Continental margins are disproportionally important for global primary production, fisheries and CO₂ uptake. However, across the Northeast Atlantic shelves, there has been an ongoing summertime decline of key biota—large diatoms, dinoflagellates and copepods—that traditionally fuel higher tropic levels such as fish, sea birds and marine mammals. Here, we combine multiple time series with in situ process studies to link these declines to summer nutrient stress and increasing proportions of picophytoplankton that can comprise up to 90% of the combined pico‐ and nanophytoplankton biomass in coastal areas. Among the pico‐fraction, it is the cyanobacterium Synechococcus that flourishes when iron and nitrogen resupply to surface waters are diminished. Our field data show how traits beyond small size give Synechococcus a competitive edge over pico‐ and nanoeukaryotes. Key is their ability to grow at low irradiances near the nutricline, which is aided by their superior light‐harvesting system and high affinity to iron. However, minute size and lack of essential biomolecules (e.g. omega‐3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and sterols) render Synechococcus poor primary producers to sustain shelf sea food webs efficiently. The combination of earlier spring blooms and lower summer food quantity and quality creates an increasing period of suboptimal feeding conditions for zooplankton at a time of year when their metabolic demand is highest. We suggest that this nutrition‐related mismatch has contributed to the widespread, ~50% decline in summer copepod abundance we observe over the last 60 years. With Synechococcus clades being prominent from the tropics to the Arctic and their abundances increasing worldwide, our study informs projections of future food web dynamics in coastal and shelf areas where droughts and stratification lead to increasing nutrient starvation of surface waters.

Arctic warming is causing ancient perennially frozen ground (permafrost) to thaw, resulting in ground collapse, and reshaping of landscapes. This threatens Arctic peoples' infrastructure, cultural sites, and land-based natural resources. Terrestrial permafrost thaw and ongoing intensification of hydrological cycles also enhance the amount and alter the type of organic carbon (OC) delivered from land to Arctic nearshore environments. These changes may affect coastal processes, food web dynamics and marine resources on which many traditional ways of life rely. Here, we examine how future projected increases in runoff and permafrost thaw from two permafrost-dominated Siberian watersheds—the Kolyma and Lena, may alter carbon turnover rates and OC distributions through river networks. We demonstrate that the unique composition of terrestrial permafrost-derived OC can cause significant increases to aquatic carbon degradation rates (20 to 60% faster rates with 1% permafrost OC). We compile results on aquatic OC degradation and examine how strengthening Arctic hydrological cycles may increase the connectivity between terrestrial landscapes and receiving nearshore ecosystems, with potential ramifications for coastal carbon budgets and ecosystem structure. To address the future challenges Arctic coastal communities will face, we argue that it will become essential to consider how nearshore ecosystems will respond to changing coastal inputs and identify how these may affect the resiliency and availability of essential food resources.

Microbial degradation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in aquatic environments can cause oxygen depletion, water acidification, and CO₂ emissions. These problems are caused by labile DOC (LDOC) and not refractory DOC (RDOC) that resists degradation and is thus a carbon sink. For nearly a century, chemical oxygen demand (COD) has been widely used for assessment of organic pollution in aquatic systems. Here, we show through a multicountry survey and experimental studies that COD is not an appropriate proxy of microbial degradability of organic matter because it oxidizes both LDOC and RDOC, and the latter contributes up to 90% of DOC in high-latitude forested areas. Hence, COD measurements do not provide appropriate scientific information on organic pollution in natural waters and can mislead environmental policies. We propose the replacement of the COD method with an optode-based biological oxygen demand method to accurately and efficiently assess organic pollution in natural aquatic environments.

We used a numerical model to investigate if and to what extent cellular photoprotective capacity accounts for succession and vertical distribution of marine phytoplankton species/groups. A model describing xanthophyll photoprotective activity in phytoplankton has been implemented in the European Regional Sea Ecosystem Model and applied at the station L4 in the Western English Channel. Primary producers were subdivided into three phytoplankton functional types defined in terms of their capacity to acclimate to different light-specific environments: low light (LL-type), high light (HL-type) and variable light (VL-type) adapted species. The LL-type is assumed to have low cellular level of xanthophyll-cycling pigments (PX) relative to the modelled photosynthetically active pigments (chlorophyll and fucoxanthin (FUCO) = PSP). The HL-type has high PX content relative to PSP while VL-type presents an intermediate PX to PSP ratio. Furthermore, the VL-type is capable of reversibly converting FUCO to PX and synthesizing new PX under high-light stress. In order to reproduce phytoplankton community succession with each of the three groups being dominant in different periods of the year, we had also to assume reduced grazing pressure on HL-adapted species. Model simulations realistically reproduce the observed seasonal patterns of pigments and nutrients highlighting the reasonability of the underpinning assumptions. Our model suggests that pigment-mediated photophysiology plays a primary role in determining the evolution of marine phytoplankton communities in the winter-spring period corresponding to the shoaling of the mixed layer and the increase of light intensity. Grazing selectivity however contributes to the phytoplankton community composition in summer.

Summary: Rapid virus proliferation can exert a powerful control on phytoplankton host populations, playing a significant role in marine biogeochemistry and ecology. We explore how marine lytic viruses impact phytoplankton succession, affecting host and nonhost populations. Using an in silico food web we conducted simulation experiments under a range of different abiotic and biotic conditions, exploring virus–host–grazer interactions and manipulating competition, allometry, motility and cyst cycles. Virus‐host and predator–prey interactions, and interactions with competitors, generate bloom dynamics with a pronounced ‘boom‐and‐busted’ dynamic (BBeD) which leads to the suppression of otherwise potentially successful phytoplankton species. The BBeD is less pronounced at low nutrient loading through distancing of phytoplankton hosts, while high sediment loading and high nonhost biomass decrease the abundance of viruses through adsorption. Larger hosts are inherently more distanced, but motility increases virus attack, while cyst cycles promote spatial and temporal distancing. Virus control of phytoplankton bloom development appears more important than virus‐induced termination of those blooms. This affects plankton succession – not only the growth of species infected by the virus, but also those that compete for the same resources and are collectively subjected to common grazer control. The role of viruses in structuring plankton communities via BBeDs can thus provide an explanation for the paradox of the plankton.