Background: In the aftermath of the sub-prime crisis, systemic risk has become a greater priority for regulators, with the National Treasury (2011) stating that regulators should proactively monitor changes in systemic risk.Aim: The aim is to quantify systemic risk as the capital shortfall an institution is likely to experience, conditional to the entire financial sector being undercapitalised.Setting: We measure the systemic risk index (SRISK) of the South African (SA) banking sector between 2001 and 2013.Methods: Systemic risk is measured with the SRISK.Results: Although the results indicated only moderate systemic risk in the SA financial sector over this period, there were significant spikes in the levels of systemic risk during periods of financial turmoil in other countries. Especially the stock market crash in 2002 and the subprime crisis in 2008. Based on our results, the largest contributor to systemic risk during quiet periods was Investec, the bank in our sample which had the lowest market capitalisation. However, during periods of financial turmoil, the contributions of other larger banks increased markedly.Conclusion: The implication of these spikes is that systemic risk levels may also be highly dependent on external economic factors, in addition to internal banking characteristics. The results indicate that the economic fundamentals of SA itself seem to have little effect on the amount of systemic risk present in the financial sector. A more significant relationship seems to exist with the stability of the financial sectors in foreign countries. The implication therefore is that complying with individual banking regulations, such as Basel, and corporate governance regulations promoting ethical behaviour, such as King III, may not be adequate. It is therefore proposed that banks should always have sufficient capital reserves in order to mitigate the effects of a financial crisis in a foreign country. The use of worst-case scenario analyses (such as those in this study) could aid in determining exactly how much capital banks could need in order to be considered sufficiently capitalised during a financial crisis, and therefore safe from systemic risk.
Orientation: The idea of collaborative consumption is developing among consumers, where underutilised or excess resources, skills and money are shared among peers for compensation. Collaborative consumption involves sharing, and as such, Uber, an app-based transport service enables those with spare vehicle capacity to provide a fee-based transport solution.Research purpose: This study investigates the intention to use this service in a South African context, specifically through the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) because of the suitability of these models in this context. Differences between regular and seldom users are also examined.Motivation for the study: With the widespread use of Uber in South Africa, understanding the factors contributing to the intention to use Uber requires examination.Research design, approach and method: Data were collected using a quantitative survey among panel respondents of South Africans, using electronic data collection. The research instrument comprised pre-existing items measured on a 6-point Likert scale. A total of 367 usable responses were received. Data analysis included testing for differences in means (t-test, Satterthwaite-Welch t-test, Anova F-test, Welch F-test) as well as regression analysis (by means of multiple regressions and two-stage least squares).Main findings: The findings indicate that South Africans intend to use the service largely due to their positive attitude towards the service, the perceived usefulness (PU) of the app and perceived behavioural (PB) control associated with the service. The value of the app has been highlighted in this research, and the importance of its functioning is evident.Practical/managerial implications: The importance of providing a positive service experience impacts the intention to use the service in the future. This emphasises the importance of the service itself and the functioning of the app.Contribution/value-add: Understanding the intention to use this service enables further development of this app and associated services.
23 December 2023 in Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences
Orientation: Agricultural plays a key role in South Africa’s economy, but its exports are constrained by inadequate transport infrastructure, logistical bottlenecks and high production costs. Therefore, most agricultural products are transported to ports by road instead of the more economical rail. Product prices fluctuate with erratic domestic and international supply and demand, which affects competitiveness. Research purpose: The study investigates how transport cost and logistical shortcomings have impacted South African maize exports and competitiveness. Motivation for the study: Little prior research focused on the impact of transport and logistics on the competitiveness of agricultural exports in Africa. Maize, one of South Africa’s leading agricultural products with still-to-be-tapped export potential, was used as an example. Research approach/design and method: Trends in global maize exports and logistics performance are described, as well as South Africa’s share and rankings. Domestic trends in rail and road transport are investigated together with historic costs. Regression analysis investigates determinants of South African maize export volumes. Main findings: South Africa’s logistics-related competitiveness is declining. Rising domestic transport cost has a statistically significant negative effect on maize export volumes while international prices show the expected positive effect. Separate equations for exports through harbours and border posts rendered different results. Practical/managerial implications: Valuable insights are provided into the critical role of logistics efficiency in maize export competitiveness. Contribution/value-add: Empirical findings provide a starting point for more in-depth studies in this area and more informed policy discussions on how the competitiveness of South Africa’s agricultural exports can be enhanced.
1 January 2020 in International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies
Historically, research focusing on the money demand function developing economies (especially Eastern European transition economies) was a difficult undertaking because of under-developed financial systems and the unavailability of data. This study aims to assist in filling this gap in the literature by employing three different estimation techniques to estimate the M1 and M2 money demand functions for Hungary. The study uses quarterly data for an 18-year period, obtained from the IMF’s International Financial Statistics database. The results based on the bounds testing procedure as well as the other two approaches confirm that a stable, long-run relationship exists between the demand for money and its determinants. The results’ robustness is enhanced by the similarities between the results of the various approaches used in the study. The money demand function can therefore theoretically serve as a tool to measure the effect of monetary policy decisions and in determining what parameters of the money demand function to adjust in order to yield the required effects. It is suggested that, in the case of Hungary the M1 money demand function might be the most appropriate model on which monetary policy decisions should be based.
16 November 2020 in SA Journal of Human Resource Management
Orientation: Mainstream development theory views the informal sector as a shock absorber in an economic crisis. South Africa’s informal sector is smaller than that of many developing countries and very little research has investigated underemployment in marginal informal economic activities.Purpose: This study investigated the prevalence of skills-related underemployment as well as the possible determinants and impact thereof on the income and poverty of car guards, day labourers and waste pickers in Potchefstroom.Motivation: There is a need to expand the debate on skills-related underemployment to the informal sector in order to improve our understanding of the shock absorber role of the informal sector and the implications of underemployment for the labour market.Research design and method: A cross-sectional survey design yielded the data for the analysis. Ordinary least square and probit analysis were used as the statistical methods of analyses to answer the three research questions.Main findings: Almost half (48%) of all the respondents experience skills-related underemployment (vocational over-skilling). Age and gender (for car guards), previous formal employment and day labour experience (day labourers) increase the likelihood of skills-related unemployment.Practical implications: The findings question the shock absorber role of informal employment and self-employment in South Africa in times of economic crisis. Alternative theoretical approaches deserve consideration.Contribution/value added: The prevalence of skills-related underemployment in the informal sector points towards the inefficient allocation of labour resources in South Africa. The study paves the way for studies with a broader geographical scope and qualitative focus.