Inundation maps are a fundamental tool for coastal risk management and in particular for designing evacuation maps and evacuation planning. These in turn are a necessary component of the tsunami warning systems’ last-mile. In Italy inundation maps are informed by a probabilistic tsunami hazard model. Based on a given level of acceptable risk, Italian authorities in charge for this task recommended to consider, as design hazard intensity, the average return period of 2500 years and the 84th percentile of the hazard model uncertainty. An available, regional-scale tsunami hazard model was used that covers the entire Italian coastline. Safety factors based on analysis of run-up variability and an empirical coastal dissipation law on a digital terrain model (DTM) were applied to convert the regional hazard into the design run-up and the corresponding evacuation maps with a GIS-based approach. Since the regional hazard cannot fully capture the local-scale variability, this simplified and conservative approach is considered a viable and feasible practice to inform local coastal risk management in the absence of high-resolution hazard models. The present work is a first attempt to quantify the uncertainty stemming from such procedure. We compare the GIS-based inundation maps informed by a regional model with those obtained from a local high-resolution hazard model. Two locations on the coast of eastern Sicily were considered, and the local hazard was addressed with the same seismic model as the regional one, but using a higher-resolution DTM and massive numerical inundation calculations with the GPU-based Tsunami-HySEA nonlinear shallow water code. This study shows that the GIS-based inundation maps used for planning deal conservatively with potential hazard underestimation at the local scale, stemming from typically unmodeled uncertainties in the numerical source and tsunami evolution models. The GIS-based maps used for planning fall within the estimated “error-bar” due to such uncertainties. The analysis also demonstrates the need to develop local assessments to serve very specific risk mitigation actions to reduce the uncertainty. More in general, the presented case-studies highlight the importance to explore ways of dealing with uncertainty hidden within the high-resolution numerical inundation models, e.g., related to the crude parameterization of the bottom friction, or the inaccuracy of the DTM.

We provide here a first-hand description of the coseismic surface effects caused by the Mw 6.4 Petrinja earthquake that hit central Croatia on 29 December 2020. This was one of the strongest seismic events that occurred in Croatia in the last two centuries. Field surveys in the epicentral area allowed us to observe and map primary coseismic effects, including geometry and kinematics of surface faulting, as well as secondary effects, such as liquefaction, sinkholes and landslides. The resulting dataset consists of homogeneous georeferenced records identifying 222 observation points, each of which contains a minimum of 5 to a maximum of 14 numeric and string fields of relevant information. The earthquake caused surface faulting defining a typical ‘conjugate’ fault pattern characterized by Y and X shears, tension cracks (T fractures), and compression structures (P shears) within a ca. 10 km wide (across strike), NW–SE striking right-lateral strike-slip shear zone (i.e., the Petrinja Fault Zone, PFZ). We believe that the results of the field survey provide fundamental information to improve the interpretation of seismological, GPS and InSAR data of this earthquake. Moreover, the data related to the surface faulting may impact future studies focused on earthquake processes in active strike-slip settings, integrating the estimates of slip amount and distribution in assessing the hazard associated with capable transcurrent faults.

SUMMARY: The Mw 6.4 26 November 2019, earthquake has been the strongest in the last decades in Albania, causing damages of intensity VIII to IX EMS in the epicentral region around Durres. The region north of Durres has experienced a maximum uplift of ca. 11 cm, based on SAR interferometry, which represents the main environmental effect induced by the earthquake. Other coseismic environmental effects were liquefaction mostly in the coastal area north and south of Durres, lateral spread in the Erzen river banks and possibly minor rock falls. As a whole, the observed effects are indicative of an intensity VIII to IX in the ESI scale. The rupture parameters that best fits the earthquake data (seismic moment, hypocentre depth, GPS data, deformation field from SAR interferometry), based on Coulomb modelling, show a reverse slip of 0.6 m on a NW–SE trending plane dipping 25° northeast, 20 km long and ca. 12 km wide, from 19.5 to ca. 15 km deep. The surface projection of the upper tip of the rupture is on the coast north of Durres. The inferred Coulomb stress change does not impose any significant load on the surrounding major faults, that is Kruja thrust, Lezha transfer fault, and the offshore thrust fault responsible for the 1979 Mw 7.1 Montenegro earthquake. The historical earthquakes and the regional tectonic setting, dominated by plate collision and important transfer fault zones suggest that the last earthquake might not be representative of the actual maximum seismic and surface faulting hazards in northwestern Albania, a region of fast industrial and touristic growth. This calls for detailed active tectonics studies with a palaeoseismological perspective in the region surrounding the epicentral area, where the two main towns in Albania lie.