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Marcos Álvarez-Díaz
Department of Fundamental Economics, University of Vigo, 32004 Ourense, Spain

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Journal article
Published: 04 May 2021 in Sustainability
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Creative tourism is a novel segment of the tourism market that may turn into a great opportunity for small cities to attract visitors. Thus, it can be a possible economic and social driver for local development. Despite its potentiality, not much empirical research has been conducted to explore the specific strengths and weaknesses of developing creative tourism in small cities, probably due to the lack of reliable data. Our study aims to fill this gap by using the C3 Index, a composite indicator developed by the Joint Research Center-European Commission, as the data source, and the bootstrap method as a statistical tool to detect significant differences between small and large cities. Our findings reveal that the smallest cities show positive features to foster creative tourism (e.g., they have at least as good cultural infrastructures and cultural participation as the largest cities). However, in some other aspects, small cities still have room to improve (e.g., improvements in local and international connections or further development of the cultural and creative sector).

ACS Style

Mercedes Mareque; Elena De Prada Creo; Marcos Álvarez-Díaz. Exploring Creative Tourism Based on the Cultural and Creative Cities (C3) Index and Using Bootstrap Confidence Intervals. Sustainability 2021, 13, 5145 .

AMA Style

Mercedes Mareque, Elena De Prada Creo, Marcos Álvarez-Díaz. Exploring Creative Tourism Based on the Cultural and Creative Cities (C3) Index and Using Bootstrap Confidence Intervals. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (9):5145.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mercedes Mareque; Elena De Prada Creo; Marcos Álvarez-Díaz. 2021. "Exploring Creative Tourism Based on the Cultural and Creative Cities (C3) Index and Using Bootstrap Confidence Intervals." Sustainability 13, no. 9: 5145.

Original article
Published: 24 January 2021 in Growth and Change
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This paper studies the population growth dynamics in European NUTS3 regions over the period of 2000–2015 and offers generalizable evidence on the main drivers of population change at this sub‐level of analysis, which is so far rather unexplored. Results obtained by means of a spatial Durbin model highlight the roles of economic and demographic regional conditions in shaping population dynamics and the minor role of geography and environmental conditions. The fact that geographical polarization of population is occurring, which might result in an increase in regional imbalances, calls for policy actions in mitigating this phenomenon.

ACS Style

Marcos Álvarez‐Díaz; Béatrice D’Hombres; Lewis Dijkstra; Claudia Ghisetti; Nicola Pontarollo. Unveiling the local determinants of population growth in the European Union. Growth and Change 2021, 52, 150 -166.

AMA Style

Marcos Álvarez‐Díaz, Béatrice D’Hombres, Lewis Dijkstra, Claudia Ghisetti, Nicola Pontarollo. Unveiling the local determinants of population growth in the European Union. Growth and Change. 2021; 52 (1):150-166.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marcos Álvarez‐Díaz; Béatrice D’Hombres; Lewis Dijkstra; Claudia Ghisetti; Nicola Pontarollo. 2021. "Unveiling the local determinants of population growth in the European Union." Growth and Change 52, no. 1: 150-166.

Erratum
Published: 27 March 2020 in Tourism Management
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ACS Style

María Soledad Otero-Giráldez; Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Manuel González-Gómez. Corrigendum to “Estimating the long-run effects of socio-economic and meteorological factors on the domestic tourism demand for galicia (Spain)” [Tour. Manag. 33 (2012) 1301–1308]. Tourism Management 2020, 80, 104111 .

AMA Style

María Soledad Otero-Giráldez, Marcos Álvarez-Díaz, Manuel González-Gómez. Corrigendum to “Estimating the long-run effects of socio-economic and meteorological factors on the domestic tourism demand for galicia (Spain)” [Tour. Manag. 33 (2012) 1301–1308]. Tourism Management. 2020; 80 ():104111.

Chicago/Turabian Style

María Soledad Otero-Giráldez; Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Manuel González-Gómez. 2020. "Corrigendum to “Estimating the long-run effects of socio-economic and meteorological factors on the domestic tourism demand for galicia (Spain)” [Tour. Manag. 33 (2012) 1301–1308]." Tourism Management 80, no. : 104111.

