The net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation—a critical component of ecosystem carbon cycling and a key indicator of the quality and functionality of ecosystems—is jointly influenced by natural and anthropogenic factors. As NPP is a vital agricultural and ecological region in China, understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of vegetation NPP in the North China Plain (NCP) has significant implications for regional sustainable development. Utilizing MODIS NPP, temperature, precipitation, and human activity data from 2003 to 2023, this study employs univariate linear regression, ArcGIS spatial analysis, and the Hurst index to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics, driving factors, and future trends in vegetation NPP. The results indicate that vegetation NPP exhibited a fluctuating upward trend over the 21-year period, with an annual increase of 2.60 g C/m². Spatially, NPP displayed a “high in the south, low in the north” pattern. There is significant spatial heterogeneity between temperature, precipitation, and vegetation NPP in the study area, with natural factors generally exerting a greater influence than human activities; however, the coupling of human activities with other factors significantly amplify their impact. The Hurst index (mean: 0.43) revealed an anti-persistent future trend in vegetation NPP, suggesting substantial uncertainties regarding its long-term dynamics. These findings enhance our understanding of the responses of vegetation to global change and provide a scientific basis for balancing food security and ecological conservation in the NCP.

Soil microbial communities face the combined pressures of climate change and biodiversity loss, yet how these stressors interact to shape ecosystem function remains a critical uncertainty. To investigate this, we established a constructed grassland plant community and conducted a fully factorial experiment manipulating plant diversity (1, 3, and 6 species), temperature (ambient, +2 °C), and precipitation (ambient, +50%). High-throughput 16S rRNA gene sequencing revealed that plant diversity exerted a stronger influence on soil bacterial community structure than did warming or precipitation changes. Beta diversity analysis revealed a distinct clustering of bacterial communities corresponding to the plant diversity gradient. This shift was characterized by a consistent enrichment of the metabolically versatile genus Sphingomonas in medium-diversity plots that experienced elevated precipitation, suggesting a predicted potential for enhanced organic matter decomposition. Despite overall stability in alpha diversity, the interaction between plant diversity and warming significantly modulated bacterial diversity and dominance patterns. Our findings highlight that plant diversity plays a key role in mediating soil bacterial responses to simulated climate factors in the short term. Incorporating these plant–soil feedback mechanisms into ecological models appears crucial for advancing predictions of ecosystem dynamics under future climate conditions.

Against the backdrop of climate change and compounded by human activities, increasing water scarcity has triggered a series of drought disasters, which have already severely impacted both ecological environments and socioeconomic production. The SWAT model, recognized for its strong portability and superior spatial heterogeneity, has gained widespread acceptance in fields such as hydrology and environmental science, and is extensively applied in hydrological simulation studies across large-scale river basins. Hydrological models of the study area can be constructed in the SWAT model to simulate changes in hydrological variables by conducting spatial discretization, parameter specification, and boundary condition definition. Standardized drought index can effectively reflect the spatiotemporal variations in drought disasters, holding significant importance for clarifying and predicting drought characteristics. This study took the Luanhe River Basin as the research area, constructed a watershed hydrological model based on SWAT, and projected changes in the basin’s hydrological processes for the period 2030–2060. Based on the model’s projected data, we calculated drought indices and extracted drought events for the basin. The results indicate the following: (1) During the simulation period, only 30% of the years in the Luanhe River basin had annual runoff above the long-term average, with a range of 228.18 mm. The range of mean annual runoff across sub-basins was 173.32 mm. Drought and uneven water resource allocation over both spatial and temporal scales coexisted, and this issue is expected to intensify under future climate warming and drying. (2) The mid-reaches of the Luanhe River are more prone to drought compared to the upper reaches for its higher water demand. However, due to a stronger capacity for ecological restoration, droughts there are mostly of low intensity in the mid-reaches. In contrast, the upper reaches experience more periods classified as severe or extreme drought, and the drought events encountered are generally more intense than those in the mid-reaches. (3) The method proposed in this study can screen extreme drought events based on outliers in the characteristic values of drought events. Taking the simulation from this study as an illustration, anomalies in drought event characteristic values suggest a potential basin-scale, prolonged extreme drought event in the Luanhe River Basin from June 2038 to July 2042. Proactive drought prevention policies should be formulated for this period. The findings of this study provide guiding significance and practical value for drought assessment, risk management, and policy application in the Luanhe River Basin. This study methodologically combines hydrological model predictions with drought event responses, providing a novel method for predicting basin-scale drought conditions and issuing early warnings for extreme drought events.

Urban expansion exerts substantial pressure on regional ecosystems; however, how these effects propagate through direct and indirect pathways at the urban agglomeration scale remains insufficiently understood. Using nighttime light (NTL) and statistical yearbook data, we extracted the built-up areas across the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region using a threshold-based approach to characterize expansion dynamics from 1992 to 2022. Furthermore, we applied the PKU GIMMS NDVI dataset within a conceptual framework to quantify the direct and indirect effects of built-up area expansion on vegetation. Expansion patterns varied markedly among cities: Beijing demonstrated concentric outward growth, Tianjin exhibited dual-core development, and cities in eastern and southern Hebei followed a leapfrog, dispersed pattern. Expansion rates and intensities also diverged considerably: Beijing and Tianjin sustained prolonged, high-intensity growth, whereas cities in northern and western Hebei expanded more gradually. The centroid of built-up areas remained relatively stable in Beijing and Tianjin but shifted in other cities, where expansion concentrated along one or two primary axes. Direct negative effects, driven by impervious surface expansion, intensified with increasing urbanization pressure, reaching approximately −54% in rapidly expanding urban agglomerations by 2007 and peaking at −67.43% at the city scale in Beijing by 2022. In contrast, indirect effects exhibited pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity: they fluctuated in rapidly expanding urban agglomerations but increased markedly in other areas after 2012. The strongest indirect positive effect peaked at the city level (64.85% in Handan in 2022), suggesting gradual vegetation recovery toward the end of the study period. These findings suggest that moderate-growth cities with remaining green space may exhibit relatively stronger ecological compensation potential, but this pattern requires further validation across broader urban agglomerations. This underscores the need for spatially differentiated planning to balance urban growth and ecological sustainability.