Biofuels and biochemicals play significant roles in the transition towards a fossil-free society. However, large-scale biorefineries are not yet cost-competitive with their fossil-fuel counterparts, and it is important to identify biorefinery concepts with high economic performance. For evaluating early-stage biorefinery concepts, one needs to consider not only the technical performance and process costs but also the economic performance of the full supply chain and the impacts on feedstock and product markets. This article presents and demonstrates a conceptual interdisciplinary framework that can constitute the basis for evaluations of the full supply-chain performance of biorefinery concepts. This framework considers the competition for biomass across sectors, assumes exogenous end-use product demand, and incorporates various geographical and technical constraints. The framework is demonstrated empirically through a case study of a sawmill-integrated biorefinery producing liquefied biomethane from forestry and forest industry residues. The case study results illustrate that acknowledging biomass market effects in the supply chain evaluation implies changes in both biomass prices and the allocation of biomass across sectors. The proposed framework should facilitate the identification of biorefinery concepts with a high economic performance which are robust to feedstock price changes caused by the increase in biomass demand.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between green industrial policies and domestic biofuel production among OECD countries. The analysis builds on a data set including 24 OECD countries over the time period 2000–2016. This panel is estimated using a variant of the so-called Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood model and includes the mix of demand-pull (biofuel blending mandates) and technology-push policies (government R&D), as well as the interaction between these two types of instruments. The results suggest a positive relationship between blending mandates and domestic biofuel production. Thus, a more stringent blending mandate does not only increase the use of biofuels, but also domestic production (as a share of total fuel use). Government R&D has not, however, induced domestic biofuel industrialization processes. The results even suggest a negative interaction effect between government R&D and blending mandates, in turn implying that these two polices target different technological fields. The blending mandates tend to primarily favor commercialized first-generation biofuels, while government support to biofuel R&D has instead been focused on advanced biofuel technology.

Biofuels and biochemicals play significant roles in the transition towards a fossil-free society. However, large-scale biorefineries are not yet cost-competitive with their fossil-fuel counterparts, and it is important to identify biorefinery concepts with high economic performance. For evaluating early-stage biorefinery concepts, one needs to consider not only the technical performance and process costs but also the economic performance of the full supply chain and the impacts on feedstock and product markets. This article presents and demonstrates a conceptual interdisciplinary framework that can constitute the basis for evaluations of the full supply-chain performance of biorefinery concepts. This framework considers the competition for biomass across sectors, assumes exogenous end-use product demand, and incorporates various geographical and technical constraints. The framework is demonstrated empirically through a case study of a sawmill-integrated biorefinery producing liquefied biomethane from forestry and forest industry residues. The case study results illustrate that acknowledging biomass market effects in the supply chain evaluation implies changes in both biomass prices and the allocation of biomass across sectors. The proposed framework should facilitate the identification of biorefinery concepts with a high economic performance which are robust to feedstock price changes caused by the increase in biomass demand.

This paper presents an economic assessment of two different policies – both implying an increased demand for forest ecosystem services – and how these could affect the competition for forest raw materials. A forest sector trade model is updated to a new base year (2016), and then employed to analyze the consequences of a more intense use of bioenergy and increased forest conservation in Sweden. These scenarios are assessed individually and in combination. A particularly interesting market impact is that bioenergy promotion and forest conservation tend to have opposite effects on forest industry by-product prices. Moreover, combining the two policies mitigates the forest industry by-product price increase compared to the case where only the bioenergy-promoting policy is implemented. Namely, the energy using sector (heat and power) is less negatively affected in terms of increased feedstock prices if bioenergy demand targets are accompanied by increased forest conservation. This effect is due to increasing pulpwood prices, which reduces pulp, paper and board production, and in turn mitigates the competition for the associated by-products. Overall, the paper illustrates the complexity of the forest raw material market, and the importance of considering demand and supply responses within and between sectors in energy and forest policy decision-making.