Research article
Published: 09 January 2020 in International Journal of Tourism Research
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Domestic tourism represents a large share of the total tourism volume in Spain, but it is still an under‐researched topic. This study focuses on the determinants of domestic flows in Spain at provincial level. The prior assumption is that domestic tourism demand may be affected by specific local conditions that previous studies, mostly based on more aggregate data, would hardly capture. A gravity model and various spatial econometric models are estimated assuming alternative spatial weighting matrices. Results suggest that income and relative prices affect tourism demand in Spanish provinces as well as weather, natural amenities, infrastructures, and recreational activities.

ACS Style

Marcos Alvarez‐Diaz; Beatrice D'hombres; Claudia Ghisetti; Nicola Pontarollo. Analysing domestic tourism flows at the provincial level in Spain by using spatial gravity models. International Journal of Tourism Research 2020, 22, 403 -415.

AMA Style

Marcos Alvarez‐Diaz, Beatrice D'hombres, Claudia Ghisetti, Nicola Pontarollo. Analysing domestic tourism flows at the provincial level in Spain by using spatial gravity models. International Journal of Tourism Research. 2020; 22 (4):403-415.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marcos Alvarez‐Diaz; Beatrice D'hombres; Claudia Ghisetti; Nicola Pontarollo. 2020. "Analysing domestic tourism flows at the provincial level in Spain by using spatial gravity models." International Journal of Tourism Research 22, no. 4: 403-415.

Journal article
Published: 09 July 2019 in Journal of Air Transport Management
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It is widely argued that low-cost carriers (LCCs) lead to an increase in tourism demand. However, there is no conclusive evidence when the airport is located in a region with large diaspora and outbound tourism. To gain insight into the relationship between LCCs and international tourism demand, we analyse whether a causal relationship exists between the number of international LCC passengers at the Porto airport and international tourism demand in the Galicia-North Portugal Euroregion using a vector autoregressive model. We evaluate the dynamics of the impacts of the LCC international passengers on international inbound tourism demand in a tourism demand model framework. The main findings are that the number of LCC international passengers has a positive influence on the number of nights spent by international guests in hotels and similar establishments and that the calculated monthly average injection of money into the economy is between 3 and 4.1 million € for North Portugal and between 1.4 and 2 million € for Galicia (Spain).

ACS Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Manuel González-Gómez; María Soledad Otero-Giráldez. Low cost airlines and international tourism demand. The case of Porto's airport in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula. Journal of Air Transport Management 2019, 79, 101689 .

AMA Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz, Manuel González-Gómez, María Soledad Otero-Giráldez. Low cost airlines and international tourism demand. The case of Porto's airport in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula. Journal of Air Transport Management. 2019; 79 ():101689.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Manuel González-Gómez; María Soledad Otero-Giráldez. 2019. "Low cost airlines and international tourism demand. The case of Porto's airport in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula." Journal of Air Transport Management 79, no. : 101689.

Article
Published: 15 March 2019 in Empirical Economics
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Can we accurately predict the Brent oil price? If so, which forecasting method can provide the most accurate forecasts? To unravel these questions, we aim at predicting the weekly Brent oil price growth rate by using several forecasting methods that are based on different approaches. Basically, we assess and compare the out-of-sample performances of linear parametric models (the ARIMA, the ARFIMA and the autoregressive model), a nonlinear parametric model (the GARCH-in-Mean model) and different nonparametric data-driven methods (a nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural network, genetic programming and the nearest-neighbor method). The results obtained show that (1) all methods are capable of predicting accurately both the value and the directional change in the Brent oil price, (2) there are no significant forecasting differences among the methods and (3) the volatility of the series could be an important factor to enhance our predictive ability.

ACS Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz. Is it possible to accurately forecast the evolution of Brent crude oil prices? An answer based on parametric and nonparametric forecasting methods. Empirical Economics 2019, 59, 1285 -1305.

AMA Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz. Is it possible to accurately forecast the evolution of Brent crude oil prices? An answer based on parametric and nonparametric forecasting methods. Empirical Economics. 2019; 59 (3):1285-1305.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz. 2019. "Is it possible to accurately forecast the evolution of Brent crude oil prices? An answer based on parametric and nonparametric forecasting methods." Empirical Economics 59, no. 3: 1285-1305.

Journal article
Published: 13 September 2018 in Forecasting
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This study explores the forecasting ability of two powerful non-linear computational methods: artificial neural networks and genetic programming. We use as a case of study the monthly international tourism demand in Spain, approximated by the number of tourist arrivals and of overnight stays. The forecasting results reveal that non-linear methods achieve slightly better predictions than those obtained by a traditional forecasting technique, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) approach. This slight forecasting improvement was close to being statistically significant. Forecasters must judge whether the high cost of implementing these computational methods is worthwhile.

