In this article, we construct an evaluation index system based on the DPSIRM framework to determine the water resources carrying capacity of Shiyan City. Then, we use an obstacle model to calculate and analyze the factors that constrain the improvement in the water resources carrying capacity in the city. The research results are as follows: (1) The water resources carrying capacity of Shiyan City was on the rise during 2011–2021, and the water resources carrying capacity of Shiyan City was continuously improved. (2) The management system is the primary obstacle subsystem, followed by the driving force system, the response system, the pressure system, the state system, and the influence system. (3) Among the specific factors, the top three obstacles are sewage treatment investment, the proportion of guaranteed harvest area in drought and flood, and the average annual fertilizer applied per unit of cultivated land. These primary factors restrict Shiyan City from improving its water resources carrying capacity. This study has important practical significance for understanding the resilience of the water system in Shiyan City; exploring the changes in the water resources carrying capacity and its obstacle factors; and guiding the development, utilization, and management of water resources in Shiyan City.