Human security is threatened by terrorism in the 21st century. A rapidly growing field of study aims to understand terrorist attack patterns for counter-terrorism policies. Existing research aimed at predicting terrorism from a single perspective, typically employing only background contextual information or past attacks of terrorist groups, has reached its limits. Here, we propose an integrated deep-learning framework that incorporates the background context of past attacked locations, social networks, and past actions of individual terrorist groups to discover the behavior patterns of terrorist groups. The results show that our framework outperforms the conventional base model at different spatio-temporal resolutions. Further, our model can project future targets of active terrorist groups to identify high-risk areas and offer other attack-related information in sequence for a specific terrorist group. Our findings highlight that the combination of a deep-learning approach and multi-scalar data can provide groundbreaking insights into terrorism and other organized violent crimes.

Inter-state cyberattacks are increasingly becoming a major hidden threat to national security and global order. However, current prediction models are often constrained by single-source data due to insufficient consideration of complex influencing factors, resulting in limitations in understanding and predicting cyberattacks. To address this issue, we comprehensively consider multiple data sources including cyberattacks, bilateral interactions, armed conflicts, international trade, and national attributes, and propose an interpretable multimodal data fusion framework for predicting cyberattacks among countries. On one hand, we design a dynamic multi-view graph neural network model incorporating temporal interaction attention and multi-view attention, which effectively captures time-varying dynamic features and the importance of node representations from various modalities. Our proposed model exhibits greater performance in comparison to many cutting-edge models, achieving an F1 score of 0.838. On the other hand, our interpretability analysis reveals unique characteristics of national cyberattack behavior. For example, countries with different income levels show varying preferences for data sources, reflecting their different strategic focuses in cyberspace. This unveils the factors and regional differences that affect cyberattack prediction, enhancing the transparency and credibility of the proposed model.

Armed conflict is a dynamic social phenomenon, yet existing research often overlooks its evolving nature. We propose a method to simulate the dynamic transformations of armed conflicts. First, we enhanced the Spatial Conflict Dynamic Indicator (SCDi) by integrating conflict intensity and clustering, which allowed for the distinction of various conflict types. Second, we established transformation rules for the SCDi, quantifying five types of transformations: outbreak, stabilization, escalation, de-escalation, and maintaining peace. Using the random forest algorithm with multiple covariates, we simulated these transformations and analyzed the driving factors. The results reveal a global trend of polarization in armed conflicts over the past 20 years, with an increase in clustered/high-intensity (CH) and dispersed/low-intensity (DL) conflicts. Stable regions of ongoing conflict have emerged, notably in areas like Syria, the border of Afghanistan, and Nepal’s border region. New conflicts are more likely to arise near these zones. Various driving forces shape conflict transformations, with neighboring conflict scenarios acting as key catalysts. The capacity of a region to maintain peace largely depends on neighboring conflict dynamics, while local factors are more influential in other types of transformations. This study quantifies the dynamic process of conflict transformations and reveals detailed changes.

The demand for energy plants is foreseen to grow as worldwide energy and climate policies promote the use of bioenergy for climate change mitigation. To avoid competing with food production, it’s critical to assess future changes in marginal land availability for energy plant development. Using a machine learning method, boosted regression tree, this study modeled potential marginal land resources suitable for cassava under current and different climate change scenarios, based on cassava occurrence records and environmental covariates. The findings revealed that, currently, over 80% of the 1357.24 Mha of available marginal land for cassava cultivation is distributed in Africa and South America. Under three climate change scenarios, by 2030, worldwide suitable marginal land resources were predicted to grow by 39.71Mha, 66.21 Mha, and 39.31Mha for the RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively; by 2050, the potential marginal land suitable for cassava will increase by 38.98Mha, 83.02 Mha, and 55.43Mha, respectively; by 2080, the global marginal land resources were estimated to rise by 40.82 Mha, 99.74 Mha, and 21.87 Mha from now, respectively. Our results highlight the impacts of climate change on potential marginal land resources of cassava across worldwide, which provide the basis for assessing bioenergy potential in the future.