To address the limitations of a traditional Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer, including its bulky size, high cost, and unsuitability for on-site industrial detection, this study developed a Fourier-transform near-infrared (FT-NIR) absorption testing system utilizing Micro-Electro-Mechanical System (MEMS) technology for detecting trace water content in ethylene glycol. The modeling performances of three algorithms including Support Vector Machine Regression (SVMR), Principal Component Regression (PCR), and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) were systematically evaluated, with PLSR identified as the optimal algorithm. To enhance predictive accuracy of water trace, spectral data were preprocessed using smoothing combined with first-derivative processing, and optimal selection of absorption wavelength feature was performed using interval Partial Least Squares (iPLS). Cross-batch external validation demonstrated a Limit of Detection (LOD) of 0.026% with 95% confidence which satisfies the rapid screening requirements for water exceedances (>0.1%) in industrial applications. These findings provide a robust technical foundation for developing handheld, in situ water detection devices.