The surface water resources of the West Kazakhstan Region (WKR) face escalating vulnerability due to the synergistic effects of a sharply continental climate, which intensifies climate change impacts, and rapidly increasing anthropogenic water demand. This study aims to quantify and project the future water stress on WKR’s surface waters, assessing the combined influence of climate change and socio-economic development over the critical period of 2030–2050. This study presents a comprehensive quantitative assessment and future projection of water stress on the region’s surface waters, integrating state-of-the-art CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) with a novel model of water consumption growth accounting for regional demographic and economic developments. Employing advanced bias-corrected ensemble climate projections alongside physically interpretable water balance models, we estimate changes in river flows and lake volumes through mid-century. A newly developed Water Stress Index (WSI), supplemented by the Falkenmark Index, reveals an alarming increase in water stress, with projections indicating that over 70% of the WKR territory may face severe resource limitations by 2050. The analysis underscores significant spatial heterogeneity driven by climatic variability and socio-economic factors, emphasizing the urgent need for regionally tailored adaptation and water management strategies. These findings provide a robust scientific basis to guide policy decisions aimed at mitigating future water scarcity under evolving climate and development scenarios.

The article examines the effectiveness of GIS-technologies in Kazakhstan for determining and clarifying hydrographic characteristics (e.g. catchment area, river length, location, lakes and reservoirs), the analysis of hydrological processes and phenomena, as well as the creation of a cartographic and attributive database of water bodies. Yesil River, the main waterway of the central and northern part of Kazakhstan, is one of the least hydro- logically studied catchments in the region. To address this research and information gap data was obtained from remote sensing and runoff depth based on the Kazhydromet network for the period 1945 to 2016. A topographic and river network map (1:1,000,000) of the Yesil River basin, including locations of gauging stations as well as depth and runoff coefficient maps were created using ArcGIS software. These maps provide a very useful tool for water resource management and economic policy decision making.

This paper discusses assessment of the water sources of Western Kazakhstan. It is one of the territories with the lowest water supply in the country, consisting of Aktobe, Atyrau, West Kazakhstan, and Mangystau regions. The distribution of water resources was assessed by administrative units. When assessing renewable water resources of rivers and streams by administrative units, it is necessary to identify a local runoff, inflow from adjacent administrative units, outflow from the assessed administrative unit, as well as the total resources of administrative units. Currently, small-scale maps, satellite and geoinformational images are used for a more accurate identification of the number of water bodies in the region and the lake percentage in certain areas. The impact of anthropogenic activities significantly distorts natural water reserves, the anthropogenic load on river runoff and lake resources has been assessed. A number of maps were built, namely, specific water supply of the population and territory with total resources; lake percentage; load on total resources; and an indicator of water stress of total resources by administrative units. Thus, surface water resources of Western Kazakhstan are fresh water reserves contained in such water bodies as rivers, lakes and reservoirs, amounting to 14600 million m3.

Water resources are critically important for the maintenance of life on Earth and various aspects of human activity. Sustainable management and protection of water resources are priorities for environmental conservation and sustainable development. Assessing the prospects for the use of water resources in economically developed regions is a rather complex complex task associated with both scenarios for the development of water-consuming sectors of the economy and the need to take into account changes occurring in the hydrological and climatic system. Such changes affect the conditions of runoff formation and can lead to a significant transformation of the water regime, this problem is especially significant for basins with low availability of water resources. In this scientific study, firstly, an algorithm for assessing surface waters by administrative districts is proposed, which is necessary to solve sectoral problems; secondly, a methodological approach is proposed for assessing the water supply of a territory with surface waters, taking into account a set of criteria necessary for assessing the water supply of administrative territories with surface waters

The article considers the possibility of using the results of joint modeling of runoff and runoff- forming factors to assess and forecast the water resources in the Arys River basin. To solve this problem, the canonical decomposition method was used, which allows us to characterize a random process (river runoff) by a set of independent random variables and non–random functions. The method is optimal in the class of linear transformations, decomposition was carried out according to natural orthogonal components. Monthly, annual and vegetative hydrograph of the Arys River runoff were predicted for 2030, 2040 and 2050, according to two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results of the study showed that changes in river runoff by 2030, 2040, and 2050 fluctuate around the climatic norm of 1974–2019, both downwards and upwards. The use of the canonical decomposition model based on the dependence of runoff on climatic characteristics is fully justified by the results obtained.