ACS Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Manuel González-Gómez; María Soledad Otero-Giráldez. Forecasting International Tourism Demand Using a Non-Linear Autoregressive Neural Network and Genetic Programming. Forecasting 2018, 1, 90 -106.

AMA Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz, Manuel González-Gómez, María Soledad Otero-Giráldez. Forecasting International Tourism Demand Using a Non-Linear Autoregressive Neural Network and Genetic Programming. Forecasting. 2018; 1 (1):90-106.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Manuel González-Gómez; María Soledad Otero-Giráldez. 2018. "Forecasting International Tourism Demand Using a Non-Linear Autoregressive Neural Network and Genetic Programming." Forecasting 1, no. 1: 90-106.

Journal article
Published: 05 September 2018 in Forest Policy and Economics
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The aim of this article is to shed light on the most important determinants of bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp (BEKP) exports from the northwest coastal regions of Spain (i.e., Galicia and Asturias). The current study overcomes the problems of spurious regressions and non-stationary time series through cointegration. The research involves both testing the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables and the estimation of an error correction model (ECM). The findings show that the Spanish BEKP exports from Galicia and Asturias are significantly affected by the economic conditions registered in Europe, and favoured by the inflationary processes of the main competing developing countries (Brazil, Chile, Uruguay). However, this competitive advantage has been offset through the fall of the external value of competing countries' currencies against the Euro. In addition, the results also indicate that new investments in plantation pulp and factories in competing developing countries reduce the competitiveness of the BEKP industry in north west Spain.

ACS Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Manuel González-Gómez; María Soledad Otero-Giráldez. Main determinants of export-oriented bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp (BEKP) demand from the north-western regions of Spain. Forest Policy and Economics 2018, 96, 112 -119.

AMA Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz, Manuel González-Gómez, María Soledad Otero-Giráldez. Main determinants of export-oriented bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp (BEKP) demand from the north-western regions of Spain. Forest Policy and Economics. 2018; 96 ():112-119.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Manuel González-Gómez; María Soledad Otero-Giráldez. 2018. "Main determinants of export-oriented bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp (BEKP) demand from the north-western regions of Spain." Forest Policy and Economics 96, no. : 112-119.

Research article
Published: 31 July 2018 in Tourism Economics
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As an industry, tourism tends to be extremely responsive and vulnerable to political instabilities. Recently, a political conflict occurred in Spain, a leader in international tourism. In October 2017, the regional parliament of Catalonia asserted its independence from Spain, engendering a negative impact on the tourism sector of Catalonia. The main goal of our study is to assess the economic impact of the Catalan separatist challenge on the region’s tourism sector during the last quarter of 2017. To this end, we conducted a counterfactual analysis, based on forecasts generated by a seasonal autoregressive moving average model and an artificial neural network. The forecasts allowed us to calculate the projected number of international and domestic tourist visitors that would have travelled to Catalonia, had the separatist challenge not occurred. According to our results, the Catalan tourist sector effectively forfeited close to €200 million in revenue from the international tourism market, and around €27 million in revenue from the domestic market. These amounts differ from the economic gains attained by the other Spanish Mediterranean regions that compete with Catalonia to attract tourists.

ACS Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Manuel González-Gómez; María Soledad Otero-Giráldez. Estimating the economic impact of a political conflict on tourism: The case of the Catalan separatist challenge. Tourism Economics 2018, 25, 34 -50.

AMA Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz, Manuel González-Gómez, María Soledad Otero-Giráldez. Estimating the economic impact of a political conflict on tourism: The case of the Catalan separatist challenge. Tourism Economics. 2018; 25 (1):34-50.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Manuel González-Gómez; María Soledad Otero-Giráldez. 2018. "Estimating the economic impact of a political conflict on tourism: The case of the Catalan separatist challenge." Tourism Economics 25, no. 1: 34-50.

Journal article
Published: 01 January 2018 in Panoeconomicus
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Political trust has been considered a necessary condition for good democratic and economic performance over time. The grave economic crisis that started in 2008, which is known as the Great Recession, has deteriorated the level of political trust in several countries. Some authors have shown that those countries with an increasing level of unemployment experienced a sharp decline in political trust. In particular, the political distrust in Spain has suffered a high increase since the Great Recession. This paper tests the procyclicality of political trust in Spain through the analysis and modeling of the relationship between political trust and business cycle in Spain over the period 1996-2015. The cross-correlation analysis, the Granger causality test, and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach coherently conclude the procyclicality of political trust in Spain. The unemployment rate shows a negative and statistically significant influence on political trust four quarters later.

