Ardabil Plain, which holds significant political and economic importance in agricultural production in Iran, has faced various challenges including climate change, economic sanctions, and limited access to global trade. Ensuring food security has become a key priority for the region. The main objective of this research is to identify a suitable crop for this critical region with regard to future climate change conditions. This study employs a new framework of the system dynamics model (SDM) and the Hybrid Weighted Averaging (HWA) method to assess the Water–Energy–Food (WEF) nexus and resource sustainability in the Ardabil Plain under different climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5). The research addresses current and future water challenges, emphasizing the need for additional energy and selecting optimal crops. Using the SDM, the study analyzes the impact of water supply fluctuations on agriculture, economic gain, and energy consumption from 2021 to 2050. The results indicate that barley is the most suitable crop for the Ardabil Plain in the near future, based on the overall ranking derived from the HWA method, which is as follows: barley > wheat > soybeans > potatoes > pears. The study highlights the significant challenges in energy supply for agriculture due to declining water levels and the increased force required by pumps to supply water to farms. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to make informed decisions in addressing water scarcity and rising energy demands in the Ardabil Plain.

Water scarcity is a growing global issue, especially in arid regions like Iran. Global food trade complicates water and food resource management by moving virtual water (the water used to produce goods) between regions. This study uses circular economy principles and life cycle assessment (LCA) to analyze virtual water use across income groups in Iran, focusing on food consumption. This study divided households into three groups: economically vulnerable, middle-class, and affluent. Lower-income households are more water-efficient, using 3.33 L per USD, compared with 0.81 L for middle-class and 0.41 L for affluent households. The per capita virtual water consumption was 3916.7 L for vulnerable groups, 3481.6 L for middle-class, and 3418 L for affluent groups—all higher than the global average. This is because they rely on low-water foods like bread and legumes. Additionally, affluent households consume 80% more red meat, which has a high water footprint. The study calls for policies to promote water-conscious diets, optimize virtual water trade, and integrate sustainability into LCA frameworks. Aligning resource management with circular economy goals can help Iran improve water security and sustainable development.