Vibrio parahaemolyticus is a prevalent pathogen responsible for foodborne diseases in coastal regions. Understanding its dynamic relationship with various meteorological and marine factors is crucial for predicting outbreaks of bacterial foodborne illnesses. This study analyzes the occurrence of V. parahaemolyticus-induced foodborne illness in Zhejiang Province, China, from 2014 to 2018, using an 8-day time unit based on the temporal characteristics of marine products. The detection rate of V. parahaemolyticus exhibited a distinct cyclical pattern, peaking during the summer months. Meteorological and marine factors showed varying lag effects on the detection of V. parahaemolyticus, with specific lag periods as follows: sunshine duration (3 weeks), air temperature (3 weeks), total precipitation (8 weeks), relative humidity (7 weeks), sea surface temperature (1 week), and sea surface salinity (8 weeks). The SARIMAX model, which incorporates both marine and climatic factors, was developed to facilitate short-term forecasts of V. parahaemolyticus detection rates in coastal cities. The model’s performance was evaluated, and the actual values consistently fell within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted values, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.047, indicating high accuracy. This framework provides both theoretical and practical insights for predicting and preventing future foodborne disease outbreaks. These findings can support food industry stakeholders—such as seafood suppliers, restaurants, regulatory agencies, and healthcare institutions—in anticipating high-risk periods and implementing targeted measures. These include enhancing cold chain management, conducting timely seafood inspections, strengthening cross-contamination controls during seafood processing, dynamically adjusting market surveillance intensity, and improving hygiene practices. In addition, hospitals and local health departments can use the model’s forecasts to allocate medical resources such as beds, medications, and staff in advance to better prepare for seasonal surges in foodborne illness.

Bacterial foodborne diseases caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus pose persistent challenges to coastal cities in China. In this study, we employed multiple logistic regression analysis and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) to investigate the epidemiological characteristics and associated risk factors of vibriosis in the metropolitan area of Hangzhou from 2014 to 2018. Analysis of foodborne cases indicated that certain demographics and occupational factors, including age between 16 and 44 years; houseworkers or unemployed individuals; preference for aquatic and meat products; and dining in collective canteens or catering services contribute to an increased likelihood of V. parahaemolyticus infection. Moreover, a higher per capita GDP and exposure to high temperatures were identified as risk factors for vibriosis. This study highlights the significance of the daily mean temperature as a meteorological factor influencing V. parahaemolyticus infection, with varying lag effects observed depending on temperature conditions. At low temperatures, the risk of infection occurs after a lag of 21 days, whereas at high temperatures, the risk is highest on the same day, while the second infection risk period occurs after a lag of 21 days. These findings provide a spatiotemporal perspective of the risk analysis of foodborne diseases, with a daily timescale and street spatial scale, which contributes to the development of public health strategies and food safety protocols in coastal cities.