With the globally increasing electricity demand, its related uncertainties are on the rise as well. Therefore, a deeper insight of load forecasting techniques for projecting future electricity demands becomes imperative for business entities and policy makers. The electricity demand is governed by a set of different variables or “electricity demand determinants”. These demand determinants depend on forecasting horizons (long term, medium term, and short term), the load aggregation level, climate, and socio-economic activities. In this paper, a review of different electricity demand forecasting methodologies is provided in the context of a group of low and middle income countries. The article presents a comprehensive literature review by tabulating the different demand determinants used in different countries and forecasting the trends and techniques used in these countries. A comparative review of these forecasting methodologies over different time horizons reveals that the time series modeling approach has been extensively used while forecasting for long and medium terms. For short term forecasts, artificial intelligence-based techniques remain prevalent in the literature. Furthermore, a comparative analysis of the demand determinants in these countries indicates a frequent use of determinants like the population, GDP, weather, and load data over different time horizons. Following the analysis, potential research gaps are identified, and recommendations are provided, accordingly.
The electricity supply sector in Pakistan has performed poorly in recent years. Reforms were introduced in the mid-1990s to improve the sector, but progressed slowly with no significant impacts on pre-reform performance. This study uses new institutional economics as a theoretical basis to elucidate reasons for the failure of power sector reforms in Pakistan to make improvements. Interviews with 23 experts using Q-methodology generated 215 statements that were used as a Q concourse. Of these, 51 statements were selected for the Q sample and ranked by 34 respondents depending on their importance. Analysis revealed four important discourses on the determinants of power sector reform failure in Pakistan. These included weak governance structure, country and sectoral endowments, inefficient regulator and unspecified political institutions or unfriendly political contexts. The study recommends establishment of institutions that support a market based power supply sector and improvements to the contractual arrangements between stakeholders to reduce opportunistic behaviour