected peak (mid-September) under social-distancing measures and current test to positive rate of 9.7% would lead to more documented cases (60, 000, 000 to 90, 000, 000) culminating to surge in demand for hospital resources. A minimum allocation of 13x, 70x and 37x times more beds for mild cases, ICU beds and mechanical ventilators respectively would be required to commensurate with need under that scenario. However, if testing capacity is limited to 9,000,000 tests per day (current situation as of 19th August 2020) under continued social-distancing measures, documented cases would plummet significantly, still requiring 5x, 31x and 16x times the current allocated resources (beds for mild cases, ICU beds and mechanical ventilators respectively) to meet unmet need for COVID-19 treatment in India.

The study explores themes pertaining to access and utilization of healthcare embedded in Penchansky’s framework, viz. availability, affordability, accessibility, acceptability and accommodation, in conjunction with Anderson’s model of healthcare utilization amongst the transhumant pastoralist community of Bakarwals residing in Pir Panjal Range of Jammu and Kashmir. Bakarwals are fundamentally transhumant, but hordes of them sedentarized after militancy and conflict in the area reached its crescendo. Transhumants oscillate in space-time continuum, so it is imperative to conduct sample surveys due to non-existence of systematic surveillance data pertaining to health status and access of this group. The study employed a mixed method approach and took place during the reverse migration cycle from summer higher grazing pastures (dhoks) in the twin border districts of Poonch and Rajouri, comprising 250 structured questionnaire interviews coupled with 100 semi-structured interviews. Pir Ki Gali, Jammia Gali and Nurpur Gali transhumance routes were purposefully selected for discerning qualitative inquiry to yield cases with maximum information. A facility survey encompassing 12 primary health centres, three community health centres and two district hospitals was also conducted to ascertain supply-side factors in Bakarwal-concentrated areas. Results indicated lesser probability of utilization in higher pastures (dhoks) due to amalgamation of factors like geographical inaccessibility of modern medicine and cultural preference, but this is less pronounced in winter settlements and amongst the sedentarized. Demand for modern healthcare is also not commensurate with the supply for the same, exacerbated by non-availability of health professionals, drugs and poor quality of service provision found in the facility survey.

Background: Health outcomes in India are characterized by pervasive inequities due to deeply entrenched socio-economic gradients amongst the population. Therefore, it is imperative to investigate these systematic disparities in health, however, evidence of inequities does not commensurate with its policy objectives in India. Thus, our paper aims to examine the magnitude of and trends in horizontal inequities in self-reported morbidity and untreated morbidity in India over the period of 2004 to 2017–18. Methods: The study used cross-sectional data from nationwide healthcare surveys conducted in 2004, 2014 and 2017–18 encompassing sample size of 3,85,055; 3,35,499 and 5,57,887 individuals respectively. Erreygers concentration indices were employed to discern the magnitude and trend in horizontal inequities in self-reported morbidity and untreated morbidity. Need standardized concentration indices were further used to unravel the inter-regional and intra-regional income related inequities in outcomes of interest. Additionally, regression based decomposition approach was applied to ascertain the contributions of both legitimate and illegitimate factors in the measured inequalities. Results: Estimates were indicative of profound inequities in self-reported morbidity as inequity indices were positive and significant for all study years, connoting better-off reporting more morbidity, given their needs. These inequities however, declined marginally from 2004(HI: 0.049, p< 0.01) to 2017–18(HI: 0.045, P< 0.01). Untreated morbidity exhibited pro-poor inequities with negative concentration indices. Albeit, significant reduction in horizontal inequity was found from 2004(HI= − 0.103, p< 0.01) to 2017–18(HI = − 0.048, p< 0.01) in treatment seeking over the years. The largest contribution of inequality for both outcomes stemmed from illegitimate variables in all the study years. Our findings also elucidated inter-state heterogeneities in inequities with high-income states like Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and West Bengal evincing inequities greater than all India estimates and Northeastern states divulged equity in reporting morbidity. Inequities in untreated morbidity converged for most states except in Punjab, Chhattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh where widening of inequities were observed from 2004 to 2017–18. Conclusions: Pro-rich and pro-poor inequities in reported and untreated morbidities respectively persisted from 2004 to 2017–18 despite reforms in Indian healthcare. Magnitude of these inequities declined marginally over the years. Health policy in India should strive for targeted interventions closing inequity gap.

The study was conducted to a) Evaluate the service readiness and b) Ascertain supply side barriers inhibiting service provisioning in rural, remote and fragile district in India. We employed a mixed method study design encompassing Service Provisioning Assessment of entire network of public health facilities using Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) module of WHO in conjunction with Indian Public Health Standards Guidelines (IPHS). Qualitative information was collected via Field Observations, Key informant interviews and Focus group discussion with stakeholders ranging from leaders to laggards. A concise index of General Service Availability, Service Specific Availability and Facility Readiness was computed along with exploratory data analysis using Principal Component Analysis. Further, determinants of facility readiness were elucidated using Generalized Ordinal Logistic Model. Qualitative findings were analyzed via content analysis. Results indicated poorest readiness in lower-tier facilities with particularly abysmal readiness for basic amenities, diagnostic capacity and preparedness for emergencies and non-communicable diseases. The estimates for logistic model revealed that degree of vulnerability of facilities, type of facility and frequency of monitoring and supervision significantly impacted the readiness. Qualitative analysis divulged lack of incentives for health workers, political interference, topographical constraints and security disruptions as major barriers stymieing service provisioning in study area.