In the tropics, thermal stratification (during warm conditions) may contribute to a shallowing of the mixed layer above the nutricline and a reduction in the transfer of nutrients to the surface lit-layer, ultimately limiting phytoplankton growth. Using remotely sensed observations and modelled datasets, we study such linkages in the northern Red Sea (NRS) - a typical tropical marine ecosystem. We assess the interannual variability (1998–2015) of both phytoplankton biomass and phenological indices (timing of bloom initiation, duration and termination) in relation to regional warming. We demonstrate that warmer conditions in the NRS are associated with substantially weaker winter phytoplankton blooms, which initiate later, terminate earlier and are shorter in their overall duration (~ 4 weeks). These alterations are directly linked with the strength of atmospheric forcing (air-sea heat fluxes) and vertical stratification (mixed layer depth [MLD]). The interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be a good indicator of phytoplankton abundance, but appears to be less important for predicting bloom timing. These findings suggest that future climate warming scenarios may have a two-fold impact on phytoplankton growth in tropical marine ecosystems: 1) a reduction in phytoplankton abundance and 2) alterations in the timing of seasonal phytoplankton blooms.

Data collected from different platforms in the Cretan Sea during the 2000s decade present evidence of gradually increasing salinity in the intermediate and deep intermediate layers after the middle of the decade. The observed gradual salt transport toward the deeper layers indicates contributions of dense water masses formed in various Aegean Sea subbasins. The accumulation of these saline and dense water masses in the Cretan Sea finally led to outflow from both Cretan Straits, with density greater than typical Levantine/Cretan Intermediate water but not dense enough to penetrate into the deep layers of the Eastern Mediterranean. We name this outflowing water mass as dense Cretan Intermediate Water (dCIW). A retrospective analysis of in situ data and literature references during the last four decades shows that similar events have occurred in the past in two occasions: (a) in the 1970s and (b) during the Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) onset (1987–1991). We argue that these salinity‐driven Aegean outflows are mostly attributed to recurrent changes of the Eastern Mediterranean upper thermohaline circulation that create favorable dense water formation conditions in the Aegean Sea through salinity preconditioning. We identify these phenomena as “EMT‐like” events and argue that in these cases internal thermohaline mechanisms dominate over atmospheric forcing in dense water production. However, intense atmospheric forcing over an already salinity preconditioned basin is indispensable for creating massive deep water outflow from the Cretan Sea, such as the EMT event.

Knowledge on large-scale biological processes in the southern Red Sea is relatively limited, primarily due to the scarce in situ, and satellite-derived chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) datasets. During summer, adverse atmospheric conditions in the southern Red Sea (haze and clouds) have long severely limited the retrieval of satellite ocean colour observations. Recently, a new merged ocean colour product developed by the European Space Agency (ESA)—the Ocean Color Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI)—has substantially improved the southern Red Sea coverage of Chl-a, allowing the discovery of unexpected intense summer blooms. Here we provide the first detailed description of their spatiotemporal distribution and report the mechanisms regulating them. During summer, the monsoon-driven wind reversal modifies the circulation dynamics at the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, leading to a subsurface influx of colder, fresher, nutrient-rich water from the Indian Ocean. Using satellite observations, model simulation outputs, and in situ datasets, we track the pathway of this intrusion into the extensive shallow areas and coral reef complexes along the basin’s shores. We also provide statistical evidence that the subsurface intrusion plays a key role in the development of the southern Red Sea phytoplankton blooms.

Mesoscale eddies are a dominant feature of the Red Sea circulation, yet their three‐dimensional characteristics remain largely unexplored. This hinders our understanding of about eddy‐induced transport in the basin. This study analyzes 14‐year outputs from a high‐resolution eddy‐resolving model to investigate the three‐dimensional signature of the Red Sea eddies, their contribution to the air‐sea flux, and the eddy‐induced transport of heat and salt. Eddies are mostly active and energetic in the central and northern Red Sea. Their associated variability explains ∼8% of the total variance in the surface heat flux, and particularly, ∼39% in the salt flux. The asymmetric eddy structure and meridional gradient drive significant transport of heat and salt across the basin. A negative feedback mechanism is identified that relates the eddy intensity and the meridional steepness of the mixed layer depth in the basin.

Recent reports of warming trends in the Red Sea raise concerns about the response of the basin's fragile ecosystem under an increasingly warming climate. Using a variety of available Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data sets, we investigate the evolution of Red Sea SST in relation to natural climate variability. Analysis of long‐term SST data sets reveals a sequence of alternating positive and negative trends, with similar amplitudes and a periodicity of nearly 70 years associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. High warming rates reported recently appear to be a combined effect of global warming and a positive phase of natural SST oscillations. Over the next decades, the SST trend in the Red Sea purely related to global warming is expected to be counteracted by the cooling Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phase. Regardless of the current positive trends, projections incorporating long‐term natural oscillations suggest a possible decreasing effect on SST in the near future.