Angelica GIANFREDA

Prof. Dr. Angelica GIANFREDA

orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

18Years (2009-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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1 November 2012 in Energy Economics
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
Angelica GIANFREDAAngelica GIANFREDA
Angelica GIANFREDA
Luigi GrossiLuigi Grossi
Luigi Grossi

1 March 2010 in Energy Economics
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
DBDerek W. Bunn
Derek W. Bunn
Angelica GIANFREDAAngelica GIANFREDA
Angelica GIANFREDA

7 April 2022 in International Journal of Forecasting
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
Anna Gloria BillèAnna Gloria Billè
Anna Gloria Billè
Angelica GIANFREDAAngelica GIANFREDA
Angelica GIANFREDA
FGFilippo Del Grosso
Filippo Del Grosso
Francesco RavazzoloFrancesco Ravazzolo
Francesco Ravazzolo

1 July 2020 in International Journal of Forecasting
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
Angelica GIANFREDAAngelica GIANFREDA
Angelica GIANFREDA
Francesco RavazzoloFrancesco Ravazzolo
Francesco Ravazzolo
LRLuca Rossini
Luca Rossini

1 October 2018 in Operations Research
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
Angelica GIANFREDAAngelica GIANFREDA
Angelica GIANFREDA
DBDerek Bunn
Derek Bunn
The wide range of models needed to support the various short-term operations for electricity generation demonstrates the importance of accurate specifications for the uncertainty in market prices. This is becoming increasingly challenging, since hourly price densities for electricity exhibit a variety of shapes, with their characteristic features changing substantially within the day and evolving over time. Furthermore, the influx of renewable power, wind, and solar, in particular, has made these density shapes very weather dependent. We develop a general four-parameter stochastic model for hourly prices, in which the four moments of the density function are dynamically estimated as latent state variables and, furthermore, modelled as functions of several plausible exogenous drivers. This provides a transparent and credible model that is sufficiently flexible to capture the shape-shifting effects, particularly with respect to the wind and solar output variations causing dynamic switches in the upside and downside risks. Extensive testing on German wholesale price data, benchmarked against quantile regression and other models in out-of-sample backtesting, validated the approach and its analytical appeal. The e-companion is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2018.1733 .

1 June 2016 in The Energy Journal
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
Angelica GIANFREDAAngelica GIANFREDA
Angelica GIANFREDA
LPLucia Parisio
Lucia Parisio
Matteo Maria PelagattiMatteo Maria Pelagatti
Matteo Maria Pelagatti
Energy association dealing with policy and economics of oil, natural gas,electricity restructuring, transportation, exploration, energy conferences, environmental, alternative fuels, and OPEC studies