Although intensive studies have documented the recent increase in the frequency of the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events, the underlying mechanism remains unclear. This motivates us to investigate the change in the frequency of CP El Niño events. By analyzing the occurrence of the CP El Niño events between 1960 and 2022, we confirm a statistically significant increase in the frequency of CP El Niño events since 2000. Over the 40 years between 1960 and 1999, eight CP El Niño events appeared. In contrast, over the 23 years between 2000 and 2022, six CP El Niño events are seen. The significant period of the CP El Niño shortens from 4–5 years to 2–3 years. The increased frequency of CP El Niño events is closely related to more frequent warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific (5° S–5° N, 170° W–122° W) during the CP El Niño developing phase (June to October). A heat budget analysis of the mixed layer reveals that the SST variability in the central equatorial Pacific during the developing phase is determined by zonal temperature advection. The frequent anomalous warm zonal advection drives more frequent warm SST anomalies, and finally, the increased frequency of CP El Niño events, as observed.
23 April 2025 in Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans