Remotely monitoring changes in central U.S. grasslands is challenging because these landscapes tend to respond quickly to disturbances and changes in weather. Such dynamic responses influence nutrient cycling, greenhouse gas contributions, habitat availability for wildlife, and other ecosystem processes and services. Traditionally, coarse-resolution satellite data acquired at daily intervals have been used for monitoring. Recently, the harmonized Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 (HLS) data increased the temporal frequency of the data. Here we investigated if the increased data frequency provided adequate observations to characterize highly dynamic grassland processes. We evaluated HLS data available for 2016 to (1) determine if data from Sentinel-2 contributed to an improvement in characterizing landscape processes over Landsat-8 data alone, and (2) quantify how observation frequency impacted results. Specifically, we investigated into estimating annual vegetation phenology, detecting burn scars from fire, and modeling within-season wetland hydroperiod and growth of aquatic vegetation. We observed increased sensitivity to the start of the growing season (SOST) with the HLS data. Our estimates of the grassland SOST compared well with ground estimates collected at a phenological camera site. We used the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm to assess if the HLS data improved our detection of burn scars following grassland fires and found that detection was considerably influenced by the seasonal timing of the fires. The grassland burned in early spring recovered too quickly to be detected as change events by CCDC; instead, the spectral characteristics following these fires were incorporated as part of the ongoing time-series models. In contrast, the spectral effects from late-season fires were detected both by Landsat-8 data and HLS data. For wetland-rich areas, we used a modified version of the CCDC algorithm to track within-season dynamics of water and aquatic vegetation. The addition of Sentinel-2 data provided the potential to build full time series models to better distinguish different wetland types, suggesting that the temporal density of data was sufficient for within-season characterization of wetland dynamics. Although the different data frequency, in both the spatial and temporal dimensions, could cause inconsistent model estimation or sensitivity sometimes; overall, the temporal frequency of the HLS data improved our ability to track within-season grassland dynamics and improved results for areas prone to cloud contamination. The results suggest a greater frequency of observations, such as from harmonizing data across all comparable Landsat and Sentinel sensors, is still needed. For our study areas, at least a 3-day revisit interval during the early growing season (weeks 14–17) is required to provide a >50% probability of obtaining weekly clear observations.

Grand Forks County, North Dakota, boasts the highest concentration of shelterbelts in the World. As trees age and reach their lifespan limits, renovations should have taken place with new trees being planted. However, in recent years, the rate of tree removal is thought to exceed the rate of replanting, which can result in a net loss of shelterbelts. Through manual digitization and geographic object-based image analysis (GEOBIA), we mapped shelterbelt densities in the Grand Forks County using historical and contemporary aerial photography, and estimated actual changes in density over 54 years. Our results showed a doubling in shelterbelt densities from 1962 to 2014, with an increase of 6402 m²/km² over the 52 years (or 123 m²/km²/year). From 2014 to 2016, we measured 1,040,178 m² of shelterbelt areas removed from the county, creating a density loss of −157 m²/km²/year. The total change over two years was relatively small compared with that seen over the previous 52 years. However, the fact that the rate of shelterbelt planting has slowed, and more removal is occurring, should be of concern for an increased risk of wind erosion, similar to that experienced in Midwestern U.S. during the 1930s. The reduction of shelterbelt density is likely related to changes in farming practices and a decline in the Conservation Reserve Program, resulting from the increased returns of growing other row crops. To encourage shelterbelt planting as a conservation practice, additional guidelines and financial support should be considered to balance the tradeoff between soil erosion and agricultural intensification.

Studies have shown that the agricultural expansion and land use changes in the Midwest of the U.S. are major drivers for increased nonpoint source pollution throughout the regional river systems. In this study, we empirically examined the relationship of planted area and production of three dominant crops with nitrate flux in the Republican River, Kansas, a sub-watershed of Mississippi River Basin. Our results show that land use in the region could not explain the observed changes in nitrate flux in the river. Instead, after including explanatory variables such as precipitation, growing degree days, and well water irrigation in the regression model we found that irrigation and spring precipitation could explain >85% of the variability in nitrate flux from 2000 to 2014. This suggests that changes in crop acreage and production alone cannot explain variability in nitrate flux. Future agricultural policy for the region should focus on controlling both the timing and amount of fertilizer applied to the field to reduce the potential leaching of excess fertilizer through spring time runoff and/or over-irrigation into nearby river systems.

Vegetation phenology models still rely on temperature as the primary limiting factor to growth. They generally do not recognize the importance of photoperiod and water availability, which can cause them to under-perform. Moreover, few models have used machine learning algorithms to find relationships in the data. In this paper, four Vegetation Indexes (VIs), namely the green chromatic coordinate (GCC), the vegetation contrast index (VCI), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2), are predicted for the North American Great Plains. This is possible by using six PhenoCams, Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries (DAYMET), processing them with the machine learning algorithm XGBoost (XGB) and comparing them with seven phenophase stages throughout a growth cycle. Examining the results, GCC was the best fitting model with an R² of 0.946, while EVI2 was the poorest with an R² of 0.895. Also, the results indicate that changing temperature and precipitation patterns are driving a significant change in phenology of the grasslands. We developed a model capable of explaining 90 to 93% of the variability in four VIs across six grassland PhenoCam sites over the growing season using the XGB regression. Our model demonstrates the importance of including photoperiod, temperature, and precipitation information when modeling vegetation phenology. Finally, we were able to construct a 38-year phenology record at each PhenoCam location.