Aim  Investigate the relative abilities of different bioclimatic models and data sets to project species ranges in novel environments utilizing the natural experiment in biogeography provided by Australian Acacia species.Location  Australia, South Africa.Methods  We built bioclimatic models for Acacia cyclops and Acacia pycnantha using two discriminatory correlative models (MaxEnt and Boosted Regression Trees) and a mechanistic niche model (CLIMEX). We fitted models using two training data sets: native‐range data only (‘restricted’) and all available global data excluding South Africa (‘full’). We compared the ability of these techniques to project suitable climate for independent records of the species in South Africa. In addition, we assessed the global potential distributions of the species to projected climate change.Results  All model projections assessed against their training data, the South African data and globally were statistically significant. In South Africa and globally, the additional information contained in the full data set generally improved model sensitivity, but at the expense of increased modelled prevalence, particularly in extrapolation areas for the correlative models. All models projected some climatically suitable areas in South Africa not currently occupied by the species. At the global scale, widespread and biologically unrealistic projections by the correlative models were explained by open‐ended response curves, a problem which was not always addressed by broader background climate space or by the extra information in the full data set. In contrast, the global projections for CLIMEX were more conservative. Projections into 2070 indicated a polewards shift in climate suitability and a decrease in model interpolation area.Main conclusions  Our results highlight the importance of carefully interpreting model projections in novel climates, particularly for correlative models. Much work is required to ensure bioclimatic models performed in a robust and ecologically plausible manner in novel climates. We explore reasons for variations between models and suggest methods and techniques for future improvements.

The ability to ascribe native or alien status to species in a rapidly changing world underpins diverse research fields that overlap with global change and biological invasions via biodiversity. Current definitions generally link alien status to anthropogenic dispersal events, but this can create conflicts for active management and global change adaptation strategies, such as managed relocation and restoration ecology. Here we propose a unifying approach that allows for the incorporation of rapid global change into biological invasion terminology. We introduce the concept of a projected dispersal envelope (PDE) to define the region where a species is or could be native, irrespective of human involvement. The PDE integrates biogeography and niche theory with existing invasion terminology to place a spatial and temporal context on species movements. We draw on a diverse suite of topical organism movements to illustrate these concepts. Our restructured definitions allow for native species to move into or with rapidly shifting climatic regions, as well as identifying the inappropriate introduction of alien species to new areas. Moreover, our definitions framework forms a timely and essential component of adaptation policies and responses for invasive species management and the enhancement of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world.

Petitpierre et al . (Reports, 16 March 2012, p. 1344) conclude that niche shifts are rare for terrestrial plant invaders and that this justifies the use of correlative modeling to project species geographic ranges for biological invasions and climate change. We draw attention to the limitations of their conceptual assumptions and the importance of niche shifts excluded from their analyses.

Recruitment for many arid‐zone plant species is expected to be impacted by the projected increase in soil temperature and prolonged droughts associated with global climate change. As seed dormancy is considered a strategy to avoid unfavorable conditions, understanding the mechanisms underpinning vulnerability to these factors is critical for plant recruitment in intact communities, as well as for restoration efforts in arid ecosystems. This study determined the effects of temperature and water stress on recruitment processes in six grass species in the genus Triodia R.Br. from the Australian arid zone. Experiments in controlled environments were conducted on dormant and less‐dormant seeds at constant temperatures of 25°C, 30°C, 35°C, and 40°C, under well‐watered (Ψ_soil = −0.15 MPa) and water‐limited (Ψ_soil = −0.35 MPa) conditions. Success at three key recruitment stages—seed germination, emergence, and survival—and final seed viability of ungerminated seeds was assessed. For all species, less‐dormant seeds germinated to higher proportions under all conditions; however, subsequent seedling emergence and survival were higher in the more dormant seed treatment. An increase in temperature (35–40°C) under water‐limited conditions caused 95%–100% recruitment failure, regardless of the dormancy state. Ungerminated seeds maintained viability in dry soil; however, when exposed to warm (30–40°C) and well‐watered conditions, loss of viability was greater from the less‐dormant seeds across all species. This work demonstrates that the transition from seed to established seedling is highly vulnerable to microclimatic constraints and represents a critical filter for plant recruitment in the arid zone. As we demonstrate temperature and water stress‐driven mortality between seeds and established seedlings, understanding how these factors influence recruitment in other arid‐zone species should be a high priority consideration for management actions to mitigate the impacts of global change on ecosystem resilience. The knowledge gained from these outcomes must be actively incorporated into restoration initiatives.

Logged and disturbed forests are often viewed as degraded and depauperate environments compared with primary forest. However, they are dynamic ecosystems¹ that provide refugia for large amounts of biodiversity^2,3, so we cannot afford to underestimate their conservation value⁴. Here we present empirically defined thresholds for categorizing the conservation value of logged forests, using one of the most comprehensive assessments of taxon responses to habitat degradation in any tropical forest environment. We analysed the impact of logging intensity on the individual occurrence patterns of 1,681 taxa belonging to 86 taxonomic orders and 126 functional groups in Sabah, Malaysia. Our results demonstrate the existence of two conservation-relevant thresholds. First, lightly logged forests (68%) of their biomass removed, and these are likely to require more expensive measures to recover their biodiversity value. Overall, our data confirm that primary forests are irreplaceable⁵, but they also reinforce the message that logged forests retain considerable conservation value that should not be overlooked.