Agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs) signify the progressive trajectory of modern agriculture. However, their development encounters significant challenges in many nations. The digital economy, characterized by its strong innovative capacity, offers continuous impetus for advancing agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs). Based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2014–2023), this study employs a two-way fixed-effects model, mediation and threshold effect analyses, and a spatial Durbin model to comprehensively assess the influence of the digital economy (DE) on agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs). The findings reveal that (1) the digital economy (DE) significantly enhances the advancement of agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs); (2) while its positive effect is pronounced in eastern, central, and western China, the impact is weaker in the northeastern region; (3) rural financial development (RFD) acts as a mediator in the relationship between digital economy (DE) growth and agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs); (4) the digital economy (DE)’s contribution to agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs) demonstrates non-linear trends; and (5) spatially, while the digital economy (DE) boosts the local agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs), it exerts a negative spillover effect on neighboring areas. This research offers fresh empirical insights into the determinants of agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs) and suggests policy measures to support agricultural modernization.

Introduction: The cyclical fluctuations characterized by drastic ups and downs in raw milk prices have long been one of the bottlenecks restricting the high-quality development of the Chinese dairy industry.Methods: To clarify the formation rule of the cyclical fluctuations of raw milk prices in China, this study deeply analyzed the internal mechanism of the periodic fluctuations in raw milk prices from a microscopic perspective. Utilizing price index data from November 2007 to August 2024, we used a two-threshold mechanism transfer model to research the transformation mechanism and duration of the periodic fluctuations in raw milk prices.Results and discussion: The findings indicated that raw milk price fluctuations exhibit nonlinear mechanism transformations at two critical thresholds: a price index of 107.74 (which reflects an approximate increase of 8% after adjusting for seasonal and pricing factors) and a change rate in the price index of 0.016 (approximately 0). A complete price fluctuation cycle of raw milk comprises four phases: the low-price uptrend phase, the high-price uptrend phase, the high-price downtrend phase, and the low-price downtrend phase. Among these phases, the duration of the upward phases is generally longer than that of the downward phases; the duration of the high-price uptrend phase and the low-price downtrend phase exceeds that of the low-price uptrend phase and the high-price downtrend phase, respectively. Hence, relevant policy suggestions are put forward from four main aspects: strengthening source governance, improving the regulatory mechanism, building an early warning system, and establishing a purchase and storage system.

Major animal epidemics are the primary source of uncertainty and operational risk in the pig industry, posing the most significant threat to producers’ stable operations. Ensuring the continuity and stability of investment in animal epidemic prevention and control is a fundamental measure to mitigate the risk of epidemic outbreaks from the source. Using panel data from 18 major pig-breeding provinces in China (2015–2023), this study employs the difference-in-differences (DID) model and the moderation effect model to examine the impact of African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks on the investment in swine epidemic prevention and control, and clarifies the underlying mechanisms driving changes in pig producers’ investment behavior. The results show that the outbreak of ASF has a statistically significant positive impact on farms’ epidemic prevention and control investments. From the perspective of mechanism testing, public investment in regional biosecurity systems effectively reduces farms’ perceived epidemic risk and self-protection costs by improving regional management capacity, generating a substitution effect for private investment. From the perspective of heterogeneity testing, there is significant heterogeneity in the behavior of farm investment in epidemic prevention among farms of different sizes and in different regions. Based on these findings, we suggest that ASF outbreaks should be framed as opportunities to guide farms in upgrading biosecurity infrastructure. Governments should prioritize public prevention and control systems to share private costs, implement targeted and tiered regional prevention strategies, and deliver tailored support to key regions, thereby supporting the safe and sustainable development of the pig industry.