The education sector has been quick to recognize the power of predictive analytics to enhance student success rates. However, there are challenges to widespread adoption, including the lack of accessibility and the potential perpetuation of inequalities. These challenges present in different stages of modeling, including data preparation, model development, and evaluation. These steps can introduce additional bias to the system if not appropriately performed. Substantial incompleteness in responses is a common problem in nationally representative education data at a large scale. This can lead to missing data and can potentially impact the representativeness and accuracy of the results. While many education-related studies address the challenges of missing data, little is known about the impact of handling missing values on the fairness of predictive outcomes in practice. In this paper, we aim to assess the disparities in predictive modeling outcomes for college student success and investigate the impact of imputation techniques on model performance and fairness using various notions. We conduct a prospective evaluation to provide a less biased estimation of future performance and fairness than an evaluation of historical data. Our comprehensive analysis of a real large-scale education dataset reveals key insights on modeling disparities and the impact of imputation techniques on the fairness of the predictive outcome under different testing scenarios. Our results indicate that imputation introduces bias if the testing set follows the historical distribution. However, if the injustice in society is addressed and, consequently, the upcoming batch of observations is equalized, the model would be less biased.

Predictive analytics has been widely used in various domains, including education, to inform decision-making and improve outcomes. However, many predictive models are proprietary and inaccessible for evaluation or modification by researchers and practitioners, limiting their accountability and ethical design. Moreover, predictive models are often opaque and incomprehensible to the officials who use them, reducing their trust and utility. Furthermore, predictive models may introduce or exacerbate bias and inequity, as they have done in many sectors of society. Therefore, there is a need for transparent, interpretable, and fair predictive models that can be easily adopted and adapted by different stakeholders. In this paper, we propose a fair predictive model based on multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) that incorporates fairness measures in the learning process. MARS is a non-parametric regression model that performs feature selection, handles non-linear relationships, generates interpretable decision rules, and derives optimal splitting criteria on the variables. Specifically, we integrate fairness into the knot optimization algorithm and provide theoretical and empirical evidence of how it results in a fair knot placement. We apply our fairMARS model to real-world data and demonstrate its effectiveness in terms of accuracy and equity. Our paper contributes to the advancement of responsible and ethical predictive analytics for social good.