Assessment of spatial and temporal variation in the impacts of ozone on human health, vegetation, and climate requires appropriate metrics. A key component of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is the consistent calculation of these metrics at thousands of monitoring sites globally. Investigating temporal trends in these metrics required that the same statistical methods be applied across these ozone monitoring sites. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test (for significant trends) and the Theil-Sen estimator (for estimating the magnitude of trend) were selected to provide robust methods across all sites. This paper provides the scientific underpinnings necessary to better understand the implications of and rationale for selecting a specific TOAR metric for assessing spatial and temporal variation in ozone for a particular impact. The rationale and underlying research evidence that influence the derivation of specific metrics are given. The form of 25 metrics (4 for model-measurement comparison, 5 for characterization of ozone in the free troposphere, 11 for human health impacts, and 5 for vegetation impacts) are described. Finally, this study categorizes health and vegetation exposure metrics based on the extent to which they are determined only by the highest hourly ozone levels, or by a wider range of values. The magnitude of the metrics is influenced by both the distribution of hourly average ozone concentrations at a site location, and the extent to which a particular metric is determined by relatively low, moderate, and high hourly ozone levels. Hence, for the same ozone time series, changes in the distribution of ozone concentrations can result in different changes in the magnitude and direction of trends for different metrics. Thus, dissimilar conclusions about the effect of changes in the drivers of ozone variability (e.g., precursor emissions) on health and vegetation exposure can result from the selection of different metrics.
China's economic growth has significantly increased emissions of tropospheric ozone (O3) precursors, resulting in increased regional O3 pollution. We analyzed data from >1400 monitoring stations and estimated the exposure of population and vegetation (crops and forests) to O3 pollution across China in 2015. Based on WHO metrics for human health protection, the current O3 level leads to +0.9% premature mortality (59,844 additional cases a year) with 96% of populated areas showing O3-induced premature death. For vegetation, O3 reduces annual forest tree biomass growth by 11-13% and yield of rice and wheat by 8% and 6%, respectively, relative to conditions below the respective AOT40 critical levels (CL). These CLs are exceeded over 98%, 75% and 83% of the areas of forests, rice and wheat, respectively. Using O3 exposure-response functions, we evaluated the costs of O3-induced losses in rice (7.5 billion US$), wheat (11.1 billion US$) and forest production (52.2 billion US$) and SOMO35-based morbidity for respiratory diseases (690.9 billion US$) and non-accidental mortality (7.5 billion US$), i.e. a total O3-related cost representing 7% of the China Gross Domestic Product in 2015.
Background: The paper presents an overview of air quality in the 27 member countries of the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (previous EU-28), from 2000 to 2017. We reviewed the progress made towards meeting the air quality standards established by the EU Ambient Air Quality Directives (European Council Directive 2008/50/EC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Guidelines by estimating the trends (Mann-Kendal test) in national emissions of main air pollutants, urban population exposure to air pollution, and in mortality related to exposure to ambient fine particles (PM2.5) and tropospheric ozone (O3). Results: Despite significant reductions of emissions (e.g., sulfur oxides: ~ 80%, nitrogen oxides: ~ 46%, non-methane volatile organic compounds: ~ 44%, particulate matters with a diameter lower than 2.5 µm and 10 µm: ~ 30%), the EU-28 urban population was exposed to PM2.5 and O3 levels widely exceeding the WHO limit values for the protection of human health. Between 2000 and 2017, the annual PM2.5-related number of deaths decreased (- 4.85 per 106 inhabitants) in line with a reduction of PM2.5 levels observed at urban air quality monitoring stations. The rising O3 levels became a major public health issue in the EU-28 cities where the annual O3-related number of premature deaths increased (+ 0.55 deaths per 106 inhabitants). Conclusions: To achieve the objectives of the Ambient Air Quality Directives and mitigate air pollution impacts, actions need to be urgently taken at all governance levels. In this context, greening and re‐naturing cities and the implementation of fresh air corridors can help meet air quality standards, but also answer to social needs, as recently highlighted by the COVID-19 lockdowns.
12 October 2017 in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
The impact of ground-level ozone (O3) on vegetation is largely under-investigated at the global scale despite large areas worldwide that are exposed to high surface O3 levels. To explore future potential impacts of O3 on vegetation, we compared historical and projected surface O3 concentrations simulated by six global atmospheric chemistry transport models on the basis of three representative concentration pathways emission scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5). To assess changes in the potential surface O3 threat to vegetation at the global scale, we used the AOT40 metric. Results point out a significant exceedance of AOT40 in comparison with the recommendations of UNECE for the protection of vegetation. In fact, many areas of the Northern Hemisphere show that AOT40-based critical levels will be exceeded by a factor of at least 10 under RCP8.5. Changes in surface O3 by 2100 worldwide range from about +4–5 ppb in the RCP8.5 scenario to reductions of about 2–10 ppb in the most optimistic scenario, RCP2.6. The risk of O3 injury for vegetation, through the potential O3 impact on photosynthetic assimilation, decreased by 61 and 47 % under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, respectively, and increased by 70 % under RCP8.5. Key biodiversity areas in southern and northern Asia, central Africa and North America were identified as being at risk from high O3 concentrations.