ACS Style

Gonzalo Caballero; Marcos Alvarez-Diaz. The procyclicality of political trust in Spain. Panoeconomicus 2018, 65, 21 -36.

AMA Style

Gonzalo Caballero, Marcos Alvarez-Diaz. The procyclicality of political trust in Spain. Panoeconomicus. 2018; 65 (1):21-36.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gonzalo Caballero; Marcos Alvarez-Diaz. 2018. "The procyclicality of political trust in Spain." Panoeconomicus 65, no. 1: 21-36.

Journal article
Published: 22 February 2017 in Current Issues in Tourism
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Regional political climate has become an increasingly significant force influencing travel behaviour in many tourist destinations. This paper attempts to address impacts of regional political stability on Russian inbound tourism into Spain within a demand model framework and using a cointegration approach. The results show that visa openness as well as political instability and civil unrest in substitute destinations attract more Russian tourists boosting economic growth and reducing unemployment rates in Spain. On the contrary, international political confrontation result in disadvantage to Russian tourism demand to Spain.JRC.I.1-Modelling, Indicators and Impact Evaluatio

ACS Style

Marcos Alvarez-Diaz; Manuel González-Gómez; María Soledad Otero-Giráldez. Estimating the effects of regional political climate on Russian tourists to Spain. Current Issues in Tourism 2017, 22, 409 -414.

AMA Style

Marcos Alvarez-Diaz, Manuel González-Gómez, María Soledad Otero-Giráldez. Estimating the effects of regional political climate on Russian tourists to Spain. Current Issues in Tourism. 2017; 22 (4):409-414.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marcos Alvarez-Diaz; Manuel González-Gómez; María Soledad Otero-Giráldez. 2017. "Estimating the effects of regional political climate on Russian tourists to Spain." Current Issues in Tourism 22, no. 4: 409-414.

Journal article
Published: 01 January 2017 in Regional Statistics
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ACS Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Beatrice D'Hombres; Claudia Ghisetti. Modelling inter- and intra-regional tourism flows in Spain – a spatial econometric approach. Regional Statistics 2017, 7, 3 -34.

AMA Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz, Beatrice D'Hombres, Claudia Ghisetti. Modelling inter- and intra-regional tourism flows in Spain – a spatial econometric approach. Regional Statistics. 2017; 7 (2):3-34.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Beatrice D'Hombres; Claudia Ghisetti. 2017. "Modelling inter- and intra-regional tourism flows in Spain – a spatial econometric approach." Regional Statistics 7, no. 2: 3-34.

Book chapter
Published: 26 October 2016 in Studies in Political Economy
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The Spanish economy has historically relied heavily on oil as a source of energy, and this has led to a political and economic debate on the Spanish energy model. This is particularly evident in the twenty first century when efforts have been made by Spanish political decision-makers to contain such strong dependence and furthermore try to develop renewable energies in order to have a more diverse, sustainable and cleaner energy model. Therefore, the Spanish government introduced a bonus policy for installation and exploitation of photovoltaic solar energy, which produced a strong sectoral increase and gave rise to a cumulative installed power rating of 4651 MW up to 2014. However, the institutional framework and the incentive policies for the sector were unstable between 2007 and 2014, and led to a substantial change in bonus policies applied by the different governments to the sector. Therefore, while Royal Decree no. 661/2007 established a special scheme that actually managed to increase photovoltaic installations in Spain through a bonus system, later the passing of several decrees and rules led to an institutional change that resulted in a reduction and cancellation of such bonuses and to a downfall of the sector.

ACS Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Raquel Fernández González; Gonzalo Caballero. Institutional Change, Specific Investments and Photovoltaic Power Plants: The Empirical Effects of the Energy Policy of “Solar Farms” in Spain. Studies in Political Economy 2016, 327 -347.

AMA Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz, Raquel Fernández González, Gonzalo Caballero. Institutional Change, Specific Investments and Photovoltaic Power Plants: The Empirical Effects of the Energy Policy of “Solar Farms” in Spain. Studies in Political Economy. 2016; ():327-347.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Raquel Fernández González; Gonzalo Caballero. 2016. "Institutional Change, Specific Investments and Photovoltaic Power Plants: The Empirical Effects of the Energy Policy of “Solar Farms” in Spain." Studies in Political Economy , no. : 327-347.

