Exploring the law and evolution mechanism of coupling and coordination between agricultural carbon emission efficiency (ACE) and agricultural economic growth (AEG) can provide a reference basis for agricultural low-carbon transformation. This study takes 11 cities in Jiangxi Province as the research object; measures the level of ACE based on the panel data from 2008 to 2022; and analyzes the development and influencing factors of the coupling and coordination between ACE and AEG by using the coupling coordination degree model, the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method, and the Tobit regression model. The results reveal the following: (1) The overall ACE in Jiangxi Province displays a significant upward trend, with the average efficiency value increasing from 0.172 to 0.624, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 72.43%. Nonetheless, there remains clear regional heterogeneity, characterized by lower efficiencies in Central and Southern Jiangxi compared to the higher efficiencies found in Northern and Western Jiangxi. (2) Despite gradual improvements in regional coordination, the Central and Southern Jiangxi regions still lag Northern and Western Jiangxi in terms of the linked coordination between ACE and AEG, symptoms of which had been previously misaligned. (3) The results of Dagum’s Gini coefficient decomposition show that inter-regional disparities are the main source of overall disparities, with a contribution of 37.43%, which is higher than the synergistic effect of intra-regional disparities and hyper-variable densities, corroborating the core contradiction of uneven development across regions. (4) The Tobit model reveals that government investment, industrial structure optimization, urbanization, and educational attainment exert a significant positive influence on promoting coupling coordination. To establish a scientific basis for achieving a low-carbon agricultural transformation and equitable AEG in Jiangxi Province, this research recommends bolstering regional cooperation, fostering innovations in agricultural science and technology, optimizing the industrial structure, and enhancing farmers’ awareness of low-carbon practices. This study expands the theoretical system of agricultural low-carbon transition in terms of research methods and scales to provide a scientific basis for agricultural provinces to realize agricultural low-carbon transition and balanced economic development.

Introduction: The ongoing rise in global temperatures poses profound challenges to both natural ecosystems and human societal development. In this context, understanding the strategies employed by farming households to cope with climate shocks has become essential for sustaining agricultural production and ensuring the long-term viability of their livelihoods. Methods: Using household-level data from the National Fixed Observation Points, combined with publicly available climate data, this study employs a two-way fixed effects model to examine the effects of short-term climate shocks and long-term climate trends on labor allocation decisions among grain-producing farmers. Results: The results indicate that: (1) Both short-term climate shocks and long-term climate trends reduce labor input in agricultural production while increasing labor allocation to off-farm activities. For instance, a 1% increase in short-term climate shocks leads to a 0.6% decrease in agricultural labor engagement and a 1.5% increase in non-agricultural labor participation. (2) Investments in basic farmland construction and agricultural insurance mitigate the negative effect of long-term climate change on agricultural labor input, while reinforcing its positive effect on off-farm labor allocation. (3) The impacts of climate change on labor allocation are heterogeneous across gender, income, and farm scale, reflecting underlying disparities in climate vulnerability. Discussion: These findings underscore the need to develop climate adaptation strategies that account for household-level resource endowments. Policy measures should emphasize the role of farmland infrastructure and agricultural insurance in enhancing the resilience of grain production and stabilizing rural incomes, while also addressing differential adaptive capacities among diverse farmer groups.