Due to the effects of climate change over the course of the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal change will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we know them today. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies due to projected increased levels of coastal flooding and erosion, coastal managers need local-scale hazards projections using the best available climate and coastal science. In collaboration with leading scientists world-wide, the USGS designed the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) to assess the coastal impacts of climate change for the California coast, including the combination of sea-level rise, storms, and coastal change. In this project, we directly address the needs of coastal resource managers in Southern California by integrating a vast range of global climate change projections in a thorough and comprehensive numerical modeling framework. In Part 1 of a two-part submission on CoSMoS, methods and the latest improvements are discussed, and an example of hazard projections is presented.

This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically computing the combined hazards of sea-level rise, waves, storm surges, astronomic tides, fluvial discharges, and changes in shoreline positions. The method is demonstrated through an application to Southern California, United States, where the shoreline is a mix of bluffs, beaches, highly managed coastal communities, and infrastructure of high economic value. Results show that inclusion of 100-year projected coastal storms will increase flooding by 9–350% (an additional average 53.0 ± 16.0 km²) in addition to a 25–500 cm sea-level rise. The greater flooding extents translate to a 55–110% increase in residential impact and a 40–90% increase in building replacement costs. To communicate hazards and ranges in socio-economic exposures to these hazards, a set of tools were collaboratively designed and tested with stakeholders and policy makers; these tools consist of two web-based mapping and analytic applications as well as virtual reality visualizations. To reach a larger audience and enhance usability of the data, outreach and engagement included workshop-style trainings for targeted end-users and innovative applications of the virtual reality visualizations.

The South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project (SBSPRP) encompasses over 6,000 hectares of former salt production ponds along the south edge of the San Francisco Bay and represents the largest wetland restoration effort on the west coast of North America. A series of studies associated with Phase 1 (2010–2018) restoration activities that are focused on a historically mercury contaminated slough and series of ponds within the restoration area have recently been completed. This report brings together the key findings of these loosely coordinated studies and integrates the results into a more comprehensive and holistic product that informs future restoration activities associated with the SBSPRP and elsewhere. This report documents key findings associated with the breach of pond A6: (1) a short-term spike in slough fish (Mississippi silverside) total mercury concentration in lower Alviso Slough; (2) a short-term spike in surface-water particulate total mercury in lower Alviso Slough; (3) significant sediment scour in Alviso Slough adjacent to and downstream of the breach points; (4) a decrease in surface-sediment methylmercury (as a percentage of total mercury) in lower Alviso Slough; (5) the transport of 70 kilograms per year of sediment-associated total mercury into pond A6 during the first 2 years following the breach but with much of this coming from outside of Alviso Slough, presumably from the nearby shallows, Guadalupe Slough, and the larger southern San Francisco Bay area; and (6) a slowing of bed sediment erosion in lower Alviso Slough 3–5 years after the breaching of pond A6. Although this report is not intended to be prescriptive in terms of the next steps the SBSPRP should or should not take, the totality of the findings presented provide critical process-level information regarding the extent and the duration of spikes in mercury levels in water, sediment, fish, and birds, which appeared to result from the two management actions under study. Thus, these results can be used to anticipate similar ecosystem responses associated with similar management actions that may be considered in the future. We also conclude this report by highlighting unanswered questions associated with mercury dynamics as it relates to the restoration project, and possible future directions for research.