Journal article
Published: 01 May 2016 in Cuadernos de Economía
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Marcos Alvarez-Diaz; Manuel González-Gómez; María Soledad Otero-Giráldez. La modelización de la demanda de turismo de economías emergentes: el caso de la llegada de turistas rusos a España. Cuadernos de Economía 2016, 39, 112 -125.

AMA Style

Marcos Alvarez-Diaz, Manuel González-Gómez, María Soledad Otero-Giráldez. La modelización de la demanda de turismo de economías emergentes: el caso de la llegada de turistas rusos a España. Cuadernos de Economía. 2016; 39 (110):112-125.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marcos Alvarez-Diaz; Manuel González-Gómez; María Soledad Otero-Giráldez. 2016. "La modelización de la demanda de turismo de economías emergentes: el caso de la llegada de turistas rusos a España." Cuadernos de Economía 39, no. 110: 112-125.

Original articles
Published: 16 March 2016 in Applied Economics
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The objective of this article is to predict, both in sample and out of sample, the consumer price index (CPI) of the US economy based on monthly data covering the period of 1980:1–2013:12, using a variety of linear (random walk (RW), autoregressive (AR) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA)) and nonlinear (artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic programming (GP)) univariate models. Our results show that, while the SARIMA model is superior relative to other linear and nonlinear models, as it tends to produce smaller forecast errors; statistically, these forecasting gains are not significant relative to higher-order AR and nonlinear models, though simple benchmarks like the RW and AR(1) models are statistically outperformed. Overall, we show that in terms of forecasting the US CPI, accounting for nonlinearity does not necessarily provide us with any statistical gains.

ACS Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Rangan Gupta. Forecasting US consumer price index: does nonlinearity matter? Applied Economics 2016, 48, 4462 -4475.

AMA Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz, Rangan Gupta. Forecasting US consumer price index: does nonlinearity matter? Applied Economics. 2016; 48 (46):4462-4475.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Rangan Gupta. 2016. "Forecasting US consumer price index: does nonlinearity matter?" Applied Economics 48, no. 46: 4462-4475.

Research article
Published: 01 October 2015 in Tourism Economics
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The main goal of this study is to estimate the price and income elasticity of demand for tourism to Spain. This estimation is done separately for the major international source markets for Spain: Germany, the UK, Italy and the Netherlands. For this purpose, the authors use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration and the bootstrap method to construct empirical confidence intervals for each estimate. The results reveal that the tourism demand in all the countries studied has a similar income elasticity, which is approximately unitary. However, there is an important difference with regard to price elasticity: tourism demand from the UK is statistically price inelastic, but demand is elastic for the remaining countries. This finding is relevant because, first, it underlines the importance of studying the source markets separately instead of analysing an aggregate international tourism demand, and, second, it supports the need to implement different tourism policies and strategies with respect to the pricing decisions for each source market.

ACS Style

Marcos Álvarez-Diaz; Manuel González-Gómez; Maria Soledad Otero-Giráldez. Research Note: Estimating Price and Income Demand Elasticities for Spain Separately by the Major Source Markets. Tourism Economics 2015, 21, 1103 -1110.

AMA Style

Marcos Álvarez-Diaz, Manuel González-Gómez, Maria Soledad Otero-Giráldez. Research Note: Estimating Price and Income Demand Elasticities for Spain Separately by the Major Source Markets. Tourism Economics. 2015; 21 (5):1103-1110.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marcos Álvarez-Diaz; Manuel González-Gómez; Maria Soledad Otero-Giráldez. 2015. "Research Note: Estimating Price and Income Demand Elasticities for Spain Separately by the Major Source Markets." Tourism Economics 21, no. 5: 1103-1110.

Journal article
Published: 18 September 2015 in European Journal of Forest Research
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Wildfires cause devastating environmental, social and economic effects in different regions of the world. The aim of this study was to analyze the long-run relationship between the number of ignition events and socioeconomic variables using time series data. We focus on Galicia, a region in the northwest part of the Iberian Peninsula and with one of the highest fire density and largest burned areas in Europe. Since the late 1980s, the number of forest fires has increased in Galicia and caused extensive damage to the environment, property and human life. The analysis is based on cointegration tests between variables. In order to avoid the problems related to spurious regression, the ARDL bounds testing approach was applied. The statistical evidence allows us to conclude that in the long term, the price of eucalyptus timber, the population in the primary sector and the intensity of the elections are relevant factors in explaining the start of forest fires. These three variables are found to increase the propensity of the population to start a fire that cause devastating environmental, social and economic effects.

ACS Style

Marcos Alvarez-Diaz; Manuel González-Gómez; María Soledad Otero-Giraldez. Detecting the socioeconomic driving forces of the fire catastrophe in NW Spain. European Journal of Forest Research 2015, 134, 1087 -1094.

AMA Style

Marcos Alvarez-Diaz, Manuel González-Gómez, María Soledad Otero-Giraldez. Detecting the socioeconomic driving forces of the fire catastrophe in NW Spain. European Journal of Forest Research. 2015; 134 (6):1087-1094.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marcos Alvarez-Diaz; Manuel González-Gómez; María Soledad Otero-Giraldez. 2015. "Detecting the socioeconomic driving forces of the fire catastrophe in NW Spain." European Journal of Forest Research 134, no. 6: 1087-1094.

Book chapter
Published: 01 January 2015 in Studies in Political Economy
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Institutional Change in Spain in the second half of the twentieth century has been a story of success. After the Spanish Civil War, a dictatorship was established in the country in 1939 and the political regime implied an institutional design that evolved over time. In 1959 there was an important reform that propelled economic markets and development, and the death of General Franco in 1975 opened up a period of institutional change that conduced to democracy. The new self-enforcing institutional framework that emerged in the political reform of democratization has implied a modern democratic system, the adhesion to the EU and an Europeanization of civil society, a decentralization political process, social and cultural modernization, the making of a Welfare State, and the expansion of the economy. These institutional foundations adequately worked until the Great Recession that has intensely affected the Spanish economy since 2008. The huge economic crisis has implied electoral changes, new social movements, and distrust on political institutions, and understanding these trends is relevant to study how the economic crisis can influence the process of institutional change in Spain. Therefore, this study attempts to provide new and original empirical evidence on the existence of a long-run relationship between economic crisis and political trust in Spain using monthly data. Specifically, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration is employed to discover such relationship and to quantify the impact of the economic crisis on the Spanish political trust. The empirical findings indicate that the economic crisis has a negative impact on political trust and provide an estimation of this effect.

ACS Style

Gonzalo Caballero; Marcos Álvarez-Díaz. Institutional Change in Spain from Francoism to Democracy: The Effects of the Great Recession. Studies in Political Economy 2015, 113 -140.

AMA Style

Gonzalo Caballero, Marcos Álvarez-Díaz. Institutional Change in Spain from Francoism to Democracy: The Effects of the Great Recession. Studies in Political Economy. 2015; ():113-140.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gonzalo Caballero; Marcos Álvarez-Díaz. 2015. "Institutional Change in Spain from Francoism to Democracy: The Effects of the Great Recession." Studies in Political Economy , no. : 113-140.

Journal article
Published: 01 January 2015 in Revista Hacienda Pública Española
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ACS Style

Marcos Alvarez-Diaz; Gonzalo Caballero; Baltasar Manzano; Jose M Martin. Assessment of Political Situation over the Business Cycle in Spain: A Time Series. Revista Hacienda Pública Española 2015, 213, 41 -62.

AMA Style

Marcos Alvarez-Diaz, Gonzalo Caballero, Baltasar Manzano, Jose M Martin. Assessment of Political Situation over the Business Cycle in Spain: A Time Series. Revista Hacienda Pública Española. 2015; 213 (4):41-62.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marcos Alvarez-Diaz; Gonzalo Caballero; Baltasar Manzano; Jose M Martin. 2015. "Assessment of Political Situation over the Business Cycle in Spain: A Time Series." Revista Hacienda Pública Española 213, no. 4: 41-62.

Journal article
Published: 01 July 2014 in The North American Journal of Economics and Finance
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ACS Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Shawkat Hammoudeh; Rangan Gupta. Detecting predictable non-linear dynamics in Dow Jones Islamic Market and Dow Jones Industrial Average indices using nonparametric regressions. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance 2014, 29, 22 -35.

AMA Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz, Shawkat Hammoudeh, Rangan Gupta. Detecting predictable non-linear dynamics in Dow Jones Islamic Market and Dow Jones Industrial Average indices using nonparametric regressions. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance. 2014; 29 ():22-35.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Shawkat Hammoudeh; Rangan Gupta. 2014. "Detecting predictable non-linear dynamics in Dow Jones Islamic Market and Dow Jones Industrial Average indices using nonparametric regressions." The North American Journal of Economics and Finance 29, no. : 